The launch of the Droid by Motorola–which runs Google’s Android 2.0 operating system–is the latest smartphone to be tagged “game changing iPhone killer.”  We prefer to view it as simply a quality choice in a growing line of smartphones rather than something that will stifle the competition. With only 10,000 applications available in the Android market and more than 100,000 available for the iPhone, the Droid–or any Android phone–won’t be killing the iPhone anytime soon. What the Droid will do is advance the use and adoption of web content to a connected device. Android’s integration with popular and widespread Google applications such as Gmail, Google Calendar and Google Voice is a big help as is its ability to run multiple applications (up to six on the Droid). Most users do this on their computers so being able to listen to music while browsing the web and sending email makes a multi-tasking smartphone an appealing option.

The Competition to The Competition

The mobile marketplace is not just a faceoff between the iPhone and Droid; over the next few months, there are at least six new devices on deck that will have large screens like the Droid, keyboards (the Droid has both a virtual and physical keyboard), and an ever-increasing number of applications.

Nielsen’s data from Q3 2009 suggests that if you buy an Android phone, you’ll likely use more of the data features more often than if using any other smartphone.

Also, for the first time in Q3, Nielsen saw more users accessing the Internet on smartphone than that of feature phone users. If this trend continues, we’ll see more than 80% of the devices accessing the Internet being these advanced phones.

The Mobile Universe is Expanding

In Q3 2009, historically the slowest phone sales quarter, more than 25% of all phones sold were smartphones. Expect Q4 to have more than 40% of the new phones sold be smart devices. This is important to watch as smartphones are on track to be the majority of phones in the U.S. by 2011. Projecting Nielsen data out through 2010, we see smartphones crossing 50% of the market by the middle of 2011, roughly equal to 150 million users. This shift could happen much faster with the right conditions such as continued competitive price points on devices, lower “all you can eat” data packages and the increasing consumer need to be connected anytime, anywhere.

By mid-2011, the U.S. should be just over 300 million mobile subscribers. If we assume that we will have over 150 millions uses of smartphones (based on our projections) and that 80% of these users will access the Internet and 60% will access video (given the current data trend these assumptions may actually be low), this means that over 120 million mobile users will be on the Internet and 90 million will be watching video. What we have typically called the “third screen” is quickly becoming an extension of the first and second screens (TV and desktop viewing) especially in some key demographics. Note how Hispanics and African-Americans over-index on Mobile Video and Internet Usage.

Overall, we see mobile media growth accelerating over the next year with more users paying for video and premium content. Remember,  the mobile phone is the one media device that is always within reach. The trend in the U.S. is more interaction, more consumption, and more connected devices. While not a competition killer, the Droid is the next logical step in a market with a wide array of rich media devices. As that trend continues, the battle for better smartphones with better access to content will wind up seeing the consumer as the clear winner.

Jon Stewart, Research Director, Technology & Search
and Chris Quick, Mobile Media Analyst, The Nielsen Company

SUMMARY: The mobile media landscape is primed for accelerated growth. Smartphone sales are predicted to lead the way, accounting for nearly half of worldwide sales by 2013. Mobile consumers around the world weigh in on the features, functions and data applications they find most desirable. The key driver of mobile growth is good devices and fast, affordable data. Understand what vehicles are most effective in reaching consumers.

Growing from a niche opportunity for games and ringtones, the mobile media landscape has flourished into a full-blown marketplace for advertising, rich media content, ecommerce and unparalleled utility—bringing about one of the biggest changes in the media and advertising business in a generation.

A perfect storm is imminent. The market is primed for accelerated growth well into 2010. What will “phone” mean to the next generation of consumers and what applications, functions and features are the most effective in reaching today’s consumers. A review of these opportunities reveals important insights into what is driving mobile growth in the U.S and abroad.

Apps-titude
Nielsen examined mobile media usage across 14 countries and discovered some interesting patterns. China has the highest penetration of software/application downloaders, ringtone downloaders, and mobile Internet users. At 89% penetration, text messaging is nearly as prevalent as voice services in Mexico, which is also the highest penetration of any media activity in any country analyzed.

Canada ranked first for content uploads and game downloads. The United States clicked into first place for picture messaging/MMS (multimedia message services) and location based/global positioning services.

Purchase criteria
Mobile consumers around the world applied different criteria when deciding what phone to purchase. Cost was the top factor across the board—especially influential among buyers in Turkey, South Africa and India. Brand or previous experience also weighed heavily among shoppers in Italy, Spain, Sweden and Russia. Ease of use was second most important factor for consumers in Germany, the United Kingdom and France. Design and style factored in for mobile users in Mexico, United Kingdom and the United States.

The features most desired by global mobile shoppers on their next purchase will be camera capability (number one in all 13 countries examined), followed by a built-in MP3 player and Bluetooth connectivity.

