Is the Super Bowl the ultimate marketing ecosystem of paid and earned media? 2010 will be huge test, as the new reality of consumer expression and cross-platform integration create a powerful new dynamic hovering over the largest single-spot ad spend on record.

What marketers urgently need to understand is not only total ROI on that mega-media buy, but the full return on all the other activities triggered or reinforced by this paid media stimulus. How does paid media drive earned media? And to what degree does earned media halo future paid media efforts? These are critical questions that Marketers need answers to – along with a metric or common yardstick that quantifies the blending of the two.

Getting Real about Real-Time
In an more agile and flexible marketing environment, where there’s actually a chance of making real-time changes based on available data, marketers need to understand the real-time role they can play in making tactical interventions to grow earned media impressions and ultimately, increase odds of success.

Twitter brings a fresh dynamic and promise to Super Bowl media efficiency. The platform reached a reach tipping point in 2009 – so much so that marketers increasingly use it to fan the flames for events, interact with brand mavens or enthusiasts, and, in a growing number of cases, manage or sandbag tension points like customer disappointment or service shortfalls.

Tweets are also increasingly embedding themselves in Facebook feeds, blog entries, and Google search results, magnifying their long-term value. Translated to the Super Bowl, positive playback about Super Bowl ads can have a “latency” effect and provide brands with an almost endless annuity of “earned media.” The same dynamic will be at work with Facebook brand fan pages, which can see massive growth – hundreds of thousands – following a major ad campaign, offline or online.

Quantifying the Big Picture
In the end, Super Bowl spots today need to meet two distinct “torture” tests – one measurable based on traditional TV scoring, and another based on unique dynamics of cross-platform engagement, most notably word-of-mouth and conversation. On a pure TV-impression alone, one can argue that the Super Bowl has become such an unusual magnet for consumer attention and recall – the one day of the year that we “celebrate” advertising – that it is worth every penny. Indeed, curiosity, anticipation, guessing, nostalgia come into play big time before this festival of brand persuasion. Consumers, after all, want to see the ads, almost akin to seeing a movie.

The entertainment halo certainly matters. Over the last three years, Nielsen IAG research found Super Bowl spots achieved a 31% higher break-through and 93% higher likability than the typical ad on television. But it’s not that simple. Timing is also a factor. First and second quarter spots yield more yardage than second half spots, and 4th quarter spots are about comparable to a “normal” TV buy in terms of generating ad recall. The viewer’s ability to associate the correct brand with the ad, and reported likability levels similarly wane over the course of the game. Surprisingly, branded integration effectiveness shows an opposite trend. Recall and brand opinion are lowest pre-game, moderate during the game, and big gainers post game. For Marketers, the mix is clear: focus on ads early and branded integration efforts late. Lastly, the SuperBowl is a touchdown for brands generally: purchase consideration for the average ad the week after increases +13% versus the week prior.

So that’s the foundation of pure “paid” measurements. What about the “earned” side of the equation, which factors in free media, consumer conversation, participation, and the like? Clearly, the Super Bowl in particular shines light across a far more complicated mix of marketing activity and user-engagement. Great copy finds life in other places.

An engaging, even participatory Pepsi game spot, for instance, might trigger a site visit, a Google search, a tweet, retweet, fan-page sign-up, or DVR rewind. It might trigger a desire to share, forward, discuss, critique, rate, or review. It might bleed over into the social media stream of a New York Times or any media reporter (a growing number of whom leverage social media across all platforms.)

The good news is that this digital trail can be quantified with high levels of precision – by volume, reach, tone, source, or even depth of brand advocacy. And much of this can be delivered in real-time, empowering today’s brand manager to make real-time changes or adjustments to the site. Last year, for instance, a large percentage of brands buying spots on the Super Bowl made real-time adjustments to their websites or social media efforts based on pre-game variables.

This year, Frito-Lay’s Doritos brand sits on the extreme of early-adjustments, as the four spots they are running are sourced from user-participation events and contests. In this case, the “earned media” is stimulating the paid side of the equation. Then again, this can work in reverse. When P&G’s Tide brand ran a highly engaging “Talking Stain” spot two years ago, it triggered a user-generated contest that created an impressive annuity of online video that quickly reshaped the brand’s search results for the better. Three years ago, Nationwide insurance estimated that the “earned media” dividend from their Kevin Federline spot totaled over $20 million dollars.

