Kids Today…

• Are the Heaviest Mobile Video Viewers: On average, mobile subscribers ages 12-17 watched 7 hours 13 minutes of mobile video a month in Q4 2010, compared to 4 hours 20 minutes for the general population.
• Are More Receptive to Mobile Advertising than their Elders: More than half (58%) surveyed in September 2010 said they “always” or “sometimes” look at mobile ads.
• Out-Text All Other Age Groups: In Q1 2011, teens 13-17 sent an average of 3,364 mobile texts per month, more than doubling the rate of the next most active texting demo, 18-24 year olds (1,640 texts per month).
• Talk Less on the Phone: Besides seniors 65-plus, teens talk the least on their phones, talking an average of 515 minutes per month in Q1 2011 versus more than 750 minutes among 18-24 year olds.
• Grew Up in the Age of Social Media—and It Shows: While they make up just 7.4 percent of those using social networks, 78.7 percent of 12-17 year olds visited social networks or blogs.
• Watch Less TV than the General Population: The average American watched 34 hours 39 minutes of TV per week in Q4 2010, a year-over-year increase of two minutes. Teens age 12-17 watch the least amount of TV on average (23 hours 41 minutes per week).
• Spend Less Time on their Computers: American 18 year olds averaged 39 hours, 50 minutes online from their home computers, of which 5 hours, 26 minutes was spent streaming online video per month.

Quick Facts

• High income families view less TV but spend more time viewing with kids, using time-shifted media four times more often than low income households.
• Mobile serves as a key source of connectivity within the Hispanic community. They are more likely than the average household to have cell phones with Internet (55%) and video (40%) capabilities and text more than any other race or ethnicity, sending 943 texts per month.
• African-American media habits are TV- and mobile-centric. They own four or more sets per household and spend almost 40 percent more time watching TV, especially premium cable channels, than the U.S. average. African Americans also run up more mobile voice minutes per month—1,261—than any other group.
• Asian-Americans exhibit a huge appetite for online media, logging 80 hours on the Internet and viewing 3,600 web pages, 3.5 times more than any other ethnic group.
• Marriage is so 20th century! In 1960, 72 percent of the adult population was married. By 2008, that number plummeted to 52 percent. The college educated have the highest marriage rates; those with a high school education or less, the lowest rates.

For more, download the report The New Digital American Family.

Our global trust in advertising survey illustrated that the online ad industry has a lot of work to do when it comes to reaching the levels of trust consumers already have in traditional media ads.Aside from brand Web sites (trusted by 70 percent of online consumers globally) e-mails, sponsored search links, video ads, banner ads and mobile text ads are at the bottom of the trust league. Of course, traditional media advertising forms have been around much longer and, consequently, consumers have had more time to become familiar with these formats, while advertisers and publishers have had more time to come up with the right ad models.

Online is still an embryo compared to these other advertising life forms. It has grown so rapidly that the industry has struggled to come up with a suitable model in these early days. The spam industry has practically killed any chance of e-mail marketing becoming the effective method it really should be. Pop-up ads, and the insane experiments to make it as tricky as possible for consumers to close them, have in fact helped to create negative perceptions surrounding display advertising. Add to this, the irrelevance and inaccuracies of many sponsored link ads when it comes to locating exactly what you’re looking for, and it’s easy to see why online, to a degree, has shot itself in its embryonic foot.

However, can the Web actually become the saviour of the global advertising industry? Trust in almost all forms of advertising is up. Is it possible that the explosion of social media and the ensuing trust in consumer opinions online is forcing advertisers to use a more realistic form of messaging grounded in the experience of consumers rather than lofty ideals of advertisers?

We’ll see, but at the moment I’ll be more interested in what you think of these points…

To address this, we’re working closely with our clients to develop ways in which display advertising is served so that it becomes a more effective medium for brand advertisers and a more trusted form of advertising in the mind of consumers. Here’s hoping that when we next run the survey, online ad formats are closer to the top of the trust league.

Although 40 percent said that the media did a poor job of informing them of the issues that led to the crisis, 52 percent say that the media is now helping them to better understand the issues at play while 23 percent said that they were let down by the media.  Another 25 percent were ambivalent.  A similar number (53%) thought that they were getting good information from the media about the steps governments were taking to address the economy, while 20 percent thought that more information was needed.

