People aren’t just consuming content on social networks, they’re actively sharing it.  As television becomes more digital – in the form of sharable video clips or articles about a show’s premiere, for example – social media will continue to play an increasingly important role in how consumers discover and engage with various forms of content, including TV.

An analysis conducted by NM Incite, a Nielsen/McKinsey Company, and Nielsen looked at the correlation between online buzz and television ratings and found a statistically significant relationship throughout a TV show’s season among all age groups, with the strongest correlation among younger demos (people ages 12-17 and 18-34), and a slightly stronger overall correlation for women compared to men.  Men over 50 showed the weakest buzz-to-ratings connection leading up to a show’s premiere through the middle of the season, but that relationship strengthened by the finale as all age groups were actively discussing a TV show via social media.

Among people aged 18-34, the most active social networkers, social media buzz is most closely aligned with TV ratings for the premiere of a show.  A few weeks prior to a show’s premiere, a nine percent increase in buzz volume correlates to a one percent increase in ratings among this group.  As the middle of the season approaches and then the finale, the correlation is slightly weaker, but still significant, with a 14 percent increase in buzz corresponding to a one percent increase in ratings.

At the genre level, 18-34 year-old females showed significant buzz-to-ratings relationships for reality programs (competition and non-competition), comedies and dramas, while men of the same age saw strong correlations for competition realities and dramas.

Methodology

A model was created using 250 television programs and over 150 million social media sites to analyze the relationship between social media and television.  Several buzz- and television-related inputs went into this model.  Buzz metrics included buzz volume (the raw number of messages about a TV show), messages per source (as a proxy for spread of discussion) and the number of authors (total number of individuals generating the messages).  Fundamental television factors included the genre of the show, whether the program aired on broadcast or cable, and the length of time the show had been on-air (first season, second, etc.).  The amount of ad dollars spent promoting the show and prior ratings (both episode and season) were also considered.

These variables directly impact both ratings and buzz volume.  They were included in the model to account for their contribution to understanding future TV ratings, and to bring clarity to the value that buzz provides.

For more on TV viewers getting social, download research and watch video from Nielsen’s Advertising Week presentations.

“Super Bowl XLV caps what is arguably the most successful season that any sports league has ever had,” said Pat McDonough,   “The number of people watching NFL games has never been higher, with 24% more people watching the average NFL game this year than just five years ago.  The Super Bowl continues to be in a category of its own, with an appeal that transcends sports and extends even to the commercials.  Because of the cliff-hanger nature of the game, viewers were tuning in until the very end, driving viewing levels to new heights.”

Over the past several years, the NFL has attracted larger audiences by broadening its appeal to new audiences, including women and Hispanics, by building up high-profile players – especially quarterbacks – to personify the league and by cross-promoting the games across multiple television networks and emerging digital platforms.

Pittsburgh and Milwaukee Lead Local Market viewing
In the local markets, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh were tied, with a 59.7 household rating.  Other high local market ratings include Columbus, OH and Nashville.

Download Nielsen’s top 10s and trends in the U.S. for 2010.

According to The Nielsen Sports Media Exposure Index, which measures media exposure on TV and online, the Cowboys were still the most popular NFL team in America last season. Jerry Jones’s franchise earned the top indexed score of 100, far surpassing the runner-up Pittsburgh Steelers who finished with an index of 81.

The Cowboys’ top ranking was boosted by first-place showings in two of the four categories tallied by Nielsen: gross audience during nationally televised games and monthly unique audience to the team web site. The other two categories – local team ratings and total buzz volume – were captured by the Saints and New York Giants, respectively.

Dallas has held the top two spots in each of the last two years. The Steelers moved up from third to second, swapping places with the Giants. The Minnesota Vikings, aided no doubt by the presence and performance of legendary QB Brett Favre,  climbed from 13th place in 2008 to a tie for 4th in the 2009 regular season ranking. The Washington Redskins, meanwhile, dropped from 5th in 2008 to 11th in 2009.

NFC teams dominated the 2009 rankings. Seven of the top 10 teams  represented the conference, while the Steelers, Colts (t-8th) and Patriots (10th) were the only three AFC teams to crack the top third of the list.

Among the two New York teams, the Giants had the most media exposure, ranking 15 spots ahead of the Jets. And even despite drawing 38% lower local market ratings than their Bay Area rivals, the Oakland Raiders were the most popular national brand out of Northern California, ranking two spots ahead of the San Francisco 49ers (25th vs. 27th).

The Nielsen Sports Media Exposure Index measured all 32 NFL teams in four categories during the 2009 regular season: local team ratings, gross national TV audience, online buzz volume, and monthly unique audiences to official team websites. Teams in each category were assigned a score, with the top rank worth 100 points and each subsequent ranking assigned a lower weighted score based its distance from the top. Final team rankings were calculated using the sum of scores across all four categories, and then indexed with the highest total equaling 100.

