Although retailers have been thinking about the 2009 holiday season since last January, consumers are just starting to think about their holiday plans. As we do every year, Nielsen fielded its annual holiday retail survey at the beginning of this month to get an understanding of consumers’ holiday shopping plans.  While the economy appears to be improving at a snail’s pace, it’s apparent that many consumers intend to spend less and save more this holiday season. In fact, some 42 percent of respondents stated that compared to a year ago they were planning on spending less money on holiday gifts, compared with only 4 percent who intend to spend more.

An even more surprising trend is that of the money that consumers plan to spend this holiday season, a smaller percentage will be spent online: 63 percent of survey respondents said that they would do at least some holiday shopping online, down 10 points from two years ago. Meanwhile, 7 percent of respondents said they would not do any shopping online compared to just 1 percent in 2007.

Consumers Expect to Spend Less Money Online this Year

Among those that do plan to shop online this holiday season, many consumers expect to spend significantly less than last year. In 2008, 42 percent answered that they would spend more than $300 online during the holiday season. This year, that percentage has dropped to just 31 percent, while 22 percent of respondents said that they are going to spend less than $100 online.

So why do some consumers shop online? Interestingly, the main reason is not to save money, but for convenience. Respondents said the top reason they would shop online was the ability to shop whenever they wanted, followed closely by the ability to avoid the large crowds associated with holiday shopping.

While consumers appear to no longer view the Internet as a value channel, they still see it as a place to do comparison shopping, find coupons and do research. And it’s not just consumers coming from lower household incomes–shoppers of all ages and income levels rely on the Internet to inform their in-store purchases. In October 2009, over one-third of the U.S. online population visited at least one deal-oriented Web site.

Although many consumers don’t feel that they save money by making purchases online, they do view the Internet as a deal-seeking venue. When asked how they use the Internet before going shopping in physical stores, 55 percent of respondents said they use the Internet to compare prices across retailers and 49 percent answered that they use the Web to learn about sales and promotions available in physical stores.

It is clear that while the majority of all purchases continue to take place offline, the Internet has an important role to play—deals found online impact holiday purchase decisions and drive purchases at brick and mortar locations.

For more information and insights on the 2009 holiday season, download our recent webinar,2009 Holiday Retail Season: What Consumers Have in Store for Retailers this Season.

“It was resoundingly clear from the presentations that we have a new consumer on our hands, one that has emerged from the financial crisis with what could be a permanent shift in their values, spending habits and lifestyle choices and affecting the way they consumer and purchase alcohol.  They are more frugal and demanding value.  Investing in new product development should be an essential part of any suppliers’ strategy in counteracting consumers’ heavy reliance on price discounts as a key purchase driver,” said Michael Walton, Executive Director, Nielsen Liquor Group in the Pacific.

Nielsen’s regional experts also provided a snapshot of trends in their respective markets.  The four key topics that were common across regions were:

• Low carb and low sugar: new products and brand extensions in this category are performing relatively well.
• Marketing to the over 50s demographic: This group makes up between 40-50 percent of alcohol consumers in the UK, US, Australia and New Zealand, yet are often overlooked when it comes to marketing in favor of a millennial focus.
• Online consumers: New ways and approaches to marketing to the technologically savvy consumer.
• New product development: A critical pathway to improve returns and drive real category growth.

Gavin Humphreys noted that just 57 percent of British beer drinkers popped over to the pub in 2009, compared to 70.5 percent in 1998.  In fact, the off-trade sector looks set to overtake share of beer consumption over the next two years.  While beer remains the favorite, wine is rapidly gaining share, driven by its link with in-home entertaining and also the availability of cheaper South African, Italian and Chilean varietals.

In the U.S., Danny Brager noted that more than 50 percent of Americans choose to entertain and eat at home more often.  Consumers are often trading down in an effort to find the best value, favoring domestic offerings and sticking with brands they know and trust.

Paul Kirby said that almost half of Australian drinkers claimed to be going out less often compared to last year, but are actually trading up when they do go out, sparking growth in premium and super premium alcohol segments (imported beer, international wine and bottled wine priced over $20).  Almost half of all packaged liquor was sold on promotion and 77 percent of alcohol consumers selecting their choice of outlet because it offered great promotions.