The views of New Zealanders largely echoed those of others in the Asia Pacific region, which were generally less critical of the media than Europeans and Americans.  In North America, 51 percent of those surveyed said that media coverage leading up to the crisis was inadequate, while 48 percent of Europeans thought the same.  The Swiss were the most fatigued by media coverage – 42 percent were tired of reading about gloom and doom – followed by the Dutch (41%) and the Irish (38%).

Lisa Rider, Vice President, Retail Marketing, U.S., The Nielsen Company

SUMMARY: Conspicuous consumption is giving way to a conscious consumerism that favors thrift and fosters an appreciation for value-priced store brands. The winning store brand formula combines two key factors: better perceived value for the money and products that meet or exceed expectations. Nielsen shares five best practices that define a successful store brand strategy and introduces the six consumer segments that shop them.

Bad economic times are providing a good financial impetus to store brands. The Private Label Manufacturers Association in the U.S. determined that shoppers can slash their grocery bill up to 30% by purchasing store brands. During the year ending February 2009, Nielsen reports that store brands in the U.S. posted $84.4 billion in sales, a nearly 10% annual increase attributable in large part to consumables like dairy, packaged meats, frozen foods, deli, dry grocery and alcoholic beverages. During the same period, store brands outperformed the national brands reported 2.3% increase, and corresponding total store results of a 3.5% uptick.

Not only are store brands posting impressive value and volume sales gains, they are doing so in categories that were traditionally resistant to private label goods. These include hair and skin care, baby food, diapers and baby care products, household cleaning chemicals, cough and cold, oral care, antacids, whole bean coffee and tea, cooking sauces and glazes, breath fresheners, carbonated beverages and feminine hygiene products.

Global view
There’s plenty of room for the American store brand trend to turn into a juggernaut, since the domestic 17% store brand share trails the uptake in western European counterparts like Switzerland (46%), the UK (44%), Germany (32%), Spain (29%), Belgium (28%), Austria (27%), Canada and France (26%). Given the interdependency of the global economic markets, the appetite for store brands may well be increasing across affected regions.

Image issues
A U.S. 2008 Nielsen store brand survey, designed to replicate a 2005 study, determined that consumer perception of store brand quality continues to improve. Once viewed as upstart offerings that sacrificed quality for price, store brands have gone mainstream and achieved parity on quality criteria.

Almost two-thirds of study respondents in the U.S. rated store brand quality equal to national brands, and more than 70% felt store brands were a good alternative to national brands. Perhaps the best testament to store brand gains is the fact that more than 90% of U.S. households said they feel comfortable serving store brands to guests.

Six shopper segments
To better understand, reach and target the store brand consumer, Nielsen divided shoppers into six discrete segments based on attitudes toward store brands and shopping behavior by store brand tier. The six segments include:

• Downscale Value Committed—patronize downscale retailers, are committed to the value tier retailers because of good quality/value relationship
• Downscale Value Price Driven—shop downscale retailers because price drives their purchases, but have negative quality/value perceptions
• Mainstream Loyals—looking for mid-tier or national brand equivalents at mainstream retailers
• Upscale Premium—shop upscale retailers, buy premium store brands that command a big part of their budget
• Low-Spend Potentials—despite positive store brand perceptions, spending levels are low compared with other segments
• Low-Spend Rejecters—bad quality perception of store brands matched by minimal spending

The largest segment (Low-Spend Potentials) captured 27.5% of all-outlet UPC-coded dollars, while the smallest segment (Upscale Premium) drove just 13.2% of dollars. In general, downscale shoppers purchased store brands as a matter of necessity versus choice. The same holds true for mainstream households, which tended to be older, male, retired and focused on stretching their budgets.

Path to success
The analysis confirmed what many suspected: store brands are fast becoming a viable retail strategy and potential point of meaningful differentiation in the marketplace. There are two pathways for retailers to grow store brand sales: one is to follow the path of Aldi and Save A Lot who limit their selection to mostly store brands, the other is to embark on Best in Class practices to building a strong brand portfolio.

Setting aside hard discounters, there are already a handful of recognized retailers where UPC-coded store brand sales account for almost 30% of dollar sales.

