Out of the 18 metro areas tested on the reliability metric, a clear “leader” exists in just four areas, while in 10 of the circles, there is a tie for first place.  In the remaining four areas, there is neither a clear leader nor a tie.   Further, the leader in network reliability is not always the leader in market share.  For example, Reliance is the “clear lead” in the Andhra Pradesh area (whose capital and largest city Hyderabad), while Airtel has the most market share.  Reliance had the highest network reliability in three areas (Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry), while TATA was top in UP and Uttaranchal.

“As Indian consumers consider network performance as a major selection and retention criterion, there is a huge opportunity for network leaders to educate consumers about the superiority of their network performance to gain subscriber base.  This can be a huge marketing differentiator in an industry that is reeling under hyper competition,” said Shankari Panchapakesan, Executive Director, Telecom Practice at The Nielsen Company.

India’s wireless market potential is second only to China – and is rapidly threatening to overtake it.  With 12 service providers across 23 wireless “circles” (metro areas), and six to eight providers in each circle, competition for customers is fierce.  It is expected to heat up even more with the auction of new 3G licenses and the introduction of mobile number portability.

While this growth is impressive, seven countries still recorded declines in ad spending in the second quarter of 2009, including South Korea (-17%) and Taiwan (-16%).

“Although declines in advertising activity were still evident across free to air TV, newspapers and magazines in a number of markets, there were clear signs of a reversal of contracting activity.    In the more dynamic markets of China and India, both of which saw sharp cutbacks in advertising activity in the first quarter, advertising bounced back strongly with double digit growth over the same quarter in 2008,” said Richard Basil-Jones, Managing