To help narrow the focus of this analysis, Nielsen filtered the field to those titles releasing on at least one of the three major consoles (Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, Wii) during the timeframe of late August to late November. This year’s list underscores the various interests of gamers—as well as the strength of video game brands. All but one of the Top 20 titles stem from a franchise, with brands such as Madden NFL and The Legend of Zelda dating back more than 20 years. Deep Silver’s Dead Island represents the lone new IP included on this year’s list.

Activision’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3, an expected juggernaut for this holiday season, is desired by more than one quarter (27%) of active gamers. Microsoft’s Gears of War 3 and EA’s Madden NFL 12 follow closely behind; both titles were selected by nearly one out of every five (19%) active gamers. Apart from Gears of War 3 for Xbox 360, other platform exclusives expected to resonate strongly with consumers in the coming months include Nintendo’s The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword for Wii and Sony’s Uncharted 3: Drake’s Deception for PS3.

Nielsen’s Top 20 Games to Watch is supplemented by information from NM Incite, a Nielsen McKinsey company, which analyzed the primary elements driving consumers’ online conversations around each title. Recent consumer buzz shows that those anticipating Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed: Revelations are excited for the return of multi-player functionality to the franchise, while gamers looking forward to Warner Bros Interactive’s Batman: Arkham City are speculating on the villains they’ll face in the new title. Fans of EA’s FIFA franchise are hoping for more pro and career mode options in the upcoming iteration, and those addicted to Microsoft’s Dance Central are rejoicing in the news that they’ll be able to import tracks from the original title into the sequel.

While Action/Adventure games hold the most spots in the Top 20, the list is a testament to the diverse interests of today’s gamers—from the intense action of First Person Shooters like Square Enix’s Deus Ex: Human Revolution, to the energetic enthusiasm of Music / Rhythm games such as Ubisoft’s Just Dance 3, to the epic sense of adventure in Bethesda’s RPG Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim. Sports and racing titles like 2K’s NBA 2K12 and EA’s Need For Speed: The Run are represented as well.

For background, Microsoft’s Project Natal has been billed as providing controller-free gaming and navigation for the Xbox 360 with movements on the screen based on players’ physical gestures. Sony’s Move for the PlayStation 3 utilizes a motion-capturing controller, plus a secondary “sub-controller” providing additional functionality. Both were revealed at E3 last year and rely in part on an integrated camera to capture movement. Of course, motion control is not new: Nintendo released the Wii in 2006 in the US.

So how do Natal and Move fare in terms of consumer response going into E3? Fully 23% are aware of Move and 21% of Natal among the total group of gamers surveyed, regardless of systems owned. For those who actually own, play and purchase games for the requisite consoles already, 42% of PlayStation 3 gamers are aware of Move and 39% of Xbox 360 gamers are aware of Natal. Gamers voice slightly greater purchase interest for Natal, though the differences are small between gamers for the relevant consoles. Those who are aware voice substantial definite purchase interest which speaks to the high anticipation among the most engaged consumers in the category.

Microsoft Project Natal

Sony Move

* Defined as those who are “definitely” interested in buying among those who are aware of Natal/Move

** Release date expectations were asked among those who are aware of each motion control system

These figures represent something of an initial read in that many key details, such as specific games supported and price, have yet to be released, and advertising campaigns have not yet shifted into gear. Indeed, nearly 40% of gamers state that they don’t know when either of these motion control systems will be available despite the fact that both companies have publicly stated that plans are to release these in the holiday timeframe.

One detail which has received much scrutiny is price. There have been wide-ranging estimates about these in the blogosphere and consumer views reflect some of this uncertainty. Gamers are fairly united in believing that Move will cost somewhere between $26 and $75. Sony has stated that the price will be below $100 so this is perhaps unsurprising. But for Natal there is a fairly wide distribution, with 27% thinking it will cost over $100 but a near equal 31% believing it will be under $50. It will be interesting to see if pricing is clarified next week and if so, how consumers perceive the value.