Five proven practices
What does it take to enter the fray and create a powerful store brand? There are five best practices employed by store brand leaders:

• Manage your portfolio. Determine where the store brand opportunity lies—in the value or opening price point tier; national brand equivalent tier; or premium and specialty tier—by evaluating shopper demographics and purchase patterns. Tier preferences differ by income, channel and geography. Don’t de-list high-penetration, high-frequency or strong niche brands that might divert shoppers to retailers who do carry them.
• Manage your brand equity. Brand share is directly related to brand equity. To build one is to build both. Premium tier and national brand equivalent products do the best job of nurturing brand equity by meeting or exceeding customer expectations.
• Market your brands vigorously. The most successful store brands also enjoy the most prominent positions on store web sites along with highly visible ad blocks in store circulars, across in-store marketing vehicles and other media.
• Get the pricing gap right. Avoid arbitrary rules like “all store brands will be offered at x% below national brands”. To do so leaves money on the table. Be aware that brand price elasticities vary by category and brand. Retailers should make sure that price gaps don’t get too large.
• Employ consumer packaged goods (CPG) best practices. Imitation is both the highest form of flattery and good business. Consider hiring classically-trained CPG marketers and follow their process, from leveraging consumer research to testing product concepts and packaging. Flank national brands with store offerings that fill gaps and respond to unmet consumer needs. Establish performance benchmarks and monitor the numbers.

Manufacturer’s respond
Manufacturers need to innovate in order to differentiate. Build a point of difference in the hearts and minds of consumers and look to low-marketed categories where the shift to store brands is typically the strongest. “Me-too” products will lose out. Some best practices include:

• Work with retailers to combine name brands and store brands in joint promotions and displays.
• Test offering unique items to retailers that only they carry aligned to their shopper.
• Understand the role of the category leader for each retailer and how important store brands are to that mix.
• Provide top quality analytics—an area where retailers are growing in sophistication.

Universal values
Getting a good value is a universal consumer value, with more than three-quarters of European shoppers in France, Italy, Great Britain, Span and Germany becoming increasingly sensitive to food prices. Nearly half or more of respondents to a Nielsen Consumer Confidence survey in Europe said they would switch to a cheaper grocery brand to save money.

In the big five European countries, shoppers stated they would actively look for promotions, purchase fewer indulgences such as alcohol, biscuits/cookies and chocolate, and gravitate toward store brand products where the delivered value was seen as equal to or exceeding the national brand. With the exception of booming China, more than 50% of Asian shoppers declared their food price sensitivity. This was particularly true for South Korean consumers who have been strongly affected by the global financial crisis.

Penny-pinching strategies proposed by Asians included buying just the essential products needed to stock the cupboard, saving soft drinks, chocolate and cookies as special occasion treats. Only one-third of Asian shoppers said they would switch to less expensive grocery brands, because they believe branded products are better for their family and represent a better value for the money.

Across geographies, channels and income brackets, the quality perception of store brands is a primary indicator of the consumer’s propensity to buy store brands. A store brand that delivers on its quality and value promise, fulfills the universal consumer financial need to save money as well as the universal consumer psychological need to nurture their family. Today’s store brands have started to deliver on both counts.

By: Jess D. Aguirre, Jr., Senior Vice President, Research, Hallmark Channels, and Howard M. Shimmel, Senior Vice President, Consumer Insights, The Nielsen Company

SUMMARY: What do beer, gum, candy, snacks, and fragrances have in common? All are categories that under-spend on media against a Boomer demographic that accounts for the bulk of consumer packaged goods sales.

It’s a question for the ages. Why aren’t TV advertisers targeting Baby Boomers, a demographic with proven clout at the cash register and demand to spare? Even as Boomers expect to live and work longer, extending their consumer life cycle. Even as Boomer incomes continue their upward spiral. Even as Boomer kids leave the nest and leave Mom and Dad with more disposable income, media planners shun the age cohort and exclude it from advertisers’ national TV ad schedules.

Old school view
Age and sex demographic criteria have constituted key parameters guiding TV advertising buys since Nielsen began measuring demographic audiences in the 1970s. Advertisers following a classical marketing model have focused on two main demographics: adults ages 18-49 and 25-54, zeroing in on women for household products and skewing younger for soft drinks, movies and apparel.

These targets were established “back in the day”, when the two age cohorts (today’s Boomers and Greatest Generation) controlled the majority of product spending. They reflect the commonly-held assumption that consumers establish brand loyalty in their first apartment or house after college and retain those brand loyalties throughout their adult lives. A recent Nielsen study commissioned by the Hallmark Channel proved these beliefs wrong on all counts.

Boomer spending habits
The Nielsen/Hallmark study updated information on Boomer spending power and compared brand loyalty measures by product across Boomers and younger demographics. Boomer households represented more than 50% of sales in 98 of the 122 product categories analyzed, accounting for almost $200 billion in total sales in those categories.

