Online Buzz

With huge anticipation for the Modern Warfare sequel, online buzz levels from Nielsen have been consistently strong in the 4 weeks leading up to launch. At three weeks pre-launch, buzz levels spiked after Microsoft confirmed that the special edition Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 bundle would be available for the Xbox 360. Five days prior to release, the game’s launch trailer was posted on YouTube, which caused yet another surge in buzz, further fueled by ongoing discussion of high pre-order rates.

High Game Awareness and Anticipation

Data from Nielsen’s weekly Video Game Tracking service corroborates what the online buzz suggests: Active gamers are aware of and highly eager to experience Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. In addition, there is an expectation that the game will be high-quality. Key metrics for the game have been growing steadily since the title first appeared in tracking in May of this year, with Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 outperforming benchmarks across measures including awareness, purchase interest, rating and purchase urgency.

Active gamers know that Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 will be available, with current unaided awareness six times higher than historical benchmarks (12% vs. 2%, respectively) and aided awareness nearly triple that of the average video game release (71% vs. 26% on average). Last week, nearly half of the gamers aware of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 report seeing the title advertised on television (46%) and approximately one-in-three (30%) note that word-of-mouth through friends, relatives or co-workers contributed to their awareness of the game while almost the same proportion (28%) saw an online preview/review.

While awareness is important, Nielsen data shows Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is also a highly anticipated game, with 3 to 4 times the proportion of gamers in recent weeks indicating they would pre-order or buy the game in its first week of release compared to the average title (9-12% vs. 3% on average). Current definite purchase interest for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is nearly three times higher than for the average title (21% vs. 8%, respectively) and overall purchase interest is almost double (37% vs. 19%, respectively), suggesting strong demand for the title at retail. These potential buyers expect the game to be a good one, with those aware of the game rating it substantially better than average (7.7 vs. 6.8 on a ten-point scale).

Likely to Buy

In addition to buying high-profile titles like Modern Warfare, Nielsen Homescan for Video Game indicates that households that bought the original title spend nearly 3 times the amount of money on video game purchases annually vs. typical video game buying household, and even outspend the average household that purchases shooter titles more broadly. These higher purchase rates make Modern Warfare franchise fans valuable, highly desirable customers at retail – which is perhaps why we see a concerted effort to entice them to not only purchase the game itself, but also special editions and limited-edition consoles.

Nielsen data also shows that households purchasing Modern Warfare (across all platforms) were more likely to have children aged 13 to 17 (index 121), earn a household income of $100,000+ (index 148), and be of Asian descent (index 141) vs. the average game-buying household.

…and Eager to Play

If prior play rates are any indication, PC gamers in particular will be glued to their computers the minute they acquire Modern Warfare 2. Over the last twelve measured months from Nielsen’s GamePlay Metrics metered PC data, we see consistent and vibrant activity for the original Modern Warfare title. The average weekly gameplay on the single game mode was nearly two hours, while multiplayer consumed almost four hours per week. On average, nearly five sessions were logged per week, per player. Of note, multiplayer gameplay peaked in June 2009, when Nvidia sponsored a free multiplayer map pack download: during this month, the average weekly hours jumped to six.

Of course, other titles will have to move over to make room for some PC gamers’ marathon Modern Warfare 2 sessions in the coming weeks. Judging from Nielsen’s GamePlay Metrics, cross-title play data among the most recent (September 2009) players of the original Modern Warfare game, World of Warcraft, Call of Duty: World at War, and Half-Life 2 (in addition to COD: MW) are the most frequently alternately played titles that could experience a blip in PC play with the title’s launch. This list suggests that PC gamers who play the franchise skew toward the more traditional, hardcore gaming audience, corroborated by their 70% male, 54% ages 25-54 profile.

Despite increased optimism about the economy, the social media landscape indicates that we are in a similar place to where we were this time last year when it comes to spending; buzz about Christmas and holiday shopping is down 3% year-over-year. This activity is in line with other research at Nielsen relative to retail expectations and consumers’ personal finances that indicate modest spending from a cautious consumer base.

However, consumers are still buzzing about the gifts they’ve already purchased or are planning to buy in the coming weeks. Notably, online discussion focuses largely on offline shopping.

