Attendees at Linkontro met to discuss how to focus on innovation against a backdrop of low consumer confidence, ongoing political instability and expansive bureaucracy.

With more than 600 of Italy’s leading executives in the retail, manufacturing and media industries gathered for the event in Sardinia, off the coast of mainland Italy, speakers wasted no time in identifying points of concern that may lead to opportunity.

• Nielsen Country Manager, Roberto Pedretti, opened the event by reminding attendees that the traditional neighborhoods they had served for centuries were forever changed by the digital habits of young consumers. Pedretti painted a picture of media habits of a typical Italian 18-year-old and urged manufacturers and retailers to immerse themselves in the lives of the modern consumer. He encouraged brands to focus on delivering authentic messages and to become a natural part of the modern consumer’s day.
• During a panel session examining where new development should begin, Franco Pugliese, General Manager of Conad, one of the largest supermarket chains in Italy, said Italy sometimes appeared to lack the confidence it needed to drive change.
• Attendees heard from the panelists that Italy appeared to have lost its place in the world and that the primary commercial mission of Italy had been lost. They agreed that for Europe to recover from tough times, it was also important for Italy to win.
• Giuseppe Lavazza, Vice President of Lavazza, said Italians were good at entrepeneurship and innovation but had also gotten good at “creating obstacles” in the regulatory world. He cited labor, tax, health and safety laws as examples.

For faster change, the panel urged a move away from the red tape plaguing new and established businesses. They warned that investors would avoid Italy in favor of countries with more favorable environments for growth.

Academic Michele Boldrin, of Washington University in St. Louis, said as an Italian looking in on his home country from the United States, he saw “crazy public debt” and a labor market riddled with high costs. Boldrin said it was imperative for Italy to create comparative advantages over other countries in Western Europe. He also cited an ongoing brain drain because talented young people found it difficult to penetrate the hierarchy of businesses in Italy.

Facebook Country Manager, Luca Colombo pointed to opportunity with digitally active Italians. In a session that included Google and the Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), attendees heard that the digital economy (in terms of ad sales) was only 2 percent of Italy’s GDP, leaving significant room for growth, particularly in the largely nascent area of online transactions.

Other sessions during the three days pointed to foreign retailers who had penetrated the Italian market in their stalwart fashion segment. Zara and The Gap are now common sights in Italian cities, a trend that came about with marketing campaigns that drove trust amongst Italian consumers, attendees heard.

On the third day of sessions, Nielsen’s European President, Christophe Cambournac, urged attendees to listen and act upon the “need states” of consumers or there was a danger they would lose them.

Linkontro was held from May 26 to 28. The event has been held for almost 30 years.

Nuclear power continues to be a controversial topic in Italy, but the latest news in Japan is fueling a growing online debate. Nielsen analyzed online discussions around sources of energy and, in particular around nuclear power before and after March 11, the day of the Japan earthquake.

In the first three months of the year through March 10, online messages about power sources averaged 800 posts per day. On March 11, conversations on nuclear energy spiked 500 percent and kept growing in the following days reaching a peak of 4,000 discussions on March 15 (+2,200 percent versus March 10)

After the tsunami hit Japan, 61 percent of discussions on all energy sources concentrated on nuclear power. Despite the upcoming referendum, prior to March 10, nuclear power represented only 18 percent of messages.

The earthquake and Fukushima emergency unleashed an impressive online debate between those who are in favor and those who are against nuclear power. But even with the increased volume of messages, the pro/con ratio did not change between the two parties: the number of messages with a positive attitude towards nuclear power still represented just one-quarter of those who are against it even though the number of neutral parties was reduced 13 percentage points post-tsunami.

Post tsunami, online discussion for Italians shifted from ecological and economic concerns and concentrated more on the safety of nuclear power and the risks connected with radioactivity leaks. The direct effect of Fukushima raised Italians’ fears on the two most pressing topics: Is nuclear power safe? What are the risks?

New findings from The Multichannel Survey, a four-year running joint project by Nielsen, Connexia and the Milan Polytechnic School of Management, show that more and more Italian consumers have a greater involvement in the purchasing process by using various channels and sources of information to support the purchase and post sales service – an increasingly necessary condition in the current climate of economic uncertainty and proliferated offerings.