Yet, despite the fact that the average Boomer share of those categories was 53%, some advertisers do not target Boomers with their media strategy, instead concentrating dollars on younger consumers with the intent of wooing loyal lifetime customers. A sampling of categories pursuing this strategy can be found in above chart.

Brand basics
Moving from the category view to the brand level, Nielsen measured more than 6,000 individual brands with U.S. household penetration greater than 1%. For two-thirds of those brands, Boomer shoppers account for more than their fare share (55%) of sales purchase for these brands, totaling sales in excess of $100 billion. On a share of sales basis, Boomer households index high, spending 3% more than their share of the population.

Looking at loyalty
Brand loyalty is assessed by measuring the percent of an individual household’s category purchases dedicated to a specific brand. For example, if Household A buys $10 of Heinz ketchup and $20 of total ketchup, the household is 50% loyal to Heinz.

Marketers make a reasoned choice when developing media targets—whether to speak to current, loyal users or to focus on potential brand switchers. The Nielsen/Hallmark analysis revealed that there was no clear distinction between Boomer households and younger households in terms of brand loyalty. In fact, Boomer households may actually be less brand loyal.

Fully 54% of total dollars were spent on brands where there was no difference in brand loyalty across age cohorts. In 27% of the cases, Boomers exhibited less brand loyalty than their younger counterparts. Only 20% of total dollars went to brands where Boomer loyalty was higher than younger demographics.

These findings are consistent with two prior brand loyalty studies: AARP research that found consumers aged 45+ are less brand loyal in categories such as home stereo systems, computers, cell phones and athletic footwear, and a Yankelovich study determined that fewer consumers aged 50+ felt it was risky to buy an unfamiliar brand than did shoppers ages 16-34.

Media implications
For media planners and buyers, step one is understanding the importance of Boomers in terms of spending power. Step two is evaluating how well the current media strategy delivers against Boomers—then making necessary changes.

National TV media tends to segregate itself based on the median age of the audience. Specific broadcast and cable networks that skew younger, include Fox, CW, Comedy Central and VH1. Conversely, other broadcast and cable networks cater to a more mainstream audience, such as ABC, CBS, TBS, TNT and Hallmark. Advertisers who fail to recognize the economic value of Boomers, and continue to allocate media dollars to younger audiences, will fail to deliver Boomers and capitalize on their spending power today.

A case in point
Here’s how the age blinkers could impact a beverage and a candy brand. In the case of a major cola brand, Boomer households account for 60% of product sales, but Boomers receive only 30% of the national TV media impressions. At a major candy manufacturer, a nearly identical situation exists—a media strategy targeting younger consumers delivers half the appropriate Boomer share of impressions, based on Boomer households share of product sales.

Advertisers need to take a fresh look at their assumptions and brand sales and adjust media schedules to effectively reach key audiences. One method for calibrating the mix is to deploy the Nielsen Brand Target Audience databases, which cover categories like consumer packaged goods and pharmaceuticals, allowing companies like Hallmark to work with an advertiser in developing cross-platform packages that reach high value marketing targets.

2008: Staying In Is The New Going Out
Americans are spending more time in front of their computers and televisions. The reach and frequency of TV, Internet, and time shifted TV use increased notably in 2008, as consumers on tight budgets opted to save money by staying home. 

2008: Economizing Strategies Go Digital
In 2008, 20% of consumer discussions online referenced strategies for managing grocery budgets.  Visits to price comparison websites were also up significatnly this year. 

2008: Private Label Reigns Supreme 
As the economy worsened, consumers continued to shift dollar and unit spending to private label products.  The result: private label shares hit all time highs in both units and dollars at year’s end.  Private label dollar sales averaged about 10% growth in the five four-week periods near the end of the year.  Meanwhile, unit sales growth accelerated, averaging 4% to 5% growth.  In comparison, branded products saw 3% average dollar sales growth and 3% unit sales decline. 

2008: Value Trumps Variety, Convenience
“Value” categories and brands saw greater growth in 2008, compared to the previous year:
- Spam: dollar sales up 14% vs. year ago 
- Ramen Noodles: dollar sales up 30% vs. year ago
- Dry Pasta: dollar sales up 25% vs. year ago
- Bulk Rice: dollar sales up 38% vs. year ago
- Margarine: dollar sales up 21% vs. year ago
- Canned Vegetables: dollar sales up 9% vs. year ago
- Frozen Vegetables: dollar sales up 7% vs. year ago

2009: Retail Stores Close, Consolidate
“A rising tide raises all boats” — the opposite exposes weaker businesses.  The grocery channel may be “recession resistant,” but no channel is “recession proof.”  In 2009, expect further consolidation in retail outlet ownership, as flawed businesses go to the wall or are selectively gobbled up at low prices by “retail winners” looking to expand their presence in key neighborhoods and markets.

