Is the Super Bowl the ultimate marketing ecosystem of paid and earned media? 2010 will be huge test, as the new reality of consumer expression and cross-platform integration create a powerful new dynamic hovering over the largest single-spot ad spend on record.

What marketers urgently need to understand is not only total ROI on that mega-media buy, but the full return on all the other activities triggered or reinforced by this paid media stimulus. How does paid media drive earned media? And to what degree does earned media halo future paid media efforts? These are critical questions that Marketers need answers to – along with a metric or common yardstick that quantifies the blending of the two.

Getting Real about Real-Time
In an more agile and flexible marketing environment, where there’s actually a chance of making real-time changes based on available data, marketers need to understand the real-time role they can play in making tactical interventions to grow earned media impressions and ultimately, increase odds of success.

Twitter brings a fresh dynamic and promise to Super Bowl media efficiency. The platform reached a reach tipping point in 2009 – so much so that marketers increasingly use it to fan the flames for events, interact with brand mavens or enthusiasts, and, in a growing number of cases, manage or sandbag tension points like customer disappointment or service shortfalls.

Tweets are also increasingly embedding themselves in Facebook feeds, blog entries, and Google search results, magnifying their long-term value. Translated to the Super Bowl, positive playback about Super Bowl ads can have a “latency” effect and provide brands with an almost endless annuity of “earned media.” The same dynamic will be at work with Facebook brand fan pages, which can see massive growth – hundreds of thousands – following a major ad campaign, offline or online.

Quantifying the Big Picture
In the end, Super Bowl spots today need to meet two distinct “torture” tests – one measurable based on traditional TV scoring, and another based on unique dynamics of cross-platform engagement, most notably word-of-mouth and conversation. On a pure TV-impression alone, one can argue that the Super Bowl has become such an unusual magnet for consumer attention and recall – the one day of the year that we “celebrate” advertising – that it is worth every penny. Indeed, curiosity, anticipation, guessing, nostalgia come into play big time before this festival of brand persuasion. Consumers, after all, want to see the ads, almost akin to seeing a movie.

The entertainment halo certainly matters. Over the last three years, Nielsen IAG research found Super Bowl spots achieved a 31% higher break-through and 93% higher likability than the typical ad on television. But it’s not that simple. Timing is also a factor. First and second quarter spots yield more yardage than second half spots, and 4th quarter spots are about comparable to a “normal” TV buy in terms of generating ad recall. The viewer’s ability to associate the correct brand with the ad, and reported likability levels similarly wane over the course of the game. Surprisingly, branded integration effectiveness shows an opposite trend. Recall and brand opinion are lowest pre-game, moderate during the game, and big gainers post game. For Marketers, the mix is clear: focus on ads early and branded integration efforts late. Lastly, the SuperBowl is a touchdown for brands generally: purchase consideration for the average ad the week after increases +13% versus the week prior.

So that’s the foundation of pure “paid” measurements. What about the “earned” side of the equation, which factors in free media, consumer conversation, participation, and the like? Clearly, the Super Bowl in particular shines light across a far more complicated mix of marketing activity and user-engagement. Great copy finds life in other places.

An engaging, even participatory Pepsi game spot, for instance, might trigger a site visit, a Google search, a tweet, retweet, fan-page sign-up, or DVR rewind. It might trigger a desire to share, forward, discuss, critique, rate, or review. It might bleed over into the social media stream of a New York Times or any media reporter (a growing number of whom leverage social media across all platforms.)

The good news is that this digital trail can be quantified with high levels of precision – by volume, reach, tone, source, or even depth of brand advocacy. And much of this can be delivered in real-time, empowering today’s brand manager to make real-time changes or adjustments to the site. Last year, for instance, a large percentage of brands buying spots on the Super Bowl made real-time adjustments to their websites or social media efforts based on pre-game variables.

This year, Frito-Lay’s Doritos brand sits on the extreme of early-adjustments, as the four spots they are running are sourced from user-participation events and contests. In this case, the “earned media” is stimulating the paid side of the equation. Then again, this can work in reverse. When P&G’s Tide brand ran a highly engaging “Talking Stain” spot two years ago, it triggered a user-generated contest that created an impressive annuity of online video that quickly reshaped the brand’s search results for the better. Three years ago, Nationwide insurance estimated that the “earned media” dividend from their Kevin Federline spot totaled over $20 million dollars.