Growth drivers
In the fast-paced world of mobile media, the U.S. mobile subscriber base grew 7% to 277 million by the second quarter of 2009, which represented 221 million unique users, adjusting for multi-phone holders.

Among the many applications available on mobile devices, the fastest-growing segment in the U.S. was web video, which expanded by 33% to 20 million subscribers/15.2 million unique users, followed by multimedia messaging which jumped 29% representing 174 million subscribers/68 million unique users, and audio/application/game downloads which increased by 25% to 71 million subscribers and 39 million/27 million/23 million unique users per respective download.

Get smart
Perhaps more telling for the future of the industry, was the increase in the number of U.S. smartphone subscribers during the 2008-2009 Q2 period—a jump of 72% to 26.1 million users.

The Gartner Group predicts that smartphone sales will account for 46% of all mobile phone sales worldwide by 2013.

Currently, smartphone penetration varies by country. In Italy and Spain, more than one-quarter of new mobile handsets purchased were smartphones, with 28% and 23% market penetration respectively. The United States followed at 17%, Sweden at 13%, Canada-Germany-United Kingdom at 12% and France at 11%.

The newest generation of smartphones, like the Apple iPhone, the Palm Pre and the Blackberry Storm, combine cellphone connectivity with handheld computer capabilities like email, Internet, ebook readers, QWERTY keyboards, touchscreens, video, cameras and navigation software to name a few popular features and applications.

Dialed in
Smartphone owners in the U.S. tend to be male, younger (between the ages of 18–34), affluent (income of $75k+), and they use the phones for a mix of both personal and business purposes, with more emphasis on business usage. The profile of the iPhone user is similar, but skews even higher for the more affluent (twice as many in the $100k+ income group). A higher percentage of iPhone users also use the device for a mix of personal and business purposes (index of 160 for the iPhone compared to 220 for all smartphones).

One of the most appealing attributes of the U.S. smartphone owner, and particularly the iPhone user, is their appetite for data packages. All mobile subscribers spend $57.04 in billed services, with the monthly voice plan accounting for $35.40 and data extras adding $12.10 to the bill. Blackberry owners typically rack up $88.85 per month in charges, with $45.10 in voice plan costs and $28.20 in data extras. iPhone users spend nearly as much on data ($37.60) as they do on voice ($42.00) and have an average monthly bill of $89.35.

Surf city
Smartphone utilization underscores the point that, if you build a better browser and user experience, they will come. Almost 60% of all software/application downloaders were smartphone owners. More than half (55%) of all streamed music users did so using their smartphones. Smartphone owners also account for half of all active mobile Internet users, 41% of online game players and 38% of mobile instant messagers.

iPhone owners lead the way in media usage when it comes to mobile Internet (89%), text messaging (87%), software/application downloads and location-based services (75%), video/mobile TV (41%) and full track music (38%). The same market-leading usage pattern holds for iPhone’s built-in handset features like camera pictures (87%), Wi-Fi (77%) and speakerphone (72%). The sole exception is Bluetooth connectivity, where other smartphones feature a slightly higher utilization rate at 42% compared to 40% for the iPhone.

Transaction action
SMS (short message services), or text messages, reached 4.2 billion standard rate transactions in the U.S. on AT&T and Verizon in Q2 2009. The clear leader was Twitter with 1.3 billion messages, followed by FOX (due in large part to MySpace) with 740 million texts, Facebook at 465 million, and 4INFO at 257 million transactions. Total traffic was generated by 50 million unique users.

Stateside, social networking drove the growth train for mobile Internet, with a 187% increase in audience for the year ending July 2009. The distribution of 18.3 million unique social network users by the top three sites is Facebook (26% reach), MySpace (13% reach) and Twitter (7% reach).

Ad exposure
One-third of all mobile data users were exposed to some form of mobile advertising in Q2 2009. SMS and MMS comprised the two most popular forms of mobile advertising response. Roughly 16% of consumers responded to mobile ads most frequently via text message, a picture or MMS message, email or by visiting a designated web site.

Teenagers were the most accepting of mobile advertising—the acceptance rate declines as age increases. Perceptions of mobile ads were highest among all age groups if it lowered their bill. Consumers age 45+ were the least accepting of mobile ads. The Yankee Group forecasts mobile ad revenues could see faster growth than online, predicting a 60% jump in 2009 to $184 million. By 2013, that amount could reach in $566 million range.

Mobile marketing opportunity
Companies looking to drive sales should leverage mobile marketing activities like providing product information, coupons, discounts, event notification and mobile search. Another high-return approach would be to employ mobile’s innate capability to enhance the consumer interaction with a brand, providing information, inspiration or helpful functionality.