Just to the southeast, 60 percent of New Zealanders claimed to be going out less often compared to last year, according to David Hanson.  Annual sales for the off-premise market grew by 10 percent in value terms and 7 percent in volume.  More than three-quarters (77%) of all beer sales were sold on promotion.

But just one year later, gas prices have fallen considerably.  In June and July of 2009, the average price per gallon for regular gas was between $2.50 to $2.62.  According to the seventh update to Nielsen’s gas price impact survey, lower gas prices have loosened up consumers’ behavior, although not to pre-2008 levels.  For example, 71 percent of respondents said that they were still combining errands and trips in an effort to save gas – down from a year ago, but still above the 68 percent who said the same in 2007.  Another 44 percent said that they were doing more things at home, down from 51 percent in 2008 but still higher than the 39 percent in 2007.  One area that consumers have not yet rushed back to is eating out: 52 percent said that they were eating out less, the same as 2008, and well above the 38 percent who said the same in 2007.  Meanwhile, carpooling has dropped, with just 5 percent of respondents indicating that they were sharing rides, a decline of two points from 2008.

While some behavior seems to be returning to pre-2008 patterns, it’s clear that consumers are still adjusting behavior, due in part to gas prices.  One-quarter of U.S. households are buying gas at locations because of incentives tied to spending levels at a grocery store where they shop.  They continue to buy less expensive grocery brands, and shop at supercenters.  As we highlighted previously, the use of coupons is high, with 38 percent of respondents indicating that they are using more coupons.

“Compared to last year, the price of gas was low this summer, making it one less thing consumers had to worry about as they grappled with issues such as job security, retirement, putting kids through college and making mortgage payments.  That said, with economic recovery beginning to take hold, it will be interesting to see if consumer behavior shifts considerably as they feel more confident about their circumstances,” said Todd Hale, Senior Vice President, Consumer & Shopper Insights at The Nielsen Company.

Nielsen started conducting the Gas Impact Survey in July 2005.  This year’s survey had more than 63,000 respondents.

In the U.S., consumers remain skittish.  Shifts to private label brands continued at a strong pace, as they have for the last eight months, while consumers are shopping less frequently and spending less per trip.  Canadians, on the other hand, are spending more per trip, and are taking advantage of retail promotions.  Unlike in the U.S., private label brands are struggling to gain share as national brands step up promotional activity.

In Europe, the French remain relatively unchanged in their shopping.  Value channels continued to see growth and more retailers were selling on promotion, leading to a modest increase in the amount spent per trip.  Germans showed very little change in the number of shopping trips they took, nor did they increase or decrease how much they spent.  Unit sales increased, however.  In the UK, sales volume improved slightly from the previous month, while budget store brands’ growth slowed as consumers began returning to premium brands.  British shoppers were also spending slightly more per trip.  Italians continued to move to store brands and value channels, although they were reducing their shopping frequency.  Spaniards, who have been among the most optimistic, have not seen that reflected in spending.

Brazilians showed an 8 point surge in optimism, and this translated into more frequent shopping trips and higher sales, in both volume and value terms.  Hong Kong and China both showed growth in sales, but Taiwan showed declines, and optimism there was among the lowest in Asia.  Indian consumers’ confidence was high, and volume and value sales both increased by more than 5 percent.

“While things are starting to look up, it’s clear that Americans and Western Europeans aren’t quite convinced that recovery has taken hold and remain cautious when it comes to shopping.  The labor market is clearly affecting this behavior.  It comes as little surprise that Brazil, India and China – countries that have generally been less affected by the global recession – are among the first to see renewed consumer confidence and sales growth,” said James Russo, Vice President, Global Consumer Insights at The Nielsen Company.

The Buzz

While the idea of recovery hasn’t opened up global consumers’ wallets quite yet, it has started to infiltrate their discussions on the Web.  In June, 71 percent of survey respondents thought that their countries were in recession, an improvement from the 77 percent who thought the same in April.  Additionally, 26 percent believed that their country will be out of a recession in the next twelve months, up three points from April.  Global recession buzz has declined 27 percent since March.  In July, however recessionary buzz perked up, primarily in Western Europe.

“We are likely to see an overall downward trend in recession discussions, but it will be choppy until consumers really feel as if they are experiencing the recovery,” said Russo.