So in the end, it’s just not as simple as “buying” high-reach media. The broader ecosystems truly matter. This year, Nielsen is putting its biggest effort into measuring and quantifying the full return of Super Bowl advertising, combining a comprehensive suite of paid media and earned media metrics into a total “engagement” score. And we don’t intend to stop at the Super Bowl. Over the course of 2010, we’ll be applying our new cross-platform engagement metrics across our work on the Winter Olympics, Academy Awards, and the World Cup.

Webinar: Learn more about Nielsen’s comprehensive approach to the Super Bowl. Join Pete Blackshaw and Randall Beard for a webinar Maximizing Advertising ROI in a Paid vs. Earned Media Environment on December 8 at 2:00PM EST.

Virginia Harvey, Client Service, Nielsen Monitor-Plus

SUMMARY: The rise to stardom does not come arbitrarily, but rather is often the by-product of a carefully constructed plan that brings together a perfect blend of talent, timing and a great advertising promotion plan. Nielsen investigates how some of the more recent campaigns in the music world achieved success.

A sold out show or an album going gold, platinum or diamond is music to the ears of emerging artists and veteran musicians alike. But achieving that goal typically takes more than just great songs—exposure is a key contributor. In the February issue of Consumer Insight, Nielsen reported that music artists saw album sales climb as much as 700% one week after the Grammy’s aired on broadcast television. Now, Nielsen takes a closer look at the backstage-pass advertising that amplifies album sales, digital downloads, and concert sales.

Total concert advertising spend
In 2008, total advertising spend for concerts in combined print, TV, Internet, and outdoor tallied just over $207 million. April dominated sales with $23.2 million, which surpassed May—a close second—by 10%. Contributing $2.3 million to April’s total was spending for Neil Diamond’s Home Before Dark tour.

A review of the top three artists’ spending for 2008 reveals that Neil Diamond once again led total spending at $6.2 million, followed by Tina Tuner with $4.3 million and Trans-Siberian Orchestra (TSO) $3.6 million. TSO, which tours on a yearly basis during the holiday season, increased advertising spend in 2008 by 37%. The increase paid off, as 2008 ticket sales grossed $47.3 million—a 28% increase over 2007 results of $36.9 million.

Overall, monthly spending was fairly consistent, with one exception—January started the year slow with a $9.4 million outlay.

Veteran acts re-emerge
Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers’ 2008 tour proved to be one of the biggest of the year. With an estimated 32 U.S. shows and 25 sell outs, total ticket sales grossed $34.8 million. Helping to re-ignite the name—to about 97 million viewers—was a calculated move to play at the Super Bowl XLII half-time show.

Additional media vehicles that contributed to a successful tour included countless articles in magazines and online blogs about Petty’s recent greatest hits album and tour. From SPIN to Variety, Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers’ had a wealth of media exposure. Roughly two-thirds (64%) of their promotional spending was placed in newspapers and one-third was split between local radio ($223,000) and television ($141,000) ads.

The pay-off in publicizing is further revealed by a review of Tom Petty’s tour promotion ad spending in 2005 and 2006. In 2006, ad spending increased 61%, from $430,000 to $694,000, grossing $25.2 million in ticket sales—$3.2 million higher than 2005 sales.

Hot commodities
A new era of Tween fans have emerged with the introduction Hannah Montana and the Jonas Brothers. With the help of the Disney Channel, acts such as these have become a household name. The Hannah Montana show—with viewers that number upwards of an average 10.7 million over the past three years—has driven awareness levels so high that traditional advertising for the 2007/2008 tour totaled only $430,000. An additional $2.7 million was spent promoting various Hannah Montana paraphernalia, such as toy figures, playsets and perfume. Hannah Montana sold out all 70 shows from October 2007 through January 2008 and grossed $55.2 million in ticket sales.

While the Jo Bro’s have been associated with Disney (collaborating to create a Disney Channel original movie), the bands’ main source of promotion was TV, magazine, newspaper, and radio ($1.3 million). As impressive as their third album was—selling 525,000 copies in just the first week of its release alone—they sold out only 54 U.S. shows out of 82 and total ticket sales grossed $41.9 million. While both acts are hot commodities, girl power triumphs and solidifies the importance of exposure and familiarity.

