Online buzz for Harry Potter in general has seen spikes around the movie trailer and impending opening of the movie.

First Film Drives Biggest Spike
During the four weeks following the November 2001 big screen debut of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, sales of the corresponding book more than tripled over the previous four weeks to 956,700 units. 223,200 Sorcerer’s Stone books were sold in the week of the movie’s debut alone. The excitement carried over to the entire series, with all four books then out seeing a sizeable increase in sales.

The most recent Harry Hollywood incarnation, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, had a less dramatic effect on the book brand at its July 2009 box office debut. All Harry Potter books saw an uptick in sales but on a lower scale: Half-Blood Prince sold 50,400 units the four weeks following the movie’s debut, compared to the 33,800 books purchased the four weeks prior.

2010 and Beyond?

The Harry Potter films demonstrate the close relationship between book and movie sales. A hugely popular book creates a ready market for an adapted film.  At the same time, movies can have a dramatic effect on the sales of their book counterparts. However the scale of impact of film adaptations on book sales and their ability to introduce new readers to the book series can diminish over time as a film series draws to an end.

“While the literary world is often the source of creative content for Hollywood, the relationship is reciprocal, as we often see Hollywood releases boosting book sales,” said Jonathan Nowell, President, Nielsen Book.

Eat, Pray, Love has seen a rise in book sales, with 94,000 units sold in the week ending in August 1 alone, the same number of total units sold for the entire 2006 year, when the book was first published. So far, in 2010, the book has sold more than twice as many copies as all of 2009.

Last year, the book-to-movie bounce was seen most notably with “Julie & Julia,” which helped drives sales not only for Julie Powell’s Julie & Julia, but also the Julia Child cookbooks that were Powell’s inspiration.

Other book-to-movie titles with a strong appeal to women have also seen a lift, despite a reduced media and box office profile. The February 2010 release of Dear John by Nicholas Sparks, author of other shelf-to-screen hits including The Notebook, sparked an uptick in book sales, contributing to over 1 million units sold during the 2010 year-to-date, nearly half of the book’s 2.4 million total sales. My Sister’s Keeper by Jodi Picoult made its silver screen debut in June 2009, five years after its original publication run. This novel also achieved its highest weekly sales number during the week of the film’s release with 81,000 units sold.

While DVD sales declined for a third straight year in 2009, consumer appetite for viewing movies at home remains very healthy as new physical and digital services for buying and renting movies gain in popularity. The proliferation of movie rental kiosk machines over the last year was probably the most visible sign of consumer interest in viewing movies at home.

To understand the impact of rental kiosks and other movie services on household disc purchasing (DVD and Blu-ray), Nielsen fielded a survey to our panelists who were identified as disc buyers and asked them to report their movie transactions from channels not tracked by scanning. This included rental transactions (both physical and digital rentals) and downloads.

One finding from the study was that average disc purchasing (buy rate) among households who also rented movies on physical DVD or Blu-ray declined in 2009 at a steeper rate compared to the average for all disc buying households. The buy rate among households renting a movie on DVD or Blu-ray declined by -11% in 2009 vs. -7% among all disc buying households.

Survey results indicated that 34% of these renting households had rented a movie from a kiosk.

In addition, households renting from a kiosk are increasingly turning to kiosks to rent movies with 63% reporting that they had rented more movies from a kiosk in the past 12 months compared to the prior 12 months.

Demographically, disc buying households who also rented from a kiosk were more likely to have children under the age of 18 and skewed towards a suburban lifestyle when compared to the average disc buying household. Despite the value proposition of renting a movie from a kiosk for a dollar a day, these households are more likely to be on the upper end of household incomes.

The films and the nominees certainly play a role in the size and demographic makeup of the Oscar viewer. In years where a minority was nominated in a major category, viewership among that ethnic group grew, most notably with African American viewership. Precious, which is nominated for best film also boasts nominees for best actress in a leading (Gabourey Sidibe) and supporting (Mo’Nique) role as well as director Lee Daniels. Past winner Morgan Freeman (Invictus) is also nominated this year.