Download the latest Nielsen Economic Current.

So what will be different in terms of consumer spending in just 11 years?  A weakened Social Security system and underfunded private pension plans will make it difficult for a large number of retirees to maintain their current standard of living. From now until 2020, the Struggling and Lower Mid affluence groups will be the only ones to gain share, pulling households from all other groups.  Household sizes will decrease.  Consumer spending will grow modestly over the next 11 years, but actually fall after 2020.  And the changes that occur after that year – both in terms of demographics and spending – will require marketers to dramatically change the way they do business if they hope to continue to grow.

Read an in-depth look at the demographic changes projected to take place in the U.S., and the challenges and opportunities for manufacturers in the July edition of Consumer Insight.

The middle of summer marks the beginning of the Back to School (BTS) season, as parents and kids across the country start to prepare to return to class rooms in late August and early September.  The excitement of school starting isn’t just felt by the kids – retailers also look forward to the season, as it’s an incredibly important time for the $2.5 billion office/school supplies category.  Additionally, with the economy mired in a steep recession this season, the BTS season will be closely watched for signs of a recovery in spending. Half of annual unit sales of some related products occur during the BTS period, accounting for 36-38 percent of annual revenue.

This year, as the US continues to be in the grips of recession, Nielsen is forecasting a dollar sales rise of 0.4 to 1.3 percent, to $2.17 billion, a pace below the growth achieved in 2008.  Unit sales will drop to 1.18 billion, down 5.5 percent from 2008.

In 2008, Nielsen predicted that dollar sales of BTS supplies would rise 2.6 percent; the actual result was 2.4 percent.

“Unlike the winter holidays, back to school shopping, to some extent, is not viewed as discretionary by consumers. Kids must have certain items at the start of the new school year.  That said, we expect sales to increase at an extremely modest level in dollar terms in 2009.  The nation is firmly in the midst of recession, so consumers will spend their money carefully, as they have for the better part of a year, and focus on purchasing the essentials,” said James Russo, Vice President, Global Consumer Insights at The Nielsen Company.

One peripheral category which is forecast to gain is bottled waters. Often considered a  discretionary item, bottled water is consumed as a staple, and is expected to out-pace juice sales with growth of 3.57%.

“The winners this season will be retailers who offer strong discounts and appeal to the consumer’s desire for savings and value. Look for gains from supercenters, dollar stores, drug stores and to a lesser extent, club and grocery stores,” said Russo.

Back-to-school categories include office/school supplies, artist/hobby supplies, scissors and tape/glue.  Retail outlets covered by Nielsen are food, drug and mass merchandisers, including Walmart.  Figures do not include dollar stores, online sales or office supply retail chains.

A Link Between Buzz And Spending

For the latest Economic Current, Nielsen tracked online discussions about the economy and found that since mid-March 2009, recession buzz has dropped 47 percent in the U.S., UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia and New Zealand.

“Globally, Nielsen is tracking online discussions related to the recession and when the recovery may emerge. While discussions about the recovery are still quite low, we have seen that the public is talking less about the recession — often dramatically less,” said James Russo, Vice President, Global Consumer Insights for The Nielsen Company.

“In the U.S., we found that recession discussions have dropped since hitting a peak in January.  There appears to be a strong correlation between what consumers are saying in discussion groups and their subsequent actual purchase behavior.  From the end of 2008 to March 2009, when recession discussions were highest, we found that sales actually declined by 2.3 percent.  From mid-March to early June, as recession chats dropped, we found that sales actually showed a modest increase,” continued Russo.  “This is an important dynamic as we look to signs of a sustained recovery, and Nielsen will be at the forefront of this research.”

Noteworthy Highlights

• After showing some positive movement in April, U.S. consumers pulled back on shopping and how much they spent per trip. Meanwhile, the shift to value channels such as supercenters, club and dollar stores continued, as did the move to private label store brands.
• Canadians are slightly more optimistic than their southern neighbors. While they aren’t shopping any more frequently than before, they are spending more per trip. But like Americans, Canadians are also turning to private label store brands and value channels.
• Western Europe remained in a neutral position. Some countries’ consumers shifted to value channels and store brands, but they generally reduced the frequency of their shopping trips and spent no more, or in some cases, less than in previous months.
• Brazilians were the most positive of the lot, with consumers shopping more frequently.