So in the end, it’s just not as simple as “buying” high-reach media. The broader ecosystems truly matter. This year, Nielsen is putting its biggest effort into measuring and quantifying the full return of Super Bowl advertising, combining a comprehensive suite of paid media and earned media metrics into a total “engagement” score. And we don’t intend to stop at the Super Bowl. Over the course of 2010, we’ll be applying our new cross-platform engagement metrics across our work on the Winter Olympics, Academy Awards, and the World Cup.

Webinar: Learn more about Nielsen’s comprehensive approach to the Super Bowl. Join Pete Blackshaw and Randall Beard for a webinar Maximizing Advertising ROI in a Paid vs. Earned Media Environment on December 8 at 2:00PM EST.

“This growth suggests a wholesale change in the way the Internet is used,” said Jon Gibs, vice president, media and agency insights, Nielsen’s online division. “While video and text content remain central to the Web experience – the desire of online consumers to connect, communicate and share is increasingly driving the medium’s growth.”

Among those taking note of this trend: advertisers.  Estimated online advertising spending on the top social network and blogging sites increased 119 percent, from approximately $49 million in August 2008 to approximately $108 million in August 2009 – all despite a recession. Share of estimated spend on these sites has doubled, from 7 percent of online ad spend in 2008 to 15 percent in 2009.

Year-over-Year Percent Change in Online Ad Spend by Industry (U.S., August 2009)

*Estimated spend on social networking sites is based off of data for the top ad-supported member community sites ranked by unique visitors in August 2009
Read the full press release.

“Facebook is an increasingly vital link between consumers and brands.  We will now be able to add deep knowledge of this important social network to our unmatched media measurement and consumer insight across all three screens.  Together, we will be able to provide the missing elements to clients seeking better understanding of how Web content and online advertising affect consumer behavior,” said John Burbank, CEO of Nielsen’s online division. [Watch the Advertising Week keynote from Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg featuring comments from John Burbank.]

The alliance comes at an important crossroads.  As with most advertising, online spend was down, but only 2 percent on a year-over-year basis.  At the same time, however, advertising on the top social network and blogging sites increased by 119 percent.

Read the full press release.

Vampire-related sites are drawing audiences on the Web. In June 2009, the official Twilight movie site was the top online vampire-related destination, garnering 553,000 unique visitors who spent an average of two minutes and 45 seconds on the site during the month (the New Moon trailer is a minute and 47 seconds long). Vampire Wars on Facebook and Vampire Wars on Myspace.com ranked No. 2 and No. 3, with 386,000 and 272,000 unique visitors, respectively.

Interestingly, unique visitors to Twilight over-indexed among people between the ages of 25 and 34, despite originally sold as a book series for young adults. Unique visitors 25-34 were nearly twice as likely as the average Web user to visit the site in June. Women are also 44 percent more likely than the average Web users to visit the site.

Advertising for True Blood Steps Outside the Box

When HBO geared up for the second season premiere of True Blood, they hired Digital Kitchen to create an interesting ad campaign that would top the campaign for season one. Digital Kitchen enlisted the help of at least six major brands, from Harley-Davidson to Gillette, to create mock brand ads targeted to vampires. In advance of the new season, HBO increased their online image-based advertising for the show by almost 5,000 month-over-month, displaying 72.3 million online image-based ads in June 2009.

Did all of the advertising create the fervor that HBO was after? While buzz on Twilight eclipsed online discussions surrounding True Blood, there was a surge of conversation after the season two premiere. The number of online mentions nearly tripled the day of the premiere, increasing from .03 percent of all online conversations on the 13th to .07 percent on the 14th, which in turn also helped HBO buzz to increase during the days surrounding the launch of season two.

True Blood Helps Draw Online Video Viewers to HBO’s Site

With the second season premiere of True Blood on June 14, HBO experienced double digit growth month-over-month in unique viewers of video online, total video streams viewed, and time spent viewing video online. Total video streams viewed on HBO increased 299 percent, growing from 1.6 million streams in May 2009 to 6.4 million in June. Unique viewers of video increased 101 percent, while time spent viewing online increased 182 percent month-over-month.

While Twilight and True Blood have sparked a surge in interest around vampires, this is not a new phenomenon, but actually just a renewal of interest in these dark characters. Vampires have been a popular subject of fear and intrigue, from Bram Stoker’s Dracula, to Anne Rice’s Interview with a Vampire, to today’s Edward Cullen of Twilight. While the subject is the same, the avenues for connecting with other fans and staying up to date on what’s new are evolving. While you may have discussed Brad Pitt’s character in Interview over coffee with a friend 15 years ago, today you would share you love of last night’s True Blood episode with friends via Facebook.