Nielsen’s NFL Media Exposure Index was recently featured in the Wall Street Journal.

Overall, there were more rank changes this season in local markets compared to the previous season. Among the top 50 Hispanic markets, 22 markets changed rank this year, compared to only six changes last year. Philadelphia had the largest increase, rising 8 percent from last year, followed by Kansas City (up 7.7 percent). In the top 50 African American markets, Kansas City had the largest percentage increase, up 4.7 percent from last year. And in the top 50 Asian markets, Austin increased 3.7 percent.

Earlier this month, Nielsen estimated the World Cup reach at 99.2 million viewers through the Round of 16. Since then, the advanced stages of the World Cup picked up an extra 12.4 million viewers. All told, 38% of U.S. viewers – and 50% of all U.S. households – tuned in for at least six minutes of this year’s tournament.

Nielsen’s research also found that 57% of the total audience reached by World Cup telecasts was male and 43% was female. Almost half (49%) of the total audience fell between the ages of 18 and 49.

A total of 99.2 million U.S. viewers have watched at least six minutes of World Cup action through Tuesday. The figure already surpasses the 91.4 million viewers who watched at least some of the games throughout the entire 2006 World Cup.

“The audience reach measurement is a good indicator of how many viewers are at least curious enough to see what all the buzz is about,” said Stephen Master, VP of sports at Nielsen. “Even with the World Cup’s most crucial games still to come, a reach of 99.2 million viewers suggests that there’s a big American appetite for world class soccer.”

Miami Dominates Local Rankings

Viewers in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale market are watching the World Cup more than any other market in the country. Through Tuesday, Miami has the highest ratings for both English language (3.6 HH rating) and Spanish language (5.2 HH rating) World Cup telecasts.

New York City has the second highest ratings for English language telecasts (3.3 HH rating), followed by Washington, DC (3.2 HH rating). San Diego, which was the top rated English language market in 2006, ranks fouth so far this year with a 3.1 average household rating.

After Miami, Los Angeles has the highest average rating for Spanish language broadcasts (4.1 HH rating). Houston (3.5), Las Vegas (2.6), and Dallas-Ft. Worth (2.4) round out the top five.

The record viewership, which includes audiences watching on ABC and Univision, surpassed the previous high of 18.1 million viewers who watched the 1994 World Cup final between Brazil and Italy.

“This record viewership proves that soccer is as popular as it’s ever been in the United States,” said Stephen Master, VP of sports at The Nielsen Company. “Between the rise of social networking and virtually unlimited access to the sport no matter where it’s played in the world, this is the perfect environment for the game of soccer to thrive in the U.S.”

For greater context on the significance of 19.4 million viewers, viewership for other recent major sports events in the U.S. include:

• 2009 World Series: 19.1 million (average per game)
• 2010 NBA Finals: 18.1 million (average per game)
• 2010 final round of the Masters: 16.7 million
• 2010 Kentucky Derby: 16.5 million

An average of 11.1 million viewers caught the English and Spanish language broadcasts for each of USA’s three Group C matchups in this year’s World Cup. In 2006, USA’s three group stage games averaged 6.6 million viewers.

“These ratings demonstrate the remarkable increase of interest in U.S. soccer over the last four years,” said Stephen Master, VP of sports at Nielsen. “The numbers are even more impressive when you consider that two of these games were played on weekday mornings, when many viewers are at work. Although more people than ever chose to watch live streaming video of the games from their computers and mobile devices, TV viewing climbed even higher.”

Yesterday’s dramatic USA-Algeria matchup drew an estimated 8.6 million viewers between ESPN and Univision, making it the second most watched U.S. game behind USA-England. The game’s viewership was up from the 7.5 million viewers who watched USA tie Slovenia last Friday.

An estimated 14.5 million U.S. viewers combined to watch the telecasts on ABC and Univision (which include pre-game coverage), the highest average audience for a men’s national team soccer game since at least 15.8 million combined to watch USA and Brazil’s Round of 16 match in 1994.

The game was also the most watched first round game in the U.S., surpassing the USA-Romania match that drew at least 12.1 million in 1994.

“Thanks to social media and enhanced access to games and news from around the world, soccer fever has hit a critical mass in the United States,” said Stephen Master, vice president of sports at The Nielsen Company. “Saturday’s viewership numbers only validate soccer’s momentum across America.”

A further breakdown of the of the game’s audience reveals that 57% of total viewers fell in the 18-49 demographic. An estimated 65% of adults 18+ were male, while 35% were female. Teens accounted for almost 7% of the total audience.