Download the latest Nielsen Economic Current.

“Consumers worldwide appear to be in a holding pattern and we see evidence that consumer spending might be positioned to turn around,” said James Russo, Vice President Global Consumer Insights at Nielsen.  “There is no doubt that conditions remain tough for global consumers, with continuing widespread areas of weakness, but levels of decline seem to be moderating.”

The Economic Current ranks national economic performance on a scale of one to five, with one representing very strong growth (over 5%). India and China continue to be the only countries that scored a one in February, while Canada and Russia scored twos (growth between 1% and 4%). The U.S. continues to score a four.

Watch James Russo discuss saving rates and additional findings of the Nielsen Economic Current.

Additional findings include:

• Consumers in most countries are spending more per shopping trip, but cutting back on discretionary spending, such as entertainment outside of the home, buying new clothes and switching to cheaper grocery brands.
• There are noticeable shifts to value channels such as discount stores that provide high-volume, low-profit offers, even in Brazil, Russia, India and China.
• Consumers are purchasing more store brands, especially in Spain, Germany and Canada.

“There are a lot of similarities among consumer spending globally. No matter the border, consumers are reigning in their spending. In this volatile market, retailers and manufacturers need to know how to maximize their public exposure and understand the needs of consumers at a granular level to survive,” said Jonathan Banks, Business Insight Director for Nielsen in Europe.

Download the latest Economic Current.

Download the full press release.

1. Take higher margins in less price-sensitive categories
Ranking categories based on purchase frequency is a fast and inexpensive way of identifying categories that are least sensitive to higher pricing.  Shoppers are less likely to remember pricing on products purchased only once or twice per year. For higher-priced products, however, shoppers are more likely to shop around for the best deal.

2. Lower the thermostat in stores this winter
Your customers will be wearing coats anyway.  This will save on heating costs while promoting a “green” image.  Retailers can post a sign on the front door, letting shoppers know how lowering the heat helps the environment.  Also consider turning down the air conditioning in the summertime.

3. Publish your own $100/week family menu
Supermarkets can create a weekly meal plan for a family of four to eat nutritious meals from easy recipes tied to key items. Look to your vendors for meal ideas or consider ways to promote your own store brands. Consider showing price comparisons to fast food restaurants.

4. Tie discounts to large or frequent trips
Why offer red-hot door-buster deals that do nothing to generate additional purchases?  Instead, consider offering hot prices for shoppers with a $100 purchase.  Supermarkets may consider a special deal for shoppers with $500 in receipts over the course of a month.

5. Expand beyond your channel’s traditional product mix
What’s stopping grocers from selling video games or electronics stores from selling snacks?  Convenience and liquor stores also have a huge opportunity to sell products appealing to men, like tools, gadgets, and video games. What’s more, grocers can take higher margins on “non-grocery” items, since shoppers buying electronics or clothes in supermarkets are looking for convenience and fewer trips — not always the lowest price.

6. Maintain competitive pricing in most frequently-shopped categories
Shoppers can recognize a high price on the products they buy weekly, whether it’s milk, bread, soda, or diapers.  To give the appearance of low prices, retailers need to keep these items priced competitively, even if those low prices are subsidized by less price-sensitive items.

7. Disguise store brands
Consumers can usually spot store brands positioned as a low-cost alternative to a national brand.  But in the past few years, savvy retailers are developing premium, multi-tiered store brands. Some retailers, like Walmart, downplay their store brands with different brand names for each department or category.

8. Support organic, natural and green products regardless of sales
The growth of organic products may slow during this economic downturn, but featuring healthy and environmentally sustainable products will help to boost a retailer’s banner equity.  Organic, natural, and green products project a positive image for retailers — and when the economy recovers, retailers will want to be known for more than just low prices.

9. Get shoppers to try premium private label products
No one will know if your private label salad dressing is as good as the national brands if they don’t try it.  Shoppers are creatures of habit, and changing habits takes some effort.  Offer trial sizes, $1-sizes, or 100-calorie packs.  Or, consider featuring one private label product each week with a free unit to shoppers spending $100.  Shopper taste comparison demonstrations in the store may also help to boost private label products.