While online shopping has been rising over the last few years, we’re also finding that consumers are using the internet to find the best deals at retail outlets, toy stores and more. So what happens online, doesn’t always stay online in the new economy where deal hunting is driving buzz.

As consumers count down the days to the holiday season, we see two key trends emerging:

1. Parents are actively buzzing about the must-haves of the season within online communities
2. Buzz about gift cards is on the rise, largely in response to retailers’ use of gift cards as purchase incentives

Games that buzz
When analyzing the product categories shoppers most frequently discuss online, Nielsen found that kid-friendly video games generated more buzz than even the most buzzed-about toys, largely driven by highly engaged gamers. The November 15 release date for New Super Mario Bros is highly anticipated, catapulting this video game to the head of the pack in terms of buzz. Additional buzz in the gaming world has come from price drop and new model announcements for Playstation 3 and XBOX.

Zhu Zhu the next Tickle Me Elmo?
Buzz supports Toys “R” Us’ “Fabulous 15″ predictions for the 2009 holiday season, with Zhu Zhu Pets, Bakugan Brawlers and Transformers Revenge of the Fallen figurines topping the list of the most frequently buzzed about toys.

Shoppers deem Zhu Zhu Pets the hot toy of the season as parents swap stories of empty shelves and elevated prices at retailers. An emerging Zhu Zhu market has also sprung up on eBay. Strong buzz on LeapFrog’s educational toys are a holdover from the 2008 holiday season; parents are especially interested in the Leapster and Tag Reader product lines this season.

Gift Cards buzz is on the rise, buoyed by incentive programs
A growing proportion of online conversation focuses on gift cards—including gift cards awarded as purchase incentives (15% growth in buzz year-over-year, September 2008 vs. September 09). Amazon.com and Toys “R” Us have experienced the largest year-over-year growth in buzz about gift cards of the retailers and brands measured.

This increased interest in gift cards is largely driven by retailers bundling gift cards with purchase incentives. Gift card bundles essentially provide shoppers with two sets of gifts: the original purchase and the gift card which can either be given as a gift or used to buy more holiday presents. These incentives tend to generate a sizable amount of discussion online—especially when tied to the gaming category. For example, Amazon.com recently coupled a price break on Wii with a $25 gift card, generating a surge in online conversation about Amazon.

Retailers who do not currently use gift cards to encourage purchases may want to consider taking advantage of this growing opportunity during the holiday season.

Related: Watch Nielsen’s Ken Cassar Discuss Online Holiday Sales CNBC

Uncharted 2 Shows Improved Strength in Key Tracking Metrics Compared to Predecessor

An examination of data from Nielsen’s weekly Video Game Tracking service finds that Uncharted 2 garners more robust numbers throughout the measurement periods listed across metrics such as aided awareness, Pre-Order/Buy First Week and Definite and Definite/Probable Purchase Interest compared to the original Uncharted. The data table compares both titles across the aforementioned metrics at different points prior to their respective release dates*.

Comparison of Awareness and Purchase Interest

The sequel enjoys more than double the aided awareness of its predecessor across all points in the comparison period, with more than 40 percent of all PS3 gamers interviewed one week prior to the release of Uncharted 2 recognizing the title, compared to 17 percent for the original game same during the same time period.

The proportion of PS3 gamers who indicated high purchase urgency for Uncharted 2 – those who would pre-order the game or buy it during its first week of release – is three times higher for Uncharted 2 one week prior to its release than for the original title (9% vs. 3%., respectively).

Overall, 30 percent of PS3 gamers note positive purchase interest for Uncharted 2 one week prior to its release (14% definite), double the number who indicated interest in Uncharted during the same time period (14% positive purchase interest, 7% definite interest).

Comparison of Sources of Awareness

Online reviews/previews are the single greatest source of awareness for both Uncharted 2 and the original game among PS3 gamers one week prior to retail release. However, such reviews/previews are substantially higher for Uncharted 2, with 42 percent of PS3 gamers who are aware of the game noting that they have seen such online articles compared to 29 percent for the original Uncharted.

BuzzMetrics

Examining the three months leading up to their respective release dates, online chatter for Uncharted 2 was consistently higher than for the original game. Approximately four weeks before the launch of Uncharted 2, a spike in buzz occurred around the time the demo was released on PlayStation Network, indicating potential heightened awareness of the game within the online PlayStation community.

