Nielsen conducted a recession analysis that replicated the challenges a marketer might face in today’s economic climate.  Using the media schedule for a movie studio as an example, Nielsen evaluated three different approaches – the “hatchet” cut, the “precision” cut and the “remix” cut – to re-configure a media schedule to fit budget constraints.  In the study, we found that a marketer was successful in alleviating nearly 80 percent of potential Gross Rating Point loss due to a reduced budget, but came within 1 percent of the reach of the original schedule – clearly a good lesson for any marketer, regardless of industry.

A full description of the analysis appears in the current issue of Consumer Insight.

1. Consumers Go On Social Media “Diets”
“[In 2008] we impulsively adopted everything from hastily assembled Facebook friends and Twitter followers to groups, apps and widgets, yet rarely revisited them.  In 2009, less may well become the new more,” Blackshaw notes.

2. Marketers Return To Media Basics
“TV will remain a focus because viewership in aggregate is actually going up, so continuing to understand how social media extends and enhances that experience (and sources content in reverse) will be mission critical,” Blackshaw writes.

3. Consumer Intimacy Returns
“2009 will also be the year we rediscover the appeal of living, breathing connections. Our industry research will find that real conversations with consumers, empathetically executed, can yield returns that trump the most sophisticated precision targeting,” Blackshaw notes.

4. Diversity Goes Mainstream
“Diversity will make a notable shift in marketing circles from a peripheral ‘nice to have’ to a ‘must have’ — and there will be a deeper recognition that getting this right is inseparable from competitive advantage.  Expect to see Hispanic marketing notch up to new levels and more nuanced discussion of other minority segments,” Blackshaw writes.

5. Conferences Get Downsized
“In 2009, it will be harder to justify attending industry conferences.  Budget pressure will depress participation and marketers will increasingly get comparable returns from online-enabled events, webinars, on-demand podcasting and iPhone downloads,” Blackshaw notes.

Read the rest of Pete Blackshaw’s 2009 media and marketing predictions in the December installment of his regular Ad Age column.