Is the Super Bowl the ultimate marketing ecosystem of paid and earned media? 2010 will be huge test, as the new reality of consumer expression and cross-platform integration create a powerful new dynamic hovering over the largest single-spot ad spend on record.

What marketers urgently need to understand is not only total ROI on that mega-media buy, but the full return on all the other activities triggered or reinforced by this paid media stimulus. How does paid media drive earned media? And to what degree does earned media halo future paid media efforts? These are critical questions that Marketers need answers to – along with a metric or common yardstick that quantifies the blending of the two.

Getting Real about Real-Time
In an more agile and flexible marketing environment, where there’s actually a chance of making real-time changes based on available data, marketers need to understand the real-time role they can play in making tactical interventions to grow earned media impressions and ultimately, increase odds of success.

Twitter brings a fresh dynamic and promise to Super Bowl media efficiency. The platform reached a reach tipping point in 2009 – so much so that marketers increasingly use it to fan the flames for events, interact with brand mavens or enthusiasts, and, in a growing number of cases, manage or sandbag tension points like customer disappointment or service shortfalls.

Tweets are also increasingly embedding themselves in Facebook feeds, blog entries, and Google search results, magnifying their long-term value. Translated to the Super Bowl, positive playback about Super Bowl ads can have a “latency” effect and provide brands with an almost endless annuity of “earned media.” The same dynamic will be at work with Facebook brand fan pages, which can see massive growth – hundreds of thousands – following a major ad campaign, offline or online.

Quantifying the Big Picture
In the end, Super Bowl spots today need to meet two distinct “torture” tests – one measurable based on traditional TV scoring, and another based on unique dynamics of cross-platform engagement, most notably word-of-mouth and conversation. On a pure TV-impression alone, one can argue that the Super Bowl has become such an unusual magnet for consumer attention and recall – the one day of the year that we “celebrate” advertising – that it is worth every penny. Indeed, curiosity, anticipation, guessing, nostalgia come into play big time before this festival of brand persuasion. Consumers, after all, want to see the ads, almost akin to seeing a movie.

The entertainment halo certainly matters. Over the last three years, Nielsen IAG research found Super Bowl spots achieved a 31% higher break-through and 93% higher likability than the typical ad on television. But it’s not that simple. Timing is also a factor. First and second quarter spots yield more yardage than second half spots, and 4th quarter spots are about comparable to a “normal” TV buy in terms of generating ad recall. The viewer’s ability to associate the correct brand with the ad, and reported likability levels similarly wane over the course of the game. Surprisingly, branded integration effectiveness shows an opposite trend. Recall and brand opinion are lowest pre-game, moderate during the game, and big gainers post game. For Marketers, the mix is clear: focus on ads early and branded integration efforts late. Lastly, the SuperBowl is a touchdown for brands generally: purchase consideration for the average ad the week after increases +13% versus the week prior.

So that’s the foundation of pure “paid” measurements. What about the “earned” side of the equation, which factors in free media, consumer conversation, participation, and the like? Clearly, the Super Bowl in particular shines light across a far more complicated mix of marketing activity and user-engagement. Great copy finds life in other places.

An engaging, even participatory Pepsi game spot, for instance, might trigger a site visit, a Google search, a tweet, retweet, fan-page sign-up, or DVR rewind. It might trigger a desire to share, forward, discuss, critique, rate, or review. It might bleed over into the social media stream of a New York Times or any media reporter (a growing number of whom leverage social media across all platforms.)

The good news is that this digital trail can be quantified with high levels of precision – by volume, reach, tone, source, or even depth of brand advocacy. And much of this can be delivered in real-time, empowering today’s brand manager to make real-time changes or adjustments to the site. Last year, for instance, a large percentage of brands buying spots on the Super Bowl made real-time adjustments to their websites or social media efforts based on pre-game variables.

This year, Frito-Lay’s Doritos brand sits on the extreme of early-adjustments, as the four spots they are running are sourced from user-participation events and contests. In this case, the “earned media” is stimulating the paid side of the equation. Then again, this can work in reverse. When P&G’s Tide brand ran a highly engaging “Talking Stain” spot two years ago, it triggered a user-generated contest that created an impressive annuity of online video that quickly reshaped the brand’s search results for the better. Three years ago, Nationwide insurance estimated that the “earned media” dividend from their Kevin Federline spot totaled over $20 million dollars.