BuzzMetrics Comparison of Uncharted 2 with the original Uncharted

Looking at Nielsen’s Video Game Tracking data 3 months prior to the release of The Beatles: Rock Band on September 9, consumers registered good awareness and modest purchase interest of the title at the time. However, during the week of its release, awareness and purchase interest numbers jumped substantially for The Beatles: Rock Band across almost all age ranges, most likely due to the mass media coverage of both the game and re-release of the band’s master recordings.

Purchase interest metrics for The Beatles: Rock Band within the 35 to 54 age bracket jumped higher this past week, perhaps due to widespread media coverage/buzz. The traditional audiences for The Beatles skew older than those of Aerosmith and Metallica, but so far purchase interest levels for The Beatles: Rock Band among this age range appear on-par with these two other band-themed games.

Beatles still buzz

Online buzz and media coverage for The Beatles: Rock Band peaked the day of the video game release, which coincided with the release of remastered versions of The Beatles’ catalog (and false rumors the catalog would be available on iTunes). Buzz levels specific to The Beatles: Rock Band game soared to more than five times the levels of buzz generated by Guitar Hero 5 on its launch date.

“Casual games are very popular, especially in this economic environment, and they enjoy a broader audience than typical, hardcore PC games,” said Brad Raczka, marketing analyst for Nielsen’s Games division. “Not only does casual gaming draw in traditional ‘gamers’ such as teens and young adults, but also prime advertising targets such as stay-at-home moms, retired people and younger kids.”

Based on data from the first six months of 2009,  41 million Americans play casual games on average. Of the top 20 casual game titles that Nielsen tracked in May 2009, card games, played by 88 percent of casual gamers, were by far the most popular. Puzzle games were a distant second at 9.5 percent.

Casual gamers spend less than half the time non-casual gamers do in each session. While casual game sessions lasted an average of 31 minutes, non-casual was more than double, at 80 minutes per session (World of Warcraft helped bump up this average, with an average play time of nearly 120 minutes).

Casual Gamers Come Back For More

Measured over a seven-month period, the recurring game play rate for casual games was found to match or exceed that for non-casual games. For example, about 20 percent of the 47 million unique gamers who played Microsoft Solitaire at least once during the seven-month period, came back to the game at least once in each of the seven months measured. By comparison, about 12 percent of the 5 million World of Warcraft players who played the game in two or more months returned to it at least once every month.

Cost does not make a significant impact in whether players come back to the games month after month. Nielsen found similar recurring game play rates between those using the free Microsoft Solitaire to those playing the for-charge Great Escapes Solitaire.

Females make up the majority of casual gamers (58 percent), a significant shift from non-casual games, which are much more of a man’s world. Males make up a full 75 percent of those playing non-casual shooter games, and 63 percent of those playing role-playing games. The players of non-casual games also tend to have computers with much more memory, averaging over 2 gigabytes, compared with the relatively modest 0.5 to 1 gigabytes of the casual gamers.

Download Nielsen’s Insights on Casual Games

• Madden NFL 10 dominates the sports genre in several metrics, including unaided and aided awareness and definite purchase interest among active gamers.

• Unaided awareness for Madden NFL 10 for the week of August 2nd is a very robust 14% overall and a whopping 31% among Males 18 to 24. The next highest title mentioned during the same time period, Wii Sports Resort (released July 26), has roughly half the unaided awareness among active gamers (8%).

Platform Preference & Age Differences

• In terms of platform preference, 30% of over 9,200 gamers interested in purchasing Madden NFL 10 indicate Xbox 360 as their system of choice. This outpaces PS3 (23%), PS2 (20%) and Wii (17%).
• In terms of age, younger gamers (13 to 24) over-index for the Xbox 360 version, with the PS3 skewing older (18 to 34). Gamers 35 to 54 indicate Wii as their preferred platform (24%) just above Xbox 360 (23%), PS2 (22%) and PS3 (19%).
• Among the always desirable male 18 to 24 gamers, Xbox 360 had the highest platform choice for Madden NFL 10 at 42%, with PS3 (28%) and PS2 (15%) following behind.