Personal Interaction
Discussing multi-channel consumers in generic terms is no longer sufficient. In order to dig more deeply into buying behaviors, the Multichannel Survey grouped consumers into distinct segments to reveal a more accurate picture. An analysis of these segments from 2007 to 2010 revealed interesting migration trends. While the “Reloaded” and “Open Minded” clusters increased by 4.4 million people and 2.7 million, respectively, the “Indifferent” (-3 million), “Excluded” (-2.7 million) and “Engaged Traditional” (-0.7 million) segments all declined.

• Excluded (14% of population): Loyal to brands and retailers and mostly buy products they already know. Traditional family values are important. Television plays a huge role in their daily lives. They worry about the future and have little predisposition toward new experiences.
• Indifferent (20% of population): Detached from the purchase process as well as from other aspects of day-to-day life, these consumers are largely sedentary, with little interest in leisure time. Lacking confidence with technology, they attribute little importance to the culture as a factor for affirmation. They are weakly attracted to the new experiences.
• Traditional but Engaged (22% of population): The “Italian average”, they are social and interact with both companies and other consumers (word-of-mouth) in the purchase process, but engage primarily through traditional channels as they are not adept with new technologies.
• Open Minded (25% of population): Strongly open to innovation, they know the new technologies, but are prevalently individualistic and self-sufficient. Relaxed and unworried about the future, they are attracted by new things, but remain loyal to certain brands.
• Reloaded (19% of population): Powerfully attracted by the new, they connect with companies and other consumers through a multiplicity of channels. Highly influential, they tend to trigger viral phenomena through the Internet. They have little brand loyalty and show a strong propensity for private labels. Reloaded customers have a positive outlook on life and find advertising entertaining, but they are critical of television.

Involved and Engaged
The principle distinguishing feature of the Reloaded consumer is the degree of involvement in the purchasing process and the propensity to approach the company personally, either to suggest improvements to the offering or to become actively engaged in value creation processes like product development, marketing, communication and customer support.

Open-minded consumers, meanwhile, are multi-channel with respect to the number of devices they own and their use of media, but their value profile is strongly focused on self-actualization and individualism – even in their rapport with retailers. For example, if dissatisfied, Open-minded consumers will not email the retailer or spark off a debate on a blog, forum or social network. Rather, they will call the company directly to try and solve the problem immediately. The behavior of the Reloaded customer is diametrically opposite. With their knowledge of the various channels and the peculiarities of each, they will tend to report the problem on every available channel, triggering the viral potential social networks.

Appealing Advertising
The study revealed a phenomenon that is partly unexpected: the rise in overall goodwill on the part of Italian consumers towards advertising in almost all media – in both traditional and more innovative channels. Particularly striking in absolute terms is the approval of initiatives at the point of sale (welcomed by 74% of Italians), a category that has topped the ranking for several years. The fastest growing approval ratings for communication and advertising go to social networks, whether for more specific and less invasive forms such as; company pages, profiles, groups etc., which scored a 24 percent approval (eight points higher than 2009), or the more conventional forms such as advertising banners, which scored 20 percent (increase of 5 points).

Among traditional media, there is a marked rise in approval of radio advertising (47 percent, +6 points vs. 2009), which is on par with the medium’s broad revitalization trend over the past several years and the importance of radio to advertising budgets. Additionally, the dynamics of radio allow listeners to use a multitude of devices such as television, the Internet and mobile phones to hear content.

Informed Purchasing
When it comes to purchasing decisions, the study revealed that the physical retail outlets continue to be important sources of information. While more and more people say they inform themselves before they go to the store, once inside, they still want to learn more or receive reassurance on their choice. For example, when purchasing consumer electronics 47 percent of Italian consumers already know about the products, but they want further information once in the store.

At the same time, the Internet continues to play an increasingly important role as a source of information to support purchases. Fully 84 percent of consumers with Internet access (31 million individuals) search for information online and then buy at the store – an increase of two percentage points vs. 2009 and a rise of eight points vs. 2007. Seventy-four percent compare prices of products/services before buying (+3 p.p. vs. 2009, +9 p.p. vs. 2007) and 37 percent of Italian consumers order online and pick up later at the retailer (+2 p.p. vs. 2009, +5 p.p. vs. 2007).