Rise from obscurity
When Apple introduced the iPod in 2001, their eye-catching roller-skating, freestyle silhouette advertisements paired with memorable songs transformed the digital download world—and brought success to many little-known artists. Most notable was the release of the third-generation iPod Nano, when Apple featured the single 1234 from Feist. Prior to the commercial airing in September 2007, the single generated 60,000 digital downloads. After the commercial hit the airwaves, downloads increased ten-fold—rising to 638,000 from September to December 2007, according to Nielsen.

With the success of that campaign, Apple continued to spotlight up-and-coming bands. When The Ting Ting’s hit single, Shut Up and Let Me Go, appeared in an iPod commercial in April 2008, it peaked at number 55 on the Billboard Hot 100 list. And in September 2008, the newest fourth-generation iPod Nano (Chromatic) line introduced the band Chairlift with a 30-second commercial that featured the song Bruises, which was just enough to send the song to the top of the Billboard Bubbling Under Hot 100 Singles chart.

Movie soundtracks can also have a profound affect on the popularity of a song. In February 2008, M.I.A released the single Paper Planes, which gained commercial attention when it was featured in the film and trailer for Pineapple Express. Digital copies soared from one week to the next selling 58,800 the week prior to the opening of the movie to 102,000 copies during the week of opening day—a 74% increase. From the time of the film’s opening week in early August, which included $6 million in TV ad spending to the end of September, digital copies spilled over to one million. Several months later, the song appeared in the film and soundtrack Slumdog Millionaire gaining awareness once again. The song eventually peaked at number four on Billboard Hot 100 and was nominated for the Record of the Year during the 51st Grammy Awards.

Chart toppers
The right exposure has the power to elevate a band to a level of success not possible otherwise. Finding the best promotion mix is vital. From targeting the right audience and selecting impactful platforms to delivering creative messages that resonate—understanding the consumer is the fundamental building block from which all successful programs begin. Whether the goal is instant stardom, re-introduction or business-as-usual, the ability to top the charts is all about creating awareness.

• In terms of DMA’s (Designated Market Area), Phoenix is ranked 12th and Pittsburgh 23^rd of the 56 metered markets. The 2006 Super Bowl featured a similar match-up with Seattle, ranked the 13^th largest DMA, against Pittsburgh, then 22^nd. That game received a 57.4 rating in Pittsburgh and 54.4 in Seattle (compared to 41.6 nationally).

• From 1999-2008, the highest single-year metered market performance was delivered in Jacksonville in 2005 (NE-PHI played in Jacksonville) with a 58.9 HH rating. For a participating team’s market, Atlanta owns the largest HH rating with a 58.2 in 1999 (DEN-ATL). Over the past decade, the Kansas City DMA has averaged the highest household rating, with 49.5% of television households tuning in to the Super Bowl each year (see chart below).

• Last year’s thrilling Super Bowl owes a large part of its record-breaking ratings’ success to a late-game viewer surge. At 10:02 PM, the final minute of the game, viewership peaked at a 51.3 HH rating, 72 share and over 112 million viewers. The final 30 minutes of the broadcast delivered a 47.5 HH rating. This was a 13% increase compared to all prior minutes (42.0).

• Since 2002, every Super Bowl has had its highest rating point occur in the 4^th quarter and - in all but one instance - after 10PM ET (the Bears-Colts ended at 9:57PM ET). Additionally, Super Bowls that went down to the wire (NE-STL, NE-CAR, NYG-NE) experience a late increase in share percent, while games that were less competitive (TB-OAK, NE-PHI, PITT-SEA, IND-CHI) had share levels that were flat or declining in the final half hour.

• The Super Bowl ratings are higher in HD households. Last year’s game received a 56.5 rating in HD capable/receivable homes. These homes over-indexed the composite HH rating by 31%.

The TV To Web Handoff

Additionally, Super Bowl advertisers saw a 24 percent jump in Web traffic the day after last year’s Super Bowl. The Pepsi commercial featuring Justin Timberlake gathered the most Internet buzz. One-third of online conversations about the Super Bowl the day of and the day after last year’s game were driven by Super Bowl advertising. The most-discussed ad online with 6.7% buzz volume was Pepsi’s spot with Timberlake, followed by the E*TRADE baby ad (5.2%) and Audi’s “Godfather” spoof (4.4%).

