Top Local Markets
The rankings of the Top 10 local TV markets were unchanged, but in the Top 20, the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area moved ahead of Denver. No new markets entered the top 100, however there were several changes within the ranks. Austin, TX had the largest spike within the top 100 ranks, moving from 48 to 44.

Other notable local market changes:
There were more changes in the rankings compared to last year, yet still not as many as previous years. It was a tie for the largest increase in TV households, with Odessa-Midland and Austin, both rising four spots. The decline in the overall number of rank changes the past few years reflects overall slower household growth in the U.S. and large declines in domestic migration, particularly to Sun Belt areas. Major metropolitan areas lost less population than usual partially attributable to Baby Boomers delaying retirement plans, individuals unable to sell their homes, and/or individuals unwilling to move away from job-heavy markets. However, the recent increase in rank changes for this year seems to imply some of these phenomena are relatively short term and/or heavily contingent upon economic conditions.

Similarly, while many Florida markets had dropped in rank in the latest estimate (Tampa, Miami, Ft. Myers, Tallahassee) partially as a result of the aforementioned phenomenon, there is evidence of some “bounce back” for markets such as Miami and Tallahassee. Further, previous “high growth” markets (e.g. Las Vegas, Florida markets) which showed diminished growth or even declines in the last two estimates seemed to “stabilize” (i.e. maintain rank) for the most recent estimate. For all these markets, the decreases and/or growths do not necessarily reflect a true decline in population or households. The estimates may also reflect an adjustment to align with the most recent information from the U.S. Census Bureau.

For the first time since the Hurricane Katrina recovery period, the New Orleans market rank has declined (from 51 to 52). Though population in the market has increased, recent trends in Persons Per Household (PPH) indicate that previous PPH assumptions were too conservative (i.e. assuming fewer people per household). To better reflect contemporary population dynamics in the area, the PPH ratio was increased for the recent estimate, based on recent U.S. Census Bureau data, resulting in a smaller than usual increase in the Total Household estimate for this year which allowed the Buffalo market to pass New Orleans.

Leaving New Orleans
According to the 2000 Census, New Orleans was the 35th largest market in the U.S. with 1.32MM persons. Just before and shortly after Katrina, the New Orleans area lost 595,205 persons—most migrating to nearby counties to the north or to Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas.

In 2005, New Orleans dropped to the 59th largest market with 793,970 persons but then quickly recovered to the 49th largest market in 2006 with 993,071 persons. As of 2010, it has moved-up a few positions to the 46th largest market with 1,194,196 persons and is expected to retain that ranking in 2015 with a projected population of 1,264,365. The net result as of 2010, is that the New Orleans market dropped 11 positions in terms of its size relative to other markets within the U.S. (which grew by 4.7%) and is expected to remain so in the mid-term future.

Demographic Shifts
As the number of residents receded then return, the underlying demographics of New Orleans saw significant shifts. Since the storm, the city has become older (the median age rose from 34.0 to 38.8), less diverse (the white non-Hispanic population increased from 25.8 percent to 30.9 percent) and a bit wealthier (median income rose from $31,369 to $39,530).

Across New Orleans, the storm decimated downscale, African-American-dominated sectors. The eastern part of the city in low-lying areas took the brunt of the flooding, and members of these segments were least able to return to New Orleans. In Orleans Parish, the percentage of African Americans initially dropped from 67 percent to 58 percent in 2007 before returning to 61 percent in 2010.

“If your house received 10 feet of water, it cost a lot to repair it and many insurance companies didn’t make settlements for almost a year,” said Allison Plyer of the Greater New Orleans Community Data Center. “People needed money in the bank to start rebuilding their homes, and the neighborhoods that came back the fastest were the affluent ones. Those in poverty tended to be renters, and there was little assistance for rebuilding rental properties.” Among the lifestyle segments that actually grew were younger, upper-middle income renters (up 31% in 2009 compared to 2005) due to an influx of relatively upscale, younger residents who rent.

While the challenges facing New Orleans may have been profound, they were by no means unique. From tornadoes and earthquakes to fires and chemical spills, natural and man-made calamities test a community’s ability to gather and disseminate accurate population information to help indicate current status, progress and prognosis. “Absent data, it’s hard to make a credible case that you’re back,” says Michael Hecht, President and CEO of GNO, Inc., the economic development alliance for the greater New Orleans area. “Data is critical to attracting businesses and selling the city to people who would locate here.”

Download a detailed regional and demographic breakdown of post-Katrina New Orleans.

Washingtonpost.com was the leading newspaper website, with 24 percent of adults in the local market visiting the newspaper’s web site in the past week. 

Weekly Print Audience 

 * Gannett Wisconsin Newspapers include Appleton Post-Crescent, Fond du Lac Reporter, Green Bay Press-Gazette, Manitowoc Herald Times Repoter, Oshkosh Northwestern

Weekly Website Audience 

Integrated Newspaper Audience

Read the full press release.

According to Nielsen Claritas, they might start by taking a closer look at large, fast-growing metro areas, like Atlanta, Dallas, and Phoenix. 

These three markets ranked as the top three fastest growing U.S. markets in the last eight years — and could offer the retail industry some hard-to-come-by expansion opportunities, Nielsen reported in a new study released Monday.

“While some of these markets like Phoenix and Los Angeles have been hard hit by the recent wave of foreclosures, there has been no mass exodus from these markets or anywhere else.  People who have foreclosed most likely have not left the market but rather have just become renters,” Mike Mancini, Vice President of Data Product Management, Nielsen Claritas, and co-author of the new study, noted.  “Faltering markets, such as these, will likely rebound and continue to grow — and their underlying demographics are solid.”

As part of the study, Nielsen also identified seven key factors that correlate strongly with fast-growing, high-potential retail markets:

1) large land areas
2) booming suburban rings
3) widespread affluence
4) a growing Hispanic population
5) diversified employment
6) long commutes
7) the presence of lifestyle shopping centers

These indicators can be combined with demographic projections to identify markets that are likely to lead the way to economic recovery in the coming years.

In the meantime, according to Nielsen’s study, retailers looking for expansion opportunities should focus on booming college towns and resort locations, like Las Vegas, Austin, Texas, and Bend, Oregon; underdog college towns, like Columbia, Missouri, Corvallis, Oregon, and
Greensboro, North Carolina; knowledge worker havens, like Los Alamos, New Mexico, San Jose, California, Boulder, Colorado, and Minneapolis; and up-and-coming communities, like New Orleans, Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, and Brownsville, Texas.

View the study and accompanying press release and presentation. 

Download Nielsen Claritas’s October 30 Webinar, “New Leading Indicators of Growth — Finding Opportunity in a Slow-Growth Environment.”

Learn more about finding growth in challenging times, in the December issue of Nielsen’s “Consumer Insight” online newsletter.