User-generated content on the Internet and dialogue between peers is rising in importance as a credible form of support to the purchasing process. One-in-three (32%) consumers who use the Internet (42% of the Reloaded cluster) consider the opinions of others on forums, blogs and social networks as important and relevant input when deciding whether to buy a product or service. Additionally, perceived barriers to Internet shopping continue to decline. Thirty-one percent of Italians (+9 p.p. vs. 2009) believe the web meets their personal needs, while 26 percent of Internet users say they check out products in the store before buying online (+5 p.p. vs. 2009).

What emerges is an interesting consumer landscape that marketers can no longer ignore or view as marginal by responding with purely tactical, short-term strategies to ensure a presence in the most popular new channels. Instead, the new multi-media consumer requires a revolution of business models where the customer is at the center and the new channels are seen as a strategic asset – not simply an afterthought.

Richard Reeves, Associate Director – Consumer Research, The Nielsen Company, Australia

Brand promotions are vital weapons in the sales and marketing arsenal, whether they are price discounts, multi-buys or additional quantity. In Australia, it is estimated that up to 30% of all grocery purchases are made on promotion and trends indicate that this could increase among key retailers. This proportion is similar to the U.K., where one-third of groceries are bought on promotion.

Nearby, our New Zealand kin are serious about promotions, with almost half (46%) of all grocery purchases being bought on promotion – reflecting the strong historical value focus of this market.

Just as there are differences between countries when it comes to promotions, there are even greater differences by category – this can range anywhere from 25% of volume being sold on promotion in one category, to a staggering 75% in another!

Clearly, for the manufacturer and retailer, promotions represent significant investment in time and money. So, the question is, how do these promotions affect the Australian shopper and what strategies or tactics can be employed to increase their effectiveness?

The Australian Shopper
Nielsen research has shown that the impact of the global financial crisis caused Australian consumers to re-assess how they spend and shop. We have witnessed a fundamental shift in shopper sentiment from the spendthrift, debt-driven early 2000s to a greater sense of caution and restraint post crisis. We have seen the rise of the “savvy shopper” who is happy to buy private label in one category and premium priced brands in another. We have also seen private label products being launched successfully in more and more categories. It would appear shoppers are becoming more willing to try and stick with these products where they perceive them to be just as good or just plain good enough.

Shoppers are increasingly using coupons and visiting more stores during their shopping trips as they search for the best value. This behavior has been observed in Australia with shoppers increasing their store repertoire. Furthermore, 30 per cent of Australian shoppers claim “they will still look for cheaper grocery brands even though the crisis is over” (Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey, June 2010).

Given the shoppers’ search for value, a promotional strategy looks to be an excellent response. However, relatively speaking the Australian shopper is less sensitive to promotions than shoppers in other countries.

We see in this chart that nearly half the shoppers claim promotions rarely change their brand choices, or they only buy promotions when they already like the brand.

It is a minority who claim to regularly buy different brands because of promotions. These results are congruent with the view that shoppers tend to have a limited number of brands that they buy regularly even if their total repertoire is quite broad.

Australian shoppers’ knowledge of the prices they pay is relatively weak  with nearly half unsure of what they actually pay.

Nielsen research has found that in some heavily promoted categories such as beer and bread, (among consumers who have some knowledge of price); shoppers believe the promoted price is the normal price – not the shelf-price. So, it appears that the number and frequency of promotions has fundamentally shifted shoppers’ price perceptions.

There is also strong evidence that shoppers are aware that another promotion ‘will be along in a minute’ and are willing to wait. This can be seen across the grocery channel and in other areas such as the petrol market with the “cheap Tuesday” phenomenon, the automotive equivalent of pantry stocking, i.e., filling the tank.

So what options are open to the manufacturer in the face of these almost contradictory behaviors of the shopper, that is, being value-focused, but uncertain of the shelf price? We all know sales increase when brands are promoted, but are these additional sales profitable and is the promotion actually supporting the brand?

Key Considerations for Promotions

1. Is the promotion a tactical response to competitor activity? For example, is it a response to a new entrant into the category; or is it to take advantage of above-the-line support? The strength of the brand’s equity and percentage of volume sold on promotion versus its shelf price need to be understood. Relatively speaking, stronger brands tend to sell more at full price than their weaker competitors.
2. Does the promotion increase the number of households buying the brand (household penetration) or does it increase the amount spent on the brand per household (Average Weight of Purchase – AWOP)? If it is the latter, the promotion may be rewarding loyal buyers and protecting share, but may undermine a brand’s price premium in the long term.