Purchase Urgency – Some like it hot… (off the presses)

• 22% of gamers interested in purchasing Madden NFL 10 indicate they would either pre-order the game or buy it during the first week of its release. Another 29% indicated they would buy it in new condition after the first week of release, showing that over 50% of interested gamers have a high urgency to purchase the game early.

Other notable trends from June 2009 show:

• Video game consoles are not just being played by kids – just under 50% of gameplay came from adults 18+
• Teenagers 12-17 have the largest percent of play, which accounted for 25% of gaming in June
• Xbox 360 and PS2 are now neck and neck in terms of minutes played per month, yet June data shows Xbox 360 is the most active console, with the 6-month trend show Xbox 360 with the highest active users



• PlayStation consoles tend to be more gender neutral than other consoles. Xbox 360 continues to skew more male and Wii continue to skew more female.

• More Americans are playing the newer consoles. Nielsen data shows that current generation consoles, such as Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii, made up 50% of total share of minutes in June 2009, while last generation consoles, such as Xbox, PS2 and Gamecube, made up only 31% of total minutes. Use of older gaming consoles (PS One, Atari 2600, Nintendo 64, Sega Genesis, etc.) made up the 19% balance of usage minutes for the month.

By comparing consumer response from Video Game Tracking before and after the name change, key metrics such as aided awareness, definite purchase interest and total positive purchase interest jumped once Modern Warfare 2 was re-branded as Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.

“Primarily, we believe mainstream gamers are playing more of the broadly appealing games (i.e Wii Fit, Guitar Hero and Rock Band) pushing their hours of gameplay up,” said Michael Flamberg, director of client consulting, Nielsen Games. “The social aspects of these games have engaged them. We don’t believe hardcore gamers are driving up the usage averages we’ve observed. Second, gamers may be looking to stretch their entertainment dollar further through playing games they own more. The importance of value for them is evident in the findings on used game purchase.”

In terms of why new game sales have been soft, Nielsen offers three contributing factors that explain this:

1. Used game purchasing is at all-time highs in 2009, looking back since 2006. Claims about how many used games are being purchased in absolute terms and as a share of the total (used vs. new) have increased substantially (see graph). This is corroborated by GameStop’s record-breaking first quarter financial results, on the strength of used game sales. Best Buy recently announced it was getting into the used game market as well and Wal-Mart is testing this out.
2. There has been an uptick in claimed subscriptions to video game rental services by mail, to all-time highs since 2006 (14% of gamers in May). This is a plausible substitute for new game purchasing.
3. New game sales have been soft compared to last year in part because of unfavorable title comparisons in terms of how popular the releases have been this spring vs. last spring. This is a hit driven business and there haven’t been as many hits. Awareness of new titles, when prompted with their names, has dipped in 2009 to lows not seen since 2007.

For more, download The Value Gamer: Play and Purchase Behavior in a Recession and read the coverage in the Los Angeles Times.

A gamer is defined as claiming to have purchased a title in the past 6 months and played for at least 1 hour per week on any of the current consoles or the PC.

According to recent data from Nielsen’s Video Game Tracking survey, movie-themed games are driving substantial purchase interest among gamers. X-Men Origins: Wolverine tops the list in terms of total positive purchase interest (definitely or probably interested in buying) for the week of its release. It is joined at the top by several other franchises with large box office releases including Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and Terminator Salvation. Looking back a few months, Godfather II scored well relative to others to take second place despite the fact that the movie was released in 1974. Looking ahead, Batman: Arkham Asylum is tied for fifth place but is two months away from release at the end of August. Purchase interest will likely increase to perhaps eclipse all others on this list by the end of the summer. The much anticipated Ghostbusters: The Video Game based on the classic film was released last week and ranked fourth in purchase interest but outpaced all other titles in share of online buzz.

Nearly a quarter of all movie-related video game buzz over the last 60 days is attributed to Ghostbusters, which was released on June 16. Titles related to summer blockbuster hits also generate moderate buzz, with Terminator: Salvation and X-Men Origins: Wolverine getting roughly equal attention in discussion online. Godfather II’s low share of conversation is likely because of the timeframe of this analysis, which goes back to late April which is after the game was released. Several movie-related games geared to a younger audience, including Hannah Montana: The Movie, Night at the Museum 2 and Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaur, generated less buzz than their counterparts.