The presentations of Natal and Move are highly anticipated in the industry as these products are seen as potential catalysts for holiday season buying. It will be important to gauge consumer response over the coming weeks and months as more details are revealed.

Uncharted 2 Shows Improved Strength in Key Tracking Metrics Compared to Predecessor

An examination of data from Nielsen’s weekly Video Game Tracking service finds that Uncharted 2 garners more robust numbers throughout the measurement periods listed across metrics such as aided awareness, Pre-Order/Buy First Week and Definite and Definite/Probable Purchase Interest compared to the original Uncharted. The data table compares both titles across the aforementioned metrics at different points prior to their respective release dates*.

Comparison of Awareness and Purchase Interest

The sequel enjoys more than double the aided awareness of its predecessor across all points in the comparison period, with more than 40 percent of all PS3 gamers interviewed one week prior to the release of Uncharted 2 recognizing the title, compared to 17 percent for the original game same during the same time period.

The proportion of PS3 gamers who indicated high purchase urgency for Uncharted 2 – those who would pre-order the game or buy it during its first week of release – is three times higher for Uncharted 2 one week prior to its release than for the original title (9% vs. 3%., respectively).

Overall, 30 percent of PS3 gamers note positive purchase interest for Uncharted 2 one week prior to its release (14% definite), double the number who indicated interest in Uncharted during the same time period (14% positive purchase interest, 7% definite interest).

Comparison of Sources of Awareness

Online reviews/previews are the single greatest source of awareness for both Uncharted 2 and the original game among PS3 gamers one week prior to retail release. However, such reviews/previews are substantially higher for Uncharted 2, with 42 percent of PS3 gamers who are aware of the game noting that they have seen such online articles compared to 29 percent for the original Uncharted.

BuzzMetrics

Examining the three months leading up to their respective release dates, online chatter for Uncharted 2 was consistently higher than for the original game. Approximately four weeks before the launch of Uncharted 2, a spike in buzz occurred around the time the demo was released on PlayStation Network, indicating potential heightened awareness of the game within the online PlayStation community.

BuzzMetrics Comparison of Uncharted 2 with the original Uncharted

E3, Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony Buzz, May 24 – June 6, 2009

Microsoft kicked-off the excitement with a pre-expo press conference on Monday, announcing the new Project Natal, a hands-free motion sensing device for Xbox 360, and the upcoming The Beatles: Rock Band game. Even with an on-stage appearance by Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr to endorse the new Rock Band title, Project Natal overshadowed all other announcements, generating 12% of E3 discussion.

Not to be outdone, Nintendo and Sony each held press conferences on the first official day of E3, revealing major upcoming products of their own. Nintendo unveiled a new Vitality Sensor for Wii, but consumers more heavily discuss two upcoming games for the ever-popular Mario franchise, New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Mario Galaxy 2. In fact, New Super Mario Bros. Wii beats out other highly anticipated titles like God of War III for PS3 and Metal Gear Solid for Xbox 360 in buzz volume. Consumers also heavily discuss the PSP Go!, the new handheld gaming device officially unveiled by Sony on Tuesday. The new device makes up 11% of all E3 buzz, coming a close second behind the heavily discussed Project Natal in hardware-related discussion.

With a bevy of announcements expected from press conferences of the major players in the gaming industry, what are gaming enthusiasts discussing prior to the show? Even though most gamers agree that new developments for existing hardware is cool, console enthusiasts are more focused on what the future holds for upcoming games. One week before the conference, upcoming titles were mentioned in just over half of all E3 discussion, while the new PSP Go! and anticipated Xbox 360 motion sensor each garner less than 10% of E3 buzz. Unveilings are expected to occur for a long list of titles, but prior to the expo, games generating the most buzz include Gran Turismo 5 for PS3, Mass Effect 2 and Metal Gear Solid 4 + Oxide for Xbox 360, and Legend of Zelda: Spirit Track for Nintendo DS.