When comparing unique visitors of the music.myspace.com subdomain to other sites within the music category in June, it ranked third behind AOL Music and Yahoo! Music and ahead of popular music sites like MTV Networks Music and Pandora.com.

People between the ages of 12 and 17 were 2.4 time more likely than the average active Internet user to visit music.myspace.com. Visitors between 18 and 24 were 2.2 more likely than the average Internet user to visit the site in June.

On the video streaming front, with 120.1 million total streams, Myspace.com was the No. 1 social media site when ranked by streams for June 2009. It was also the No. 1 social networking site when ranked by unique viewers of video content, with 12.9 million viewers for the month. Facebook was the fastest growing social media site by both total video streams and unique viewers of video. Total streams increased 434 percent year-over-year, from 10.1 million streams to 54 million streams. Unique viewers of video increased 397 percent, from 2.4 million in June 2008 to 12 million in June 2009.

Twitter’s Big Move

Among the top 10 social media sites, Twitter.com was again the fastest growing, increasing 1,928 percent year-over-year, from 1 million unique visitors in June 2008 to 21 million unique visitors in June 2009–making Twitter the fourth most visited member communities site in June. Facebook continued to lead as the No. 1 U.S. social networking site for the sixth month in a row, with 87.3 million unique visitors in June 2009.

Facebook No. 1 For Time Spent

Facebook was also the No. 1 social networking site among the top 10 when ranked by average time per person, with visitors spending an average of 4 hours and 33 minutes on the site in June. This is a 240 percent year-over-year increase. The average time per person on Twitter increased 522 percent year-over-year, from 5 minutes and 2 seconds in June 2008 to 31 minutes and 17 seconds in June 2009, making it the fastest growing by time per person among the top 10.

*Note: Effective with June 2009 data reporting, Nielsen has made several enhancements to the NetView and VideoCensus services, including a panel that is 8 times larger, more granular reporting and improved accuracy and representativeness. These enhancements provide the highest quality data to our clients and the marketplace. For some sites, trending of previously-reported data with current results may show percentage differences attributable to these product enhancements and should only be compared directionally.

As fans discussed the emotional and musical details of the memorial, the media coverage and the integration between television and the internet was also a major topic. Nearly 15% of all online discussions about Jackson referenced either a broadcast or social network.

CNN which teamed up with Facebook on streaming coverage was named in 5% of all online conversations. Also on the TV network side, BET came in 2nd with 1.9%, ABC with 1.7%, MTV with 1.44%, NBC/MSNBC with 1.43%, Fox with 1.38% and CBS with 1.0%. Among social networks, Twitter was the most discussed social networking site with 2.4%. Facebook was mentioned in 2% of the conversations, followed by Youtube (1.9%) Myspace (0.6%) and Hulu (0.3%) which streamed FOX News coverage.

“While events like the Jackson memorial, or the Obama inauguration are unique, the way consumers are multitasking between media is quickly becoming the norm,” says Charles Buchwalter, Senior Vice President, Research & Analytics, Nielsen Online. “Even as recently as five years ago, the only choice for community was to gather around the TV screen with co-workers or friends for major events. Now, there are three screens to choose from and, as our research shows, online activity actually reinforces TV viewing. So when outlets like CNN integrate their coverage with Facebook or MSNBC leans heavily on Twitter it demonstrates the public’s growing integrated use of TV, the web, and mobile for getting, and at times reporting, the news.”

Twitter Doesn’t Fail Tweeters

Terms and tags such as #MJ and #Michael Jackson dominated the top trends on Twitter.com yesterday, July 7, 2009. Interestingly, even the misspelling of the King of Pop’s first name as “micheal” also topped trends throughout the day.

Users watch the events of the day unfold on TV and online, often “tweeting” about the coverage offered by various media outlets. Since many were limited to watching coverage online while at work, Twitter featured frequent links and recommendations for live video feeds, most commonly CNN’s live feed with Facebook integration, followed by CBS News/Ustream, MSN, and MSNBC.