Companies who are finding success have developed specialized applications that were either fun or functional, scoring high on consumer engagement. Optimally, marketers will strike a balance between utility and enrichment, marrying the two into a unique, timely mobile consumer experience that makes best use of these dynamic devices.

In Latin America, Nielsen reports sales of mobile phones have had a noteworthy increase in the last years, even though they are starting to have a diminution in the growth rate. Comparing the first quarter of 2009 against the same period of 2008, the sales rate has slowed down to 12%.

Countries such as Mexico and Brazil—where the density of devices per inhabitant is still smaller than that of the regional average—prompted sales with double digit unit gains of 20% and 16% respectively. Corresponding U.S. dollar sales rates were more modest, at 3% for Mexico and 6% for Brazil. Together, given their relative size, mobile device sales in these two countries offset the combined unit sales losses unilaterally in Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela.

Considering the market size in the region, if each mobile phone owner has at least one line, it is estimated that there are 460 million active lines in Latin America. This represents an important new growth channel and significant opportunities for the Telecom industry. It is estimated that in the next few years, sales of Smartphones will continue to increase, giving rise to the growth of the Value Added Services (VAS) penetration.

Like their North American counterparts, Latin Americans were interested in mobile phone features. In the last year, handsets sold in the region included camera (61%), radio (55%) and MP3 player (35%). All of these features showed considerable growth when compared to the previous year.

Motivating factors
An in-depth segmentation analysis in Brazil was conducted to understand what cell phone users in the region were looking for—convergence, greater connectivity, more entertainment or features. Four distinct segments of cell phone consumers were identified: 16% of Brazilian subscribers use only voice features, 28% use voice and SMS capabilities, 37% use features offline (such as; camera, MP3 player, etc.) and finally, 19% use value-added services, which include Internet access, ringtone downloads, etc.

Value-added service users accrue greater expenses—bills are typically 20% more than the average voice-only mobile user’s tab. These consumers tend to be younger (almost two-thirds are under age 34) and 40% reside in more affluent socio-economic levels, which makes the middle class an important market opportunity for expansion.

In Brazil, the VAS consumers are using the device as a downloader tool, when going online.

Understanding the particular segmentations in each market becomes crucial in order to reach the consumer with the most appropriate offer. This kind of analysis provides a more complete and insightful look into subscribers to understand motivations that drive the decision-making process.

“As with other forms of Internet technology, more men were early-adopters of the mobile Web and still make up a slightly larger presence today,” commented Chris Quick, client services manager, mobile media. “Now that the technology is more mainstream, women are quickly embracing the benefits as ‘connected consumers,’ tapping the convenience of Web access on mobile phones to network, browse the latest shopping deals and get ideas for dinner, all while on the go.”

Mobile and gender

From celebrity news to shopping, mobile Web usage by women traversed a variety of subjects and actions in July, including online shopping and social networking. Women were 1.4 times more likely to visit People.com and use AT&T search via a mobile Web device in July.

In July, men’s mobile Web interests centered on news, sports and online games. Men were 1.8 times more likely to visit Gizmodo – the technology news site – via a mobile phone, making it the No. 1 Web site visited by men on their mobile devices in July in terms of unique audience composition.

Teen take

Teen usage of mobile phones focuses heavily on texting, both sending and receiving. In Q2 2009, the top-ranked mobile activity for teens was messaging, with 84 percent of teens sending a text message and 55 percent of teens sending a picture message.

What outlook should we have when contemplating the future of mobile video? For content providers, carriers, advertisers and consumers, mobile video is often a glass-half-full / glass-half-empty scenario. Yes, the industry is placing tremendous attention and investment in the medium – but, by comparison its reach is fairly humble. And yes, the possibility for future growth is enormous when we consider content and commerce potential– but, it’s a complicated path to that future.

For some perspective, we turn to Nielsen’s latest Mobile Video Report, which paints the picture either way: It provides affirming insights on mobile video’s best year yet. Nonetheless, it highlights substantial limitations and challenges ahead.

Glass Half-Full – Mobile Video’s Best Year Ever

• Reach, up 70 percent year over year, crossed the 10 million active viewer mark in 2008 and kept going – up to 15.3 million active viewers as of Q2 2009 (that’s roughly 7% of all US mobile subscribers)
• With “All You Can Eat” mobile data packages and increased access to mobile video over the mobile Web, access to mobile video content is more affordable than ever. A subscriber with a data package that includes video now pays $5.73 a month, on average, compared to $8.32 a year ago. Meanwhile, most mobile video viewers today aren’t even paying for a special package, but instead access mobile web through mobile Web access, simplifying the means to mobile video
• Though average subscription cost of mobile video is down, added reach still helped carriers claim a record $308 million in mobile video subscriptions in Q2 2009, up 11% compared to the prior quarter