To understand if the additional sales are coming from new households (increased penetration) or increased AWOP, one needs to use actual purchase data from services such as Nielsen Homescan.

Nielsen has found in a number of categories that there are a proportion of shoppers who only buy on promotion. We have seen this group to be as high as 60% in some categories. While shoppers are loyal to specific brands, when their preferred brand is not on promotion it’s likely a competitive brand they know and may be partial to is. The role of the preferred brand in this situation is to ensure the competitor is only considered and not purchased.

This presents a dilemma for the brand. Above-the-line support may be needed to help reinforce the brand and its unique position, but if funds are diverted from in-store promotional support, it will lose significant share. Innovation within the category may be the only way to break the promotional cycle.

Additional Considerations

• How does the brand repertoire change when on and off promotion?
• What is the depth of the price cut, and how deep does it need to be to be effective?
• Is it better to have more frequent promotions with smaller price reductions or the opposite?
• Is the promotion reflective of historical practices? For example, if the brand has always had a promotion at Easter. Is this really the best time for the promotion?
• Is the promotion communicating the right message about the brand?
• And finally, will the promotion generate additional profit, as well as generating additional volume?

We know shoppers are looking for value, or at least value among their preferred brands, so communicating the promotion and using the best triggers is vital to maximize its impact. Therefore, are gondola ends and shelf labels enough to drive awareness of the promotion; or is it worth considering additional communication channels?

Given the importance of promotions, it is vital to treat them with the respect they deserve, as their correct use can drive the brand and profitability. Conversely, ill-considered promotions can weaken a brand and undermine a company’s bottom line. So, the question remains: Can you identify what purpose your promotion is serving?

Several Western Europe economies, namely Germany, United Kingdom and France, reported moderate growth in Q1 with consumer spending between 1% and 4%. However, the escalating European debt crisis that has damped confidence in Q2 may impact future growth. In North America, the contrast between increasingly optimistic Canada and cautiously restrained U.S. is being reflected in dollar sales. Across both the U.S. and Canada consumers are cutting back on shopping trips, seeking value and establishing a balance of branded and store brand purchasing.

Advertising spending also improved in Q1 as 25 of the 31 countries reported in Nielsen’s Global Ad Spend Report experienced gains of greater than or equal to 5%. Two globally significant events – Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup – were driving forces behind this trend. Economically struggling countries Japan, Ireland and Spain were the only countries with flat to declining ad spending in Q1.

What to Watch
In the second half of 2010, against the backdrop of a shaky global economy, consumers in emerging markets will remain more willing to spend on discretionary categories such as apparel, vacation and out-of-home entertainment. In the developed economies where a largely jobless recovery is taking place, the consumer remains very reticent as they are closely monitoring their spending. Value remains the mantra and the new normal is characterized by restraint.

Download the Q2 2010 Nielsen Economic Current.

“While the global economy is in better shape than it was nine months ago, (+7 index points compared to Q3 2009), the ongoing European debt crisis is a major setback to the global economic recovery anticipated this year,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, Chief Economist at The Cambridge Group, a part of The Nielsen Company. “U.S. consumers closely watched unemployment numbers, while Europeans witnessed the government implement new and in some cases, severe fiscal austerity measures amid stagnant job markets and a weakening Euro. Consumers in Western developed economies realized that the road to full economic recovery is going to take a bit longer than expected. In the ongoing weak-to-moderate growth environment, there is some risk for businesses of deflationary pressure, requiring close attention to improving pricing power through more effective deployment of media, innovation and channel marketing efforts.”

“In the U.S., consumers are still focused on repairing their household balance sheets with 45 percent allotting any remaining income (once they have covered their essential living expenses) to savings and paying off debt (37 percent),” said James Russo, Vice President, Global Consumer Insights at The Nielsen Company. “Until the labor market shows continuous improvement, consumer spending will not be sustainable.”

Nielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Index tracks consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among approximately 27,000 Internet users in 48 countries. In the latest round of the survey conducted between May 10 and May 26, 2010, consumer confidence fell in nine out of 24 European markets. The only non-European markets to post quarter-on-quarter declines were Australia, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, Taiwan, Brazil and Egypt.

Disparity Widens Between Developing and Emerging Markets
India (129 index points), Indonesia and Vietnam (both 119 index points) were the most optimistic nations in Q2, while consumer confidence in Spain plummeted by 10 index points to its lowest level on record at 69 index points from 79 in Q1 of this year.