2009: Premium Brands Lose Ground; Genetic Modification Gains New Acceptance
In 2009, consumers will become more discerning and discriminating, and the premium charged for more expensive lines will be questioned more frequently.  This will retard the growth of some organic and fair trade products, and maybe even increase acceptance of genetically modified products. 

2009: Food Waste Reduction Is A New Priority
With food waste running at 30% in the U.K. and 40% in India, consumers and manufacturers will make greater efforts to reduce avoidable losses in 2009.  Look for growth of the frozen food category, and smaller portions in food service and single-serve ready meals.

2008 was a newsworthy — albeit, topsy-turvy — year for marketers and researchers. Importantly, social media evolved from experimental sideline to a mainstream attraction. Twitter saw huge growth rates, Barack Obama rewrote the rules of digital marketing, and user-engagement, and “service is marketing” Zappos.com re-wrote new rules for building brands and rewiring e-commerce. Facebook trended upward, MySpace held steady, and reputation-broker Wikipedia continued marching to the top of Google search results.

Brands like Tide used social media to squeeze extra value out of Super Bowl ads, and Comcast (full disclosure: a Nielsen client) parlayed service scorn into a fundamentally different service/engagement model (still a work in progress).

Fortified by corporate blogs and Twittter handles, dozens of other companies launched “social media” teams, while CEOs like Howard Schultz used CGM (e.g. MyStarbucksIdea.com) as the centerpiece of its turnaround strategy.

Retailers like Wal-Mart turbocharged their web platforms with user-reviews – many of which ironically challenged “green claims” of  featured products, while Facebook introduced “add water and stir” fan-sites that were often as inviting to activists as to brand loyalists.

Industry groups like the IAB created social media committees, the ARF put unstructured “listening” at the top of the 2008-09 agenda, and for the first time WOMMA managed to nab the likes of IBM, Kraft, Unilever, Intuit, Hershey’s, and other big fish at its annual conference — a “coming of age” for word-of-mouth marketing.

On a personal level, I somehow managed to crank out a book that I’m quite proud of, “Satisfied Customers Tell Three Friends, Angry Customers Tell 3000″ (Doubleday), and I certainly hope it continues to inspire constructive conversation on issues and developments similar to the ones I outline below.

Marketing Campaigns that Inspired
- Obama Web Strategy – Empower everybody, nurture advocacy; even small acts can grow into big acts
- Apple Genius Bar – Service is the new marketing
- MyStarbucksIdeas.com – Maybe fans get product development better than the brand.
- NBCOlympics.com – creating a cross-platform “ecosystem”
- New York Times “Comments” – Reader engagement creates new source of value
- Zappos Ads in Airport Security Boxes – Hey, if the shoe fits!
- P&G Mommy Blogger Event – Power Moms matter…as much, perhaps, as traditional media

Best Thinking on CGM/Social Media
- Scott Cook “User Contribution Systems” (Harvard Business Review, Fall 2008)
- New York Times – “Brave New World of Digital Intimacy” (9/5/2008)
- Peter Kim’s Social Media Marketing List
- Business Week cover story, by Jena MacGregor – “Consumer Vigilantes” (Spring 2008)

Digital Communities that Raised the Bar
- Intuit Community
- Dell Computer
- Nike + Social Network
- BlackBerry Owners Lounge
- MTV Community
- WebMD
- Bank of America’s Small Banking Site

Bloggers and Influencers Who Made a Mark in 2008
- Arriana Huffington & Huffington Post Team
- Forrester’s Jeremy Owyang
- Dooce.com (Top Mom Blog)
- Gaurav Mishra (Mumbai commentary)
- Xeni Jardin (Boing Boing)
- Pete Cashmore (Mashable)
- B.L. Ochman (Blog + Twitter)
- Twitter Social Media Commentator Chris Brogan
- Comcast’s Frank Eliason (via Twitter)
- Michael Arlington (Tech Crunch)
- Ford’s Scott Monty (via Twitter)
- Power Mom Jessica Gottleib
- Steve Rubel (consistently on the mark…for a very long time)