So in the end, it’s just not as simple as “buying” high-reach media. The broader ecosystems truly matter. This year, Nielsen is putting its biggest effort into measuring and quantifying the full return of Super Bowl advertising, combining a comprehensive suite of paid media and earned media metrics into a total “engagement” score. And we don’t intend to stop at the Super Bowl. Over the course of 2010, we’ll be applying our new cross-platform engagement metrics across our work on the Winter Olympics, Academy Awards, and the World Cup.

Webinar: Learn more about Nielsen’s comprehensive approach to the Super Bowl. Join Pete Blackshaw and Randall Beard for a webinar Maximizing Advertising ROI in a Paid vs. Earned Media Environment on December 8 at 2:00PM EST.

The lists cover only new ads airing between March 30 through April 26, 2009.

The Likeability Score is the percentage of TV viewers who report to like “a lot” an ad they were exposed to during the normal course of viewing TV (among those recalling the brand of the ad). These scores are then indexed against the mean score for all new ads during the period (Likeability Index). 100 equals average. For example, with a Likeability Index of 177, the top ranked American Cancer Society spot has proven to be 77% better-liked than the average new commercial during the past four-week period.

The Recall Score is the percentage of TV viewers who can recall within 24 hours the brand of an ad they were exposed to during the normal course of viewing TV.

Main media, defined by Nielsen as free to air TV, newspapers and magazines, increased 13 percent in 2008, while all other media (radio, outdoor, pay TV, cinema and other) posted an 8 percent increase for the year.

In 2008, three markets recorded declines in ad spend versus 2007, while another posted no growth:

• Taiwan (-11%)
• South Korea (-8%)
• Thailand (-4%)
• New Zealand (0%)

Meanwhile, five countries showed solid double-digit growth:

• India (29%)
• Indonesia (19%)
• China (17%)
• Malaysia (12%)
• Philippines (11%)

Other key findings from Nielsen’s research:

• A total of US$115.2 billion was spent on advertising in the twelve markets monitored.
• A total of US$108.4 billion was spent on “Main Media” advertising, with television comprising 70 percent of expenditures.
• Television ad spend grew 15 percent. Only three countries recorded declines in TV ad spend, while five countries posted solid double-digit growth in this category.
• Although Americans are being deluged with stories of newspapers closing, cutting back and filing for bankruptcy, the medium recorded 9 percent growth, with declines in four countries.
• Magazine ad spends, while still comparatively small, increased 10 percent, with India leading the way.
• Radio dominated “all other media” with a 47 percent share of spend and a 12 percent increase for the year.

Over the next few days, Nielsen Wire will dig deeper into the numbers for Australia and New Zealand, East Asia, Southeast Asia and India.

It’s no secret that the 8pm hour generates much-needed ad dollars for broadcast TV networks. In February, ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC combined to average $21.5 million in revenue on Wednesdays from 8pm to 9pm ET. With that kind of money in play, networks are forced to balance their public service duties with financial obligations.

So what happens to advertisers who pay good money to place ads on pre-empted primetime broadcasting?

“In a situation like that, networks will find other ways to make good on their deals with advertisers,” says Annie Touliatos, VP for Sales Development at Monitor-Plus, Nielsen’s advertising intelligence service. “They can shift programming or offer to run the ad another week. They can also spread the ad buy over several spots that offer the advertiser the same level of viewer impressions. The key is for advertisers to ensure they will reach their target audiences effectively.”

The automotive industry was hit by a Mack truck the second half of 2008 with all-time high gas prices, a shrinking economy and growing consumer fear of making a large purchase.  Advertising spend reflects how the automotive industry reacted to the crisis, highlighting channels that are the most vital to intercepting new vehicle prospects.

The first half of 2008 showed growth in advertising spend over 2007 for TV (+2%) and Internet (+55%) while outdoor, magazine, radio and paper decreased (20%, 18%, 14%, and 4%, respectively).  The second half of 2008 yielded a lower advertising spend over 2007 across all channels.  Radio and paper took the biggest hits with decreases of 42 percent and 40 percent, while Internet exhibited a similar level of spend vs. 2007 with only a 0.5 percent decrease.  Overall automotive advertising spend decreased 8.2 percent from 2007 to 2008, with the Internet being the only channel to witness growth.

Automotive Estimated Ad Spend: 2007 – 2008

Trended on a monthly basis, automotive Internet advertising was outpacing 2007 until October 2008 when the brakes were applied and it dipped below 2007 levels for the first time.  Automotive Internet spending in 2007 represented 4.6 percent of total Internet spend rising to 5.9 percent in 2008.  Acura, Hyundai and Subaru contributed the largest increase in Internet spend from 2007 to 2008 while Mercury, Volvo and Jeep had the largest decrease.  Thus far, Internet spend for 2009 is once again gaining momentum and is forecast to be on par with Q1 07 while still slightly below Q1 08.

