“In the previous Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence survey conducted in March, we were seeing the first signs that as far as the world’s consumers were concerned, the recession had bottomed out. Three months later, they’re starting to embrace the idea of recovery – which is a major turning point,” said Jonathan Banks, Business Insights Director, The Nielsen Company.

In Nielsen’s latest survey, which polled 14,029 online consumers in 28 countries late in June, 71 percent of respondents thought their country was in recession – a positive reduction of six points from a high of 77 percent when the survey ran in March 2009.

“The BRIC and Asian markets have recorded the greatest jumps in Consumer Confidence Indices in the past three months,” noted Banks. “Consumer confidence in India jumped 13 Index points, and climbed 9 points in Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Indonesia. Consumer confidence rose 8 Index points in Taiwan and Brazil, and 7 points in Singapore, Turkey, Russia, Philippines and the UK. The only exceptions to this upswing were in the USA and New Zealand, which held flat in the second quarter, with Germany the only country to register a decline of one Index point,” said Banks.

Even in the market registering a small decline – Germany – there are encouraging signs that a recovery is imminent. According to the Nielsen survey, nearly one in three Germans (29%) said the recession would be over in the next 12 months, compared to only 22 percent three months ago. One in three Germans also thought “now is a good time to buy the things they want”, indicating a renewed willingness to spend on discretionary items. Thirty-eight percent described their personal finances as “good” for the next year.

“This is one of the strongest indicators of a global consensus among consumers that the worst is over, and that finally, there is light at the end of this long tunnel. And consumers in emerging and Asian markets are clearly of the view that they are driving in the recovery lane now,” added Banks.
The latest Nielsen Confidence numbers are a welcome return to positive, confident territory for consumers in the developed Asian markets of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, who have been battling economic inertia and political instability for several quarters.

“Asian consumer confidence appears to have been boosted through successful government economic stimulus packages that were speedily and effectively implemented at the onset of the global recession,” noted Banks. In the world’s second largest economy, the Japanese government implemented tax breaks, introduced cash deductions and subsidies on new car purchases, as well as providing cash payment and premium gift coupon schemes to stimulate spending.

“As well as expanding credit terms to small and medium sized businesses, in Japan there are even incentives to purchase eco-friendly household appliances as part of the government’s new environmental policy, and national toll prices for motorways have been discounted to encourage domestic tourism,” observed Banks.

Stock market gains in the BRIC and Asian markets have also had a major impact on consumer confidence,” said Banks. More than any other region, stock markets in Asia have rallied and property prices are starting to regain their pre-recession values. Russia’s stock market is up 60 percent from the start of the year and Taiwan is up over 50 percent. Brazil and Singapore’s stock markets have gained around 40 percent in the past six months and the South Korea and Hong Kong stock markets are up over 30 percent. With stock market gains so intrinsically linked to consumer confidence in Asian markets, it’s no surprise that Asian consumers are most confident about a receding recession, led by Hong Kong (-14 pts), Taiwan (-13 pts), Singapore and Japan (-12 pts), India and China (-10 pts).

“Positive economic news and growing consumer optimism in the past few months have definitely led consumers in these markets to believe that economic recovery will come sooner rather than later,” said Banks. According to the Nielsen survey conducted in March this year, 28 percent of Singaporeans said they expected their recession to end within 12 months – last month this number rose to 39 percent. UAE consumers also share this sentiment. In March, 32 percent of UAE consumers thought the recession would be over within a year but in June 43 percent said they expected the recession to be over before the middle of 2010.

Latest Nielsen data also shows that consumer confidence in the UK – a country that has suffered one of the most dramatic downturns in consumer confidence in the last year – is on the rebound, climbing 7 Index points in the second quarter. “UK consumers are getting the hang of consuming less. People with jobs – still the overwhelming majority – now have more disposable income as they reduce spending on big-ticket items like cars and holidays. With mortgage interest rates at their lowest levels, savings rates are increasing quickly and this has increased financial confidence,” said Banks.
“Consumers know that recovery won’t happen overnight but there has certainly been more good news than bad in the past few months,” noted Banks.

The decline in constant bad economic news in the media has directly impacted on the topics consumers are talking and blogging about. According to Nielsen Buzzmetrics, Nielsen’s service for measuring online conversations, the number of online discussions, or” buzz”, in the UK mentioning the word “recession” dropped around 60 percent between late March and late June this year. “People’s obsession with the recession has switched to how to live and spend more moderately in a new economic era,” said Banks.

Italian consumers have also become more optimistic, showing a strong gain of 7 Index points – their highest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index since the second half of 2007. “Our survey supports recent Italian government figures which indicate that consumer confidence is returning to the Italian economy. In the last three months, Italian consumers’ concern for job security and the economy fell by 4 percentage points respectively, while average supermarket prices fell 0.2 percent in June 2009, indicating that consumers are less concerned about rising food bills than they were two years ago,” said Banks. The rise in consumer confidence in Italy has also been positively impacted by the government’s stimulus policies and the significant decline of negative economic coverage in the media. Online discussions mentioning the word “recession” have decreased by 35 percent this year according to Nielsen.