Glass Half-Empty – Many phones not answering the call

• Half of U.S. mobile subscribers still carry phones that aren’t even capable of viewing video (52%), that’s just a marginal improvement over two years ago (62%). The adoption rate of mobile-video capable phones slowed as the economy weakened
• Among mobile video viewers, satisfaction with the overall experience went down over the last year (74% in Q2 2008 to 65% in Q2 2009). Even more troubling, consumer satisfaction decreased around undeniably improving components such speed, reliability, content, price and general audio and video quality.
• The mobile video audience is churning quickly. Disproportional to year-over-year audience growth, today’s mobile video audience is made up mostly of viewers still in their first year of use (78%). Since its introduction, the adoption rate of mobile video has been governed by a revolving audience of mobile video “testers,” viewers who try out the medium for under a year and then ditch it. Mobile video today still lacks the stickiness it needs for more rapid growth.

A mixed bag for sure, but no matter your take on mobile video, today, it’s hard to deny that a confluence of factors — better devices, faster networks, dedicated programmers, consumer interest – prime the pump for the broader, if bumpy, adoption of the platform. In short, the catalysts for growth are now in place.

A different kind of growth

Perhaps adoption of mobile video may look more like the gradual, linear adoption of DVRs than the exponential growth of portable MP3 players and the similarity wouldn’t be a coincidence. DVRs and mobile video are analogous in their transformational nature: technologies that fundamentally alter the time or place of media consumption. That’s a very distinct evolution from a technology such as the MP3 player, which did not change the time or place of the portable CD player, but simply refined the user experience of that medium – thus the adoption of the MP3 player was a logical adoptive progression for the consumer. The extent to which mobile video asks consumers to fundamentally alter their consumption patterns should not be understated.

Choose (cautious) optimism

At 6.5% penetration, it’s easy to be a pessimist about mobile video, to see the half-empty glass. But after posting its best year yet, after 70% year over year growth, it’s wiser to be a cautious optimist. Mobile video is a transformational technology that will require real changes or additions to the consumer media diet. As such, it may have a long way to go before making a dramatic impact on our media economy. When it does, though – when mobile video adoption further dissolves barriers of video’s time and place – the beneficiaries will be those who participated in its evolution, those who anticipated and planned for this demand.

Share your thoughts below or email me for more on Nielsen’s latest Mobile Video Report nic.covey@nielsen.com.

We have seen that the mobile industry is on a fast-track, with massive growth in mobile marketing, advertising and paid-content for users. But what is really leading this growth is the increase in quality devices and fast, affordable data. While smartphone ownership was once just a business tool, more consumers than ever are using smartphones in their everyday lives. In the past year alone, the total number of smartphone subscribers increased 72% quarter-over-quarter, growing from 15 million subscribers in Q2 2008 to 26 million in Q2 2009. While the penetration level of smartphone users is still fairly low – nearly 17% in Q2 2009 – they make up half of the mobile Web audience.

Italy Leads in Smartphone Adoption

Despite America’s reputation as a nation of big talkers — the U.S. is not setting the pace in smartphone adoption — ranking third when ranked by penetration. Italy has the largest percentage of smartphone owners at 28%, while Spain is not far behind with 23%. France has the most room to grow, with an 11% penetration level.

Smartphone Gender Gap Continues

With the continued expansion of smartphone ownership in the U.S. and the availability of more affordable devices, the market is opening up to a wider range of consumers. However, we continue to see similar demographic profiles for smartphone owners as we did a year ago. While smartphone usage is shifting from purely business use to both personal and business use, owners are still more than two times as likely to own a smartphone for business usage only. Smartphone owners continue to be predominantly male, are 65% more likely than the average mobile subscriber to be between the ages of 25 and 34, and nearly two times as likely to make more than $100,000 a year.

What’s Next?

So while more people are buying smartphones and penetration levels are increasing, the demographics are not significantly changing yet. There is a lot of untapped potential available to marketers to reach a whole new generation of smartphone users. Is your mobile marketing strategy as smart as your phone?

But while mobile media use has grown rapidly in recent years, mobile advertising has been slow to take hold, Nielsen Mobile reported in a white paper released Tuesday.

In the U.S., some 76.8 million mobile users recall seeing advertising on their phones, according to Nielsen, but 63% report encountering mobile ads only infrequently — once a month or less.  Meanwhile, less than two-thirds of website homepage page views feature mobile advertising.

Lack of awareness of the size of the U.S. mobile audience, the complexity of the mobile marketing ecosystem, and advertisers’ reluctance to invest in mobile advertising are among the key factors restricting mobile ad growth, Nielsen’s analysts note.

View the full white paper.

Read MediaPost’s coverage of Nielsen’s findings.

Learn more about the outlook for mobile advertising – check out VentureBeat’s Q&A with Nielsen’s Senior Vice President of Mobile Media, Jesse Goranson