The re-designed Forester boosted sales for Subaru, while Hyundai and Kia launched new models appealing to younger drivers.  Existing models, such as the Sorento and Sedona posted strong sales growth (69% and 48%, respectively).  And Lincoln was the only U.S. brand to outperform the market (although sales remained in negative territory on a year-to-year basis).   Foreign automakers benefitted disproportionately from escalating gas prices because consumer perception that their vehicles, especially hybrids and diesel models, are more fuel-efficient.  Hybrids remain an exciting but emerging segment, as consumers take their time investigating the genre.  Meanwhile, consumer interest in the basic economy vehicle was solid when gas prices were high, but dropped sharply once gas prices dropped.

Read more about the positive developments in the auto industry in 2008, as well as consumer behavior with respect to shopping for and buying vehicles in the July edition of Consumer Insight

One might assume that the unemployment rate at a state level would show a strong negative correlation to the likelihood to purchase a vehicle in the next six months, but this doesn’t appear to be the case. Michigan had the highest unemployment rate at 11.6% in January 2009; however, these residents are slightly over-indexing for the likeliness to purchase a vehicle in the next six months. It’s very interesting that Mississippi is the most likely state to purchase a vehicle and Idaho is the least likely, since both states fall in the middle of the heap for unemployment.

January 2009 Unemployment Rate Vs. Likelihood To Purchase A Vehicle

Solely looking at shopping intention by state is too high of a level to glean any actionable insight. However, coupling intention with current vehicle ownership allows for smarter inventory planning and target marketing within each state. Typically, we would be a bit more aggressive and aim to conquest more sales, but in the current economic condition we need to be more cognizant of advertising expenditures and ensure a high ROI.

In 2009 it will be imperative that automakers focus on the total customer experience of existing owners and consider developing loyalty programs. It is much easier and cheaper to retain an owner than it is to make a conquest from a competing brand. Nielsen @Plan data is indicating that Oklahoma residents are the second most likely to purchase a vehicle in the next six months and are also over-indexing on owning a Kia vehicle and Compact Sedans/Coupes. There appears to be an opportunity for Kia to gain additional market share within Oklahoma especially with the Optima and Spectra. Lincoln also has an opportunity in Mississippi with an ownership index of 286, while Chrysler may want to reduce their ad spend in this state and shift focus to areas that have a higher concentration of Chrysler owners such as Iowa, Kentucky and Michigan.