Globally, job security and the economy remained consumers’ top two concerns in life but even the level of these concerns has abated in the last three months and recorded declines of two and four index points respectively.

“Job security is the biggest concern for UAE consumers.  However, despite uncertainty levels tripling over the last six months, we are still among the top 10 countries with a comparatively higher perception of local job prospects.  More than one in three UAE consumers perceives their prospects as good or excellent over the next 12 months,” said Piyush Mathur, regional managing director, Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan at Nielsen.

In comparison, about a quarter of global consumers described their job prospects as bad in the coming year, with Latvians being particularly pessimistic – 78 percent responded negatively.

“Job concerns reflect in consumer spending habits.  For instance, consumers in the UAE are now tending to keep their spare cash in savings and using it to pay off their debts.  They are controlling discretionary spending, especially on clothing, entertainment outside the home and technology upgrades,” said Mathur.

To be fair, consumer confidence dropped 7 points in the March 2009 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index from September 2008.  But that drop is relatively small compared to most other countries, and China ranks tenth overall.  Chinese consumers are quietly optimistic about the next 12 months, thanks in part to an economy that is maintaining GDP growth – albeit modest – and a huge government stimulus package that was implemented earlier this year. Urban unemployment remains below 5 percent, and Chinese, like most Asians, have been saving their money to adapt to the changed environment.

With huge potential domestic demand and a global economy that is showing some early signs of life, China will continue to be an attractive place for both local and foreign businesses to flourish in the foreseeable future.

Read the full analysis into Chinese consumers’ quiet optimism in the current issue of Consumer Insight.

In the past six months, the index has plummeted to a record low 77 points from 84 points. The catalyst: Latin America, Russia and other emerging nations are now feeling the full effects of a recession that began in the United States, officially, in December.

Though consumer anxieties about the economy take many forms, the most widespread fear centers on job loss. For the first time in the Nielsen survey, it was global consumers’ top concern, ranking No. 1 in 31 out of 50 countries surveyed.

Six months ago, only 9 percent of respondents cited job security as their primary worry. Now, nearly a quarter (22 percent) indicated they were more worried about going without a paycheck than over issues like work/life balance and the economy overall.

“With global redundancies affecting every industry, the economy and job security have eclipsed all other concerns in life today,” said James Russo, Vice President of Global Consumer Insights at The Nielsen Company.

Declining confidence has changed spending habits, with 70 percent saying they have taken steps to save on household expenses. Purchases of new clothes and out-of-home entertainment are the biggest casualties, with 56 percent and 53 percent of respondents cutting spending in those areas respectively. Forty-five percent have cut down on takeout meals, and 41 percent have switched to less expensive groceries.

Even when the economy improves, 40 percent will continue to try to save on gas and electricity, down from 45 percent economizing in that area now. And more than 20 percent will continue to look for less expensive groceries, cut down on takeout meals and buy fewer new clothes.

U.S. Confident, But Not as Much as China

In contrast to global worries, the confidence of U.S. consumers dropped only slightly, to a score of 80 from 82 and 83 for the second and first halves of 2008, respectively. (For the sake of reference, overall U.S. consumer confidence indexed at 100 during the second half of 2007.)

The modest U.S. decline may be a harbinger of better times. “We may be at, or at least very near, a bottom in this economic cycle,” Russo said. “Specifically in the U.S., while [consumers are] clearly adjusting their spending and savings, with 40 percent stating they are paying off debts and putting into savings. Americans are increasingly optimistic.”

Indeed, nearly 20 percent of Americans polled predicted an economic recovery within the next 12 months. Internationally, nearly one in five (23 percent) said their countries will emerge from the recession within a year. The Vietnamese and Indians made this prediction most frequently, with response rates of 60 percent and 56 percent, respectively.

Despite consumer confidence falling overall, the survey revealed interesting disparities among respondent nations. Consumers in Indonesia, Denmark and India seemed to be the most optimistic, with confidence ratings of 104, 102 and 99, respectively. Still, 77 percent of those polled across the globe indicated their homelands were in recession, up from 63 percent who said the same thing six months ago. Surprisingly, 65 percent of Chinese respondents denied there was any recession in progress at all.

“While China’s economy has undoubtedly slowed, February retail sales are still 15 percent up on last year and many Chinese consumers now believe the next 12 months could be a good time to go back to investing in stocks and property,” said Chris Morley, managing director, The Nielsen Company China.

Nonetheless, the weight of currency devaluations, weak export markets and falling commodity prices caused emerging markets like Russia (down 29 points to 74), UAE (down 21 points to 89) and Brazil’s (down 15 points to 82) to turn in consumer-confidence figures that had plummeted significantly. Consumers were the most pessimistic in South Korea, with consumer confidence score of 31, Japan (42) and Latvia (48).

Perhaps the survey’s most telling finding was that Latin America has seen its confidence shaken. “Six months ago as developed markets hurtled towards the epicenter of a global recession, Latin America was the world’s most optimistic region,” Russo said. “However, it hasn’t taken long for the tentacles of the global recession to reach them.”

The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index, compiled twice a year, tracks spending habits and concerns among 25,420 Internet users across 50 countries. Respondents were surveyed between March 19 and April 2.

Download the report.