10. Make a good impression on new shoppers
The struggling U.S. economy is significantly affecting how and where people shop, with consumers switching between both brands and retailers.  Now is not the time to cut corners on factors that will negatively impact shoppers’ experience.  Don’t let the checkout lines get too long, remove the used tissues and flyers from the bottoms of carts, keep the conveyor belt clean, and treat every shopper like it’s their first visit to your store.

Read more about how to cope during difficult economic times in “Consumer Insight.”

View the January 2009 issue of “Consumer Insight.”

With the nationwide transition to digital TV in the U.S. little more than one month away, 6.8% of U.S. households remain unready for the switch to all-digital broadcasting, according to Nielsen.

Nielsen Wire recently spoke with Patricia McDonough, SVP of Insights, Analysis and Policy, Nielsen, about the company’s efforts to accurately measure TV viewing following the February 17 digital transition.

Nielsen Wire: What is Nielsen doing to prepare for the transition to digital TV broadcasting?

Patricia McDonough:
We are planning for a busy post-holiday season in which we expect many unprepared households to purchase new equipment.  Our field staff will be ready to visit these homes and make necessary connections to our meters.   We plan to have our field staff strategically located near our unprepared sample homes to be able to quickly respond to changes to equipment and service.

Nielsen’s dedicated digital transition team is examining every aspect of our television audience measurement process to prepare for the February 17 transition.  The team has coordinated efforts across the company from establishing new guidelines for our field staff to deal appropriately with questions from sample households, to providing clients with assistance understanding what will be necessary to ensure proper audience crediting.

We are also working with our clients to finalize the details of how we will deal with the days immediately following the transition, when some disruption may occur. That includes developing rules to deal with sample home viewing changes caused by the introduction of new equipment needed to make homes digitally ready.

The bottom line is that Nielsen is not in the business of predicting what the ratings will be; our primary responsibility is to report what is being viewed on television.  To that end, we do believe we are well prepared to provide audience estimates that will provide a realistic view of how people are watching television before, during, and after the switch to all-digital transmission.

Nielsen Wire: How will the transition to digital broadcasting affect Nielsen’s TV ratings?

Patricia McDonough:
To some extent, that remains to be seen.  Nielsen’s extensive preparations for the digital transition make us well positioned to measure and report viewing after February 17.  In the best case scenario, every household that is currently unprepared will take steps necessary and there will be no interruption.  In reality, that is unlikely — though Nielsen expects the majority of households to be ready.

Nielsen Wire: Will homes without digital converters still be counted as part of Nielsen’s TV panel?

Patricia McDonough:
Nielsen has always had rules for how long we can keep a sample home if they no longer have television.  We are reviewing those rules and are discussing with clients how they should be applied during the transition to digital TV.

If a sample home is no longer able to receive signals following the transition, one of the key factors affecting whether or not they stay in Nielsen’s panel will be their plans.  If a sample household advises Nielsen that they will make arrangement to become a working TV home again, we will work with them.  But if that home tells us they have decided to do nothing, they will likely be replaced.

Nielsen Wire: Which stations are affected by the transition: broadcast, cable, PBS?

Patricia McDonough:
The potential changes associated with the digital transition affect all players.  For broadcasters, it is vital that those households that rely solely on over-the-air signals make appropriate preparations.  By definition, these homes currently do all of their TV viewing via broadcast television.  If they purchase a new TV set or a digital converter box, broadcasters can maintain that advantage of being their sole provider of television information and entertainment.  If a household chooses to connect to cable, satellite, telco video offerings, or another source that would open new opportunities for viewing cable networks that were previously unavailable to that household.  As such, there are potential upsides and downsides for broadcast and cable networks alike.

Nielsen Wire: Are there other continuing challenges related to the digital transition that Nielsen will be tackling in the next year?

Patricia McDonough:
The media landscaping is continuously evolving — as such, there are always new challenges in measuring and reporting media consumption.  Nielsen’s job is to anticipate these and develop tools to accurately track consumers’ media habits.

One of the most important current trends is the use of Internet and mobile devices to watch television.  Nielsen’s clients need to know how all of these screens contribute to their total audience, and we working hard to integrate our resources to provide those answers.

As the digital transition approaches, stay tuned on Nielsen Wire for information and preparedness updates.

More at the FCC’s DTV.gov website.