With the Academy Awards on March 7, fans online are increasingly discussing the nominees for best picture (a category that has expanded to include 10 films this year) along with the actors and actresses nominated in a lead role.

While it’s an honor just to be nominated… Avatar dominates (much like it did at the global box office) the conversations in the movie category, grabbing nearly a quarter of all buzz surrounding the Oscar-nominated films.

In the main acting categories, Golden Globe winners Jeff Bridges (for Crazy Heart) and Sandra Bullock (for The Blind Side) take the buzz lead with more than a quarter of the buzz against their competition.

So what are they watching? Family and action adventure films are popular, but Hispanics command the highest share of audience in the horror/thriller and romantic comedy genres. And they are not just going to the cinema; Hispanic households are 24 percent more likely to purchase DVDs than the average American household.

By understanding the unique consumption habits of Hispanics, the movie industry can tailor a portion of its advertising to a box office constituency that can build brand awareness and success for movies to come.  Read more about the movie-going habits of Hispanics in the current edition of Consumer Insight.

As the sixth movie in the Harry Potter franchise, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, is released this week, The Nielsen Company has prepared an overview of the impact of the two series across media.

Book Sales*

*Includes all formats of the book (i.e. hardcover, paperback, audio, etc.). Does not include sales prior to BookScan launch Janaury 2001.

Box Office

The first movie in the Harry Potter series, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, opened on 11/16/01 bringing in $90.1 million in its opening weekend, and going on to haul in a total of $317.6 million domestically. The most recent release, 2007’s Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, had the largest opening day total of the series with $44.2 million on Wednesday 7/11/07. With each movie in the series debuting at #1 on its opening weekend and raking in $200+ million in the U.S, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince has some pretty big goblets to fill.


Twilight has also proved popular among moviegoers as the first installment of the series took in $69.9 million and the top spot at the box office in its opening weekend and a domestic total of $191.4 million.

Soundtrack

Although both franchises include big-budget theatrical releases, the style of their soundtracks is worlds apart. The Harry Potter soundtracks play more like the movie’s score with noted composer John Williams authoring the first three soundtracks in the series which have combined album sales of over a million copies to-date. Twilight’s soundtrack includes a compilation of songs performed by popular artists – film’s star Robert Pattinson even recorded an original track – and has sold just over 2.1 million copies since its release.

Television

So far this year Harry Potter movies have aired a total of 33 times on cable nets ABC Family, Disney Channel, HBO and Cinemax with ABC Family claiming four out of the five most-watched telecasts.

Online Buzz

Buzz tracking the two franchises shows that Harry Potter still dominates buzz, even amid the week where the Twilight movie is making its debut in the fall of 2008. [click to enlarge buzz graph]

A review of Best Picture winners over the past five years reveals that only one film – Crash, which took home the award in the 2005 – was released outside the fourth quarter (it was released in early May).  But summer flicks hold their own when it comes to winning awards: the top 10 movies in 2008, based on advertising spending from May through August, included four films with nominations in other categories.  Wall-E, which was ranked third after spending over $38 million in advertising during this period, was nominated in six categories – and raked in $63.1 million box office sales.

Read more about how advertising can make or break a film in the latest issue of Consumer Insight.

According to a recent study by Nielsen Preview, viewership of the Academy Awards is directly impacted by the box office draw of the best picture nominees and the popularity of the host.

During the 2004 Academy Awards (hosted by Billy Crystal), there was a 28% increase in households tuning in. This was the year that “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” was nominated (and won) best picture. A blockbuster hit, generating over $350M in revenues, the movie’s broad appeal translated to a strong ratings boost to nearly all demographics.

Host popularity and awareness, as defined by Nielsen EDI, also has a profound affect on ratings. The highest rating for women 18-24 was in 2007 – the year Ellen Degeneres hosted. Ellen’s appeal with women also buoyed ratings (which had fallen in prior years) among women 35-55+.

For more information and an outlook for the upcoming 2009 Academy Awards, click here.