Read Nielsen’s complete pre-Super Bowl report

Despite this growing female audience, 35 percent of the commercials are still targeted towards male viewers. In fact, during the 2008 Super Bowl telecast, men generally seemed to have enjoyed the commercials more than women.

According to Nielsen, approximately 25 percent of all commercials were “better liked” by men than by women; about 7 percent were “better liked” by women than by men, and the rest were “gender neutral.” Even during the various entertainment awards shows – where advertisers presumably make a concerted effort to to target women viewers – these proportions are about the same.

The most popular commercials among male viewers that aired during the 2008 Super Bowl were Bud Light’s “ability to breathe fire” and cavemen spots, Audi’s “Godfather”-themed spot, Victoria’s Secret, GoDaddy.com, and Tide’s “to go” spot featuring “the talking stain.”

Among female viewers, popular commercials included eTrade’s baby spot, T-Mobile’s spot featuring basketball star Charles Barkley announcing he’s added fellow hoopster Dwayne Wade to his favorite “five” on his mobile phone, and CareerBuilder.com, featuring a woman whose heart pops out of her chest.

At The Tailgate… Pass The Wine?

While football fans are known for their love of beer and chips, Nielsen data suggests that more fans are developing a taste for wine. In fact, avid NFL fans spent 14 percent more on wine in 2007* than in 2006, outpacing the U.S. growth in wine by 14 percent.

Also, spending on skin care products (which includes but is not limited to acne remedies, face cleansers, and hand & body lotions) by the average avid NFL fan increased 19 percent from 2005 to 2007:

• During 2007, head of households who identified themselves as avid NFL fans purchased $36.10 in skin care, an increase of $2.30 from 2006 and $5.70 from 2005. This resulted in total sales in the category reaching 1.3 billion – up 23 percent from 2006.
• Overall, avid NFL fans outpaced total U.S. spending in skin care by 74 percent from 2005 to 2007.

*Latest database available. 2008 information to be released in February 2009

Read Nielsen’s complete pre-Super Bowl report.

FOX’s “American Idol” was the top TV program of 2008, according to Nielsen.  Tuesday night broadcasts of “American Idol,” through December 7, drew 15.5% of U.S. TV households, on average, while Wednesday night “American Idol” broadcasts drew an average of 15.3% of all TV households.

Viewers with DVR access gave NBC’s “Heroes” the biggest bump any primetime program received in 2008.  The average TV audience for “Heroes” increased by 35% when timeshifted viewing within seven days of a program’s original air date was factored into Nielsen’s ratings.  FOX’s “Fringe” and ABC’s “Lost” also drew large audience boosts — +26% and +25%, respectively — from DVR viewers.

The 2008 Superbowl, which drew 43.1% of all U.S. TV households, was the most popular single telecast of 2008. 

Top 10 TV Programs – Regularly Scheduled

Top 10 TV Programs – Single Telecast

Top 10 “Timeshifted” Primetime TV Programs

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-The most-watched global event ever (2008 Beijing Summer Olympics: 4.7 billion viewers)

-The most-watched Super Bowl ever (Giants-Patriots, Super Bowl XLII: 97.5 million viewers)

-The most-watched cable broadcast of all time (Cowboys-Eagles, Monday Night Football: 18.6 million viewers)

-The most-watched cable golf event of all time (Tiger vs. Rocco, U.S. Open Playoff: 4.8 million viewers)

-The most-watched cable baseball game ever (Red Sox-Rays, ALCS Game 7: 13.4 million viewers)

-The most-watched NBA Finals in five years (Celtics-Lakers, NBA Championship Series average: 14.9 million viewers)

-The most-watched NHL regular season game in nine years; most-watched finals in five years (Winter Classic: 2.5 million viewers; Stanley Cup, Penguins–Red Wings average: 4.5 million viewers)

-The most-watched Wimbledon final in eight years (Federer-Nadal: 5.2 million viewers)

The surge in viewership could be attributed to the dramatic storylines behind these games and events, but Nielsen’s analysis shows that new technology is enhancing the sports fan’s experience:

-Ratings for sports events are 20% higher in homes with high-definition TV sets vs. total U.S.

-75 million people visited sports websites in October 2008

-11.6 million unique users logged more than 1.2 billion minutes on fantasy sports sites in 2008

-10.6 million U.S. mobile subscribers accessed sports content via the mobile Web in August 2008

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