Auto Internet Ad Spend As % Of Total Internet Spend

The Internet is proving to be a critical strategic channel for automakers and we anticipate the trend to continue.  Although TV continues to represent roughly three-quarters of total advertising spend, the Internet could likely become the second largest advertising channel by 2010.  The key to successful Internet spend in 2009 will be identifying where your target audience goes online and interjecting yourself at the right moment in the vehicle purchase funnel.

Conducted on behalf of the Nielsen-funded Council for Research Excellence, the study ran over the course of a year and used a custom media collector program developed by Ball State.  Researchers gathered a wide range of data usage of any of the four categories of screens: traditional TVs (including DVD/VCR and DVR viewing), computers, mobile devices and “all other screens,” including in-cinema movies, GPS and display screens outside of the home.

Key findings of the study include:

• Consumers aged 45-54 racked up an average of more than 9 1/2 hours of screen time a day.

• The average for all other age groups was similar at roughly 8 1/2 hours.

• Computer video watching took on average just two minutes a day.

• TV still dominates, even among those aged 18-24.

• Radio usage has dropped to third, behind TV and computer usage, but ahead of print media.

• TV viewers were exposed to an average of 72 minutes of TV ads and promos every day, dispelling the conventional wisdom that people are channel-hopping or otherwise avoiding ads.

Read the full press release.

The study, which analyzed viewership data for some of America’s favorite sports, uncovered that while Major League Baseball and NBA pull in comparable audiences for nationally televised broadcast, when compared to the actual fan base in the United States, the NBA significantly outperformed most of its peers; NBA games were able to get 7.8% of its fans, on average, to sit down and view the broadcast.

The study also highlighted the strength of engagement for the sports. NFL fans, on average, watch over an hour of each televised football event; this was the only sport of the four to have over an hour of engagement per televised event.

Read the full study.

On Sunday, Nov. 2, McCain ran just 708 TV ad units in those seven states — 48% fewer than the 1,463 ad units Obama ran that day. 

But on Monday, Nov. 3, Obama’s lead in these key battleground states shrank to 79% — or a margin of 1,510 ad units, after McCain’s campaign increased the number of TV ad units it ran in those states by 168%, to 1,900 units.

In comparison, Obama’s campaign ran 3,410 ad units in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia on Monday — a 133% increase from Sunday.

Both candidates continued to focus the bulk of their advertising on Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  On Monday, McCain ran 75% of his 1,900 ads (1,424 units) in those three states, while Obama ran 67% of his 3,410 ads (2,292 units) there.

Advertising in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia by both McCain (1,912 units) and Obama (4,119 units) peaked on Friday, Oct. 17 (6,031 combined ad units) — just two days after their final presidential debate.

In comparison, on Monday – the last day before the election – the candidates placed a combined total of 5,310 ads, falling short of their Oct. 17 combined advertising peak by 13.5%. 

For his part, McCain came within 12 ad units (6%) of his Oct. 17 advertising peak on Monday, while Obama remained 709 units (21%) shy of his highest ad unit level.

Overall, between Oct. 6 and Nov. 3, Obama placed 133% more ad units (83,903 vs. 36,070) than McCain in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Nielsen’s ad unit data shows preliminary commercial occurrences and may fluctuate from day to day, as data is updated.

Read coverage of Nielsen’s findings by Bloomberg and in The Boston Globe and the Houston Chronicle.

Despite trailing Obama in terms of the total number of TV ad units placed, McCain showed a much larger percentage increase in TV advertising from the previous weekend (Friday October 24 thru Sunday, October 26) to this past weekend (Friday, October 31 thru Sunday, November 2).  

McCain bumped his TV ad units up by 76% overall in the seven battleground states Nielsen tracked, while Obama increased his advertising in those states by just 3% over the previous weekend.

Between October 6 and November 2, Obama placed 135% more ad units (80,504 vs. 34,179) than McCain in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

To date, both McCain and Obama have advertised most heavily in Florida.  Obama ran 24,834 ads in the state between October 6 and November 2, outpacing McCain’s 8,599 ads by almost 189%.

Nielsen’s ad unit data shows preliminary commercial occurrences and may fluctuate from day to day, as data is updated.

Stay tuned on NielsenWire for daily political ad updates from the swing states.