Viral Videos that Stimulated Our Thinking
- Tina Fey on SNL – The power of both WOM and cross-platform promotion
- Yes We Can! (Obama) – Original music + celebrities = viral video
- Vote Different (Clinton) – What’s old is new again
- Wassup 2008 – Update of a classic
- Tide Stain Super Bowl – What happens before and after the game is crucial
- ”You.S.A 2008” – customized viral videos

Blogs that Inspired
- Patagonia Blog -  200% authentic, reflects the cause-driven soul of the company
- Southwest Airlines – Better than free peanuts
- Garmin Blog - GPS navigation in action
- GM – Unbeatable Google juice
- Marriott’s CEO Blog – The power of executive personality
- Delta – Friendlier face to an industry with ‘issues’

Key Lessons in Defensive Branding
- Facebook “Fan” Sites: Activists also like to “express” themselves
- MotrinMoms – Power moms matter, and “social media” twitterers are a force to be reckoned with
- All Brands – When times are tight, be careful with “luxury” or “premium” messaging…even to the rich
- Whole Foods – The digital trail is difficult to erase when mistakes are made (or changed)
- Kobe Bryant/Nike – If forced to fake it, does it really pay out?

Products that Stole the 2008 Conversation
- YouTube in your pocket: Flip Camera, Kodak Zi6
- So long keyboard, hello touch!: T-Mobile/Google G1, Blackberry Storm, HP’s TouchsmartPC
- Still shaking things up: iPhone, Wii

2008’s Blazing Innovation Trail
- Ning – Create your own social network…really!
- Twitter Grader – Twitter Grader measures the power of a Twitter profile
- Twinfluence – Another Twitter influence tool
- Twitter Search – Search Twitter for content
- Twemes – Find hashtags for topics
- Tweetbeep – Monitor Twitter by keyword
- Friendfeed – Discover and discuss interesting stuff that your friends find on the Web
- TagCrowd – Create your own tag cloud from any text to visualize word frequency
- Zuula – A convenient way to get search results from all the top search engines
- One Riot – A social search engine that finds the pulse of the Web
- Search Engine Site Validation Service – Validate the code on your site for search engines
- Google Keyword Tool – Use Google to find relevant keywords: Keywords = Branding
- Yammer – Twitter for enterprise
- Hulu – NBC and News Corp’s video site
- GasBuddy – Cheap gas anyone?
- Pandora – Free music for everyone

Must Read Business Books
- The Ownership Quotient (HBS Jim Heskett, Earl Sasser)
- Groundswell (Li, Bernoff)
- Radically Transparent: Monitoring and Managing Reputations Online
- Open Brand (K. Mooney)
- Marketing to the Social Web
- DigiMarketing
- Speed of Trust (Stephen Covey)
- Personality Not Included (Rohit Bhargava)
- Tipping Point (Yes, still relevant)
- Meatball Sundae (Seth Godin)

Activists & Activist Sites Who Retained (or Grew) Their Bite
- The Consumerist
- PETA
- Save the Internet Coalition
- EFF
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- The Bobosphere

Read Pete Blackshaw’s predictions for new media and marketing developments in 2009 in the December installment of his regular Ad Age column.

1. Consumers Go On Social Media “Diets”
“[In 2008] we impulsively adopted everything from hastily assembled Facebook friends and Twitter followers to groups, apps and widgets, yet rarely revisited them.  In 2009, less may well become the new more,” Blackshaw notes.

2. Marketers Return To Media Basics
“TV will remain a focus because viewership in aggregate is actually going up, so continuing to understand how social media extends and enhances that experience (and sources content in reverse) will be mission critical,” Blackshaw writes.

3. Consumer Intimacy Returns
“2009 will also be the year we rediscover the appeal of living, breathing connections. Our industry research will find that real conversations with consumers, empathetically executed, can yield returns that trump the most sophisticated precision targeting,” Blackshaw notes.

4. Diversity Goes Mainstream
“Diversity will make a notable shift in marketing circles from a peripheral ‘nice to have’ to a ‘must have’ — and there will be a deeper recognition that getting this right is inseparable from competitive advantage.  Expect to see Hispanic marketing notch up to new levels and more nuanced discussion of other minority segments,” Blackshaw writes.

5. Conferences Get Downsized
“In 2009, it will be harder to justify attending industry conferences.  Budget pressure will depress participation and marketers will increasingly get comparable returns from online-enabled events, webinars, on-demand podcasting and iPhone downloads,” Blackshaw notes.

Read the rest of Pete Blackshaw’s 2009 media and marketing predictions in the December installment of his regular Ad Age column.