“In Asia, major economies are experiencing growth headwinds in the form of higher inflation and asset price declines. While overall growth in China, India and elsewhere in Asia will still be strong, some slowdown can be expected as governments and central banks tighten monetary and fiscal policy. Businesses therefore need to exercise more prudence in their resource allocation within Asia,” said Dr. Bala.

Globally, 58 percent of people—the same number as in the previous quarter—said they are still in recession with a disparity in recovery sentiment widening between developed and emerging markets. Thirty-nine percent of Asia Pacific consumers and 51 percent of Latin Americans said they are still in recession compared to 84 percent of North Americans and 76 percent of Europeans. Among those in recession, one in five (21 percent) global consumers thinks the recession will last another year. However, this number increases among North Americans where nearly one in four (24 percent) believes the recession will linger for more than 12 months.

“For most of 2010, the U.S. has seen improvement in the job and housing markets supporting the increases in U.S. consumer confidence, but consumers are still very much focused on value and they continue to reduce their overall shopping trips,” said Todd Hale, Senior Vice President, Consumer & Shopper Insights, The Nielsen Company. “Retailers and manufacturers have responded with heightened promotional support and lower prices providing consumers with great deals. However, even with enhanced prices, consumer-packaged goods dollar and unit sales have declined in the latest three consecutive 4-week periods versus year ago.”

Regionally, consumer confidence steadily climbed three index points in Latin America, two index points in Asia Pacific and North America and one index point in Europe. Latin America topped regional consumer confidence levels at 102 index points, followed by Asia Pacific (101 index points), and Middle East, Africa, Pakistan (MEAP) with 89 index points. In North America, consumer confidence reached 88 index points, while Europe lagged behind as the least confident region at 79 index points.

European Debt Crisis Renews Uncertainty
While the pace of economic recovery accelerated in most Asian and Latin American markets, the spreading debt crisis in Europe resulted in consumer confidence reversing in most European markets. Consumer confidence fell in three out of the five biggest economies as European consumers came to grips with the extent of the debt crisis.

In Italy, consumer confidence retreated to its lowest level (71 index points) since Q1 2009 when it hit an all time low of 70 index points at the height of the global recession. “There is strong evidence of a W-shaped recovery for Italy as consumer confidence in Q2 reversed back into recessionary sentiment,” said Stefano Galli, Managing Director, Nielsen Italy. “High unemployment, economic stagnation and massive public spending cuts have caused consumers to further cut back on their discretionary spending and lifestyles. Budget-conscious Italians are continuing to turn to discounter shopping channels and private labels despite fast-moving consumer goods retailers and manufacturers intensifying promotions. We expect to see some signs of recovery starting from the second half of 2010.”

The economic situation in Spain is especially restrained, which is indicative of the 10 point index drop. With the highest unemployment in Europe (20 percent) and a reduction of government employees, Nielsen experts estimate the possibility of economic growth will move further out to 2012.

However, Germany—the region’s largest economy—posted a welcomed rebound with an increase of seven index points up to 81 from 74 index points in Q1, the highest increase in the region. In the second quarter, newly confident Germans began to open their wallets again and were among the world’s top 10 discretionary spenders on clothes and out-of-home entertainment. In fact, the German job market showed a rather robust upward trend and possible sign that consumers now believe that the worst has passed.

Struggling Baltic nations of Lithuania and Latvia both posted consumer confidence increases of six points each in Q2, although both remain among the most pessimistic nations in the world with low consumer confidence index scores of 52 and 56 respectively. “After two years of a deep economic recession in the Baltic countries, local financial institutions are forecasting a slow recovery at the end of 2010,” said Arturas Urbonavicius, Managing Director, Nielsen Baltics.

Brighter Asian and Latin American Prospects
Six out of the top 10 most optimistic nations in the second quarter came from Asia and all these markets posted consumer confidence increases quarter-on-quarter. Vietnam recorded the highest consumer confidence increase in Q2 soaring 18 index points to 119, while Singapore (which recorded the highest consumer confidence increase in Q1), posted another solid five index point gain from 107 in Q1 to 112 points in Q2.