During the memorial service, recommendations and links to video stream slowed down, and viewers began to focus more of their “tweets” on the performances at the service, only distracted by news that social media sites Facebook.com and Twitter.com were out of capacity and/or had crashed. However, CNN.com did continue to be the most recommended live feed during programming. Following programming, recommendations shifted to video recordings posted on YouTube.com.

Findings from an  Internet snapshot from June 18, 2009:

• Wikipedia emerges within the top two search results for 4/5 of the leading topics.
• At least one social media source emerges within the top 10 search results for every term. In most cases, the social media sites emerge directly above a traditional, major news source, such as WSJ.com.

In a follow-up snapshot on June 24, a marked shift takes place, reaffirming the Iran election story as a watershed moment for online news and communications:

• YouTube emerges within the top 10 search results for all search terms in the second week.
• Wikipedia remains within the top three search results in the second week for four of the five search terms.
• Twitter emerges within the top 20 search results in week two – specifically, the Twitter results for Moussavi and Ahmadinejad. Of course, traditional news sources such as the BBC (and CNN, in week two) bubble to the top of search results, as do general information sites such as Yahoo.com and Infoplease.com.

What this means is that general human curiosity is driving people to look to all available sources for information.  The conflict in Iran presenting the latest and perhaps most sophisticated example of how the world has changed for journalists, the media and increasingly active media consumers alike.

So what else do the search results signify? Is consumer generated media (news by the people, for the people) eclipsing traditional sources? Are people more frequently linking to Wikipedia than the New York Times for information about Iran? What does it mean that Mashable is among the top three search results for “Iran Election?” What role does Twitter play? As major events break (Iran, Health Care, Michael Jackson) we will continue to dive into the data and present answers to these questions, both through our own analysis and through feedback and opinions of others. After all, if weve learned anything in the last few weeks, it’s that the power is in the hands of the people… What do you think?

Facebook and Myspace Stats

• With 144.3 million unique visitors, Facebook was the No. 1 global social networking destination in May 2009—the 7th month in a row that Facebook has ranked No. 1
• May 2009 also marked the 5th month in a row that Facebook has been the No. 1 social
  networking site in the U.S., garnering 75.4 million unique visitors—a 190 percent increase
  over May 2008
• Myspace.com continued as the top social networking site when ranked by total video
  streams in May, with 116.1 million video streams
• Unique viewers of video content at Myspace.com increased 22.9 percent month-over-month,
  from 9.9 million in April 2009 to 12.2 million in May 2009.

Download Nielsen Online’s May 2009 data on social networks.

“We have seen some very exciting growth in Facebook during the past year, and a subsequent decline in MySpace. Twitter has come on the scene in an explosive way perhaps changing the outlook for the entire space. The one thing that is clear about social networking is that regardless of how fast a site is growing, or a how big it is, it can quickly fall out of favor with consumers,” said Jon Gibs, vice president, media and agency insights, Nielsen Online. “Remember Friendster? Remember when MySpace was an unbeatable force? Neither Facebook nor Twitter are immune. Consumers have shown that they are willing to pick up their networks and move them to another platform, seemingly at a moment’s notice.”

Top 10 Social Networking and Blog Sites Ranked by Total Minutes for April 2009 and Their Year-over-Year Percent Growth (U.S., Home and Work)

Myspace Visitors Love Videos–Make it No. 1 Social Networking Site when Ranked by Video Streams

While the popular consensus is that Facebook has become the top dog in the social networking space-April was the fourth month in a row that Facebook held the top spot in both unique visitors and total minutes-Myspace has been winning in one arena: online video. With 120.8 million video streams, Myspace.com was the No. 1 social networking destination when ranked by streams and total minutes spent viewing video. Myspace visitors spent 384 million minutes viewing video on the site, with an average of 38.8 minutes per viewer. In comparison, Facebook visitors spent only 113.5 million minutes viewing video in April, with an average of 11.2 minutes per video viewer.

So maybe the better questions to ask are whom does each site reach — not who is “winning”  — and what audiences are they drawing and how are they building for the future to maintain the loyalty of their visitors who to this point have shown little long-term loyalty to any specific platform.

In April 2009, visitors aged 25 to 34 and 35 to 49 were the highest indexing age groups on Facebook, being 27 percent and 23 percent more likely to visit the site than the average user, respectively. In contrast, the highest indexing demographics on Myspace.com was people aged 18 to 24 and 12 to 17.

Unique Audience Composition Index by Age Group for Facebook and Myspace.com in April 2009 (U.S., Home and Work)