“The enormous rise in optimism seen in the latest survey has taken ‘cautious’ out of Vietnam’s previous footing of ‘cautious optimism’,” said Darin Williams, Managing Director, Nielsen Vietnam “Vietnamese consumers are ready to spend, with new technology being the focus for many after they have paid for essential living expenses.”

Forty-seven percent of respondents in Vietnam stated they would spend excess cash on new technology—the highest percentage in Asia; 39 percent stated they would spend spare cash on new clothes—a huge jump from 23 percent in the last survey. In Q1, only 16 percent of Vietnamese stated they would invest their excess cash, this has increased to 31 percent in Q2.

“Financial product awareness and intent to use is also rising dramatically as banks and insurance companies have increased their advertising and Vietnamese have more spare cash on their hands,” Williams added.

“In Singapore, there is a significant drop in the percentage of people who think they are in a recession—just 17 percent in Q2 versus 28 percent in Q1,” said Joan Koh, Managing Director, Nielsen Singapore. “Almost one in two feels that now is a good time to buy things. After putting spare cash into savings, Singaporeans will spend on holidays, invest in shares of stocks/mutual funds, new clothes and pay off debts.”

Prospects also look brighter in the Philippines (113 index points), China (109 index points), and Columbia (105 index points), which all recorded consumer confidence highs in their respective markets. “After five quarters of continuous consumer confidence increases in China, the one point increase in Q2 represents steady growth coming from consumers in rural villages,” said Chris Morley, Managing Director, The Nielsen Company China.

Economic recovery and consumer confidence also accelerated in Mexico, which posted a consumer confidence increase of five index points compared to the first quarter of the year. “While positive shopping basket trends in Mexico and Colombia show a slow reactivation in consumption, the population is still concerned about economic and job prospects,” said Felipe Urdaneta, Managing Director, Nielsen Colombia.

Denmark (+5), Switzerland (+5), South Africa (+4) and the Netherlands (+3) also posted consumer confidence increases. For Denmark, the rise is a welcomed change for a country that has shown a steady decline, although the Danish market continues to be volatile and vulnerable. Switzerland’s own currency removes them from the Euro crisis and the Swiss are now ready to spend on postponed investments, apparel, travel and electronics.

Download Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index

During June – which accounted for the first three weeks of the tournament and the 10 days preceding it – the FIFA website proved to be most popular in Brazil (visited by 7.0% of Brazilians online, 2.8 million people) and in the U.K. (6.9% of people online, 2.7 million). Despite their tournament ending on the 25th June, Switzerland followed with 5.6% of Swiss people online (0.25 million people) visiting FIFA’s site, probably driven by the team’s shock opening round victory over eventual winners Spain.

The FIFA site offers versions in English, Spanish, German, French, Portuguese, Arabic and International Sign, but not Italian or Japanese. Despite this, 4.8% of Italians online (1.2 million people) still visited the site during June, although the lack of the local language did prove too much of an obstacle in Japan where only 0.1% of Japanese people online visited the site.

“The reach that the FIFA site achieved is impressive considering the kaleidoscopic variety of competing soccer, general sports and news sites available to consumers to follow such a large global event,” said Alex Burmaster, VP Global Communications at Nielsen’s online division. “The fact that one in 14 Brazilians online, for example, went to FIFA’s site in such a cluttered online environment illustrates a level of achievement.”

Not only did the FIFA website have the biggest footprint in Brazil but it also witnessed the most engaged audience – Brazilian visitors averaged almost 28 minutes on the site during June. In the U.S., although the site had a relatively low penetration among countries under Nielsen’s measurement (2.8% of Americans online visited the site) the U.S. actually provided the most total visitors to the site (5.4 million people) and, following Brazilians, the U.S. was the most engaged audience at almost 22 minutes per visitor for the month.

“The U.S. outperformed expectations in the World Cup and the FIFA site had a highly engaged core of US consumers who averaged more time on the site than fans in more traditionally soccer-mad nations such as England, Germany, Spain and France,” noted Burmaster. “The FIFA website provided a huge, and welcome, buffet of World Cup information from which U.S. soccer fans could satisfy their appetite over and above the relatively light offering in U.S. mainstream media compared to the near saturated coverage in more established soccer countries.”

In all the markets, except one, the FIFA website – when compared to the overall Internet audience in each country – was overly-weighted towards male visitors and struggled on attracting females.

The site had the most male-dominated audience in Brazil (71% male) and Australia (70%), while in Italy (67%) and Spain (66%) it also had at least-two thirds male visitors.

Germany was the only country in which the site had more female (54%) than male visitors (46%) and it was also the only market in which it over-performed – relative to the entire online audience – on attracting females and under-performed on attracting males.

In all the countries under measurement, the FIFA website was overly-weighted towards 18-49 year olds – particularly the 18-34 segment – while it struggled on attracting visitors under 18 and those over 50.

The greatest contrast between the make-up of FIFA’s audience compared to the overall Internet audience occurred in the U.S. market. In the U.S., the site over-performed most heavily on attracting 18-49 year olds and under-performed most on attracting people under 18 and those over 50.

In most of the countries, the majority of FIFA’s online audience was over 35 years old – particularly in France where almost 60% were over 35. Only in Spain (47%) and Brazil (34%) did the site have fewer visitors over 35 compared to those under 35.

“Across the globe, the FIFA site tends to be a destination for 18-49 year old males. The World Cup represents a unique opportunity for brands to connect with this highly engaged, mid-age-range male-dominated audience as reflected by sponsors who are in the business of producing beer, car tyres and engine oil,” said Burmaster. “Castrol, for example, scored a masterstroke in sponsoring the statistics section of the World Cup website. Consequently, they will have connected with large numbers of this often elusive audience across a wide range of markets at a time when they’re notoriously engaged – checking out soccer stats.”

Recovery in the West, Deterioration in the East

The first quarter of 2010 shows a positive trend in nominal value growth rates in most countries, which was driven primarily through volume growth improvement. France’s 2.4% year-on-year nominal value increase was the result of inflation while Portugal’s 4% volume growth and Spain’s 3% volume growth can both be attributed to a decline in deflation. Hungary and The Czech Republic were the poorest performers in the region, reporting nominal value declines of 3.5% and 3.2% respectively.

With a marginal reduction in shopping trips in the first quarter across Italy and Germany and flat overall spending per trip in the top five European countries (Germany, Italy, France, United Kingdom and Spain), shopping behavior is stable, but shows no significant improvement.

However, the economic turmoil reached Eastern Europe with a 12-month lag. In the latter part of 2009, these eastern markets severely deteriorated with volume decreases occurring in Latvia, Lithuania, Russia, Serbia and Ukraine. Albania, Bosnia and Macedonia remain the positive exceptions. With this sudden and delayed worsening in the east, a steep upturn will now be necessary to return to full recovery.

Europe Total View Q1 2010

Positive Growth Trends
Across Europe, nominal value growth continues to climb, increasing to 4.1% in the first quarter of 2010, a 1.2 percentage point gain over the fourth quarter 2009. The steady gain in volume coupled with latter unit value growth has kept Europe on an uphill trend with momentum continuing to build from the low point in the third quarter of 2009 when nominal value plunged to 2.6%.

The volume growth rate accelerated in most countries: Norway (7%), Finland (5%), Sweden (4%), Portugal (4%), Slovakia (4%), Austria (3%), Ireland (3%), Italy (3%), Spain (3%), Belgium (2%), Poland (2%), Switzerland (2%), Denmark (1%), France (1%), Germany (1%), Netherlands (1%) and U.K. (1%). Both volume and unit value declines were reported in Hungary, Czech Republic and Greece.

Country Analysis—A Divided Europe
The latest quarterly Europe Growth Reporter measuring volume and value sales in the fast moving consumer goods industry across markets in Europe is showing encouraging signs of improvement with all but four countries measured recording positive volume trends, which have helped drive increases in nominal value growths across the region. Unit value, however, shows an even split, with increases reported in eight countries and declines shown in eight. Four countries report flat unit value.

Turkey shows the most significant spike in unit value, increasing 21% since last year, which has unsurprisingly lead to volume decline (-1%). Russia has experienced double digit growth in unit value (+11.4%) once again and here volume declines remain significant (-7.2%), though they are slightly improved from Q4 2009 (-8.7%). The Nordic countries of Norway and Finland report the greatest increase in volume, rising 7% and 5% respectively, driven by deflation in Finland and low unit value growth in Norway. Sweden also reported low unit value growth although volume growth was lower here at +4%.

About the Nielsen European Growth Reporter
This report compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the fast moving consumer goods sector across Europe. It is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European market, and covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and convenience channels.

The report is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels, and this edition reports on week two of 2010 through to week 14 of 2010.

United States
Surprisingly, the U.S. squad wasn’t even the most buzzed-about national team. England, Argentina, Brazil, Serbia, and Spain were just some of the countries more closely correlated to the World Cup in conversations online. American consumers were also talking about various World Cup sweepstakes, whether they be corporate-sponsored (from Yahoo!, EA Sports, and McDonald’s) or privately-run pools where members pick the winners. There was also lots of Buzz around David Beckham, who’s not even playing in the World Cup due to an Achilles injury.

United Kingdom
Many World Cup discussions involved Fantasy football leagues as consumers took a more active role in the tournament as it gets closer. England fans have high expectations for their national team, as indicated by the frequency of terms like like “winning” and “champions” tied to the team. But fans also see a strong foe in Brazil, with similar terms grouped around the Latin American soccer power. England’s manager Fabio Capello was the most closely linked person to World Cup messages, followed by the injured Beckham.

South Africa
The World Cup’s host country has more than just soccer on its mind. Visitor and tourism messages drove a significant part of World Cup conversation, as well as ticket inquiries. Key FIFA and Local Organizing Committee (LOC) representatives Jerome Valcke and Danny Jordaan were often cited for addressing these issues. Overshadowing the matches were discussions about security concerns. South African messages also voiced disappointment of Shakira’s “Waka Waka” as the official World Cup song.

Australia
Even as Australia prepares for the this year’s tournament, it’s the fate of future World Cups that’s on the minds of many of the country’s online consumers. Messages about luring the 2018 or 2022 Cup to the Land of Oz – even speculation about potential venues – were prominent in online discussion. As the future of Australian soccer is discussed, many chose to wax nostalgic about the past, with dialogue about retired soccer great Mark Viduka.

Italy
In the weeks leading up to the World Cup, Italians buzzed about the “Will-he-or-won’t-he?” saga of golden boy Francesco Totti coming out of retirement to play for the national team (ultimately he was never called up). Fans of the defending world champs also talked about several members of the Azzurri national team – including head coach Marcello Lippi – and some of the team’s top competition, including Brazil, Argentina, and , perhaps surprisingly, Cameroon.

Germany
The Internet provided lively discussion forums for German soccer fans debating who should and should not have made the national team. Leading the debate was who should replace starting goalkeeper Rene Adler who suffered a rib injury that prevents him from playing with the team in South Africa. Speculation of Germany’s Group D competition was also very high, with tough matchups against Serbia, Ghana, and Australia in the tournament’s preliminary round.

Spain
Spanish fans have been preoccupied with comparisons to South American soccer power Argentina. Messages compare young Spanish phenom David Silva with Argentine superstar Messi and coach Vicente Del Bosque with soccer legend and current Argentina coach Maradona. A classic goalkeeper controversy was also brewing with some calling for Victor Valdes to start over Iker Casillas. Finally – after Sogecable, the leading pay TV company in Spain, sold the rights to Telecinco for some matches and to Cuatro for others – Spanish fans worried about which TV channel to watch the matches and who will be commentating.

The survey found that 34% of respondents believe Brazil will take home the Cup, 25 percentage points more than any other country. Argentina, England, Germany, and, yes, the United States, all tied for second with each earning the nod from nine percent of the sample. Only six percent believe that defending world champion Italy will repeat in 2010.

Who Will Win the World Cup?

NOTE: Based on 27,664 survey responses from 55 countries across the world

A regional breakout of the survey’s results revealed greater insight into how different parts of the world see the tournament unfolding:

• Four of the five global regions polled by Nielsen favored Brazil. Not surprisingly, 57% of  the Latin American region – including 86% of all Brazilians – were confident that the Green and Yellow will win it all.
• The one global region that didn’t pick Brazil? North America. Instead, 46% of the region – including 50% of U.S.-based respondents – displayed patriotic optimism by saying that the Stars and Stripes will win its first-ever World Cup. Only four percent of the rest of the world said they liked USA’s chances of winning.
• Within the European region, more people favor Spain (15%) than either Germany (14%) or England (10%). The latter two countries tied for second ahead of Spain in the worldwide survey.

Nielsen’s global survey polled 27,000 consumers in 55 countries on topics related to the World Cup. The survey found that while 34% of people around the world consider themselves soccer fans, an estimated 51% said they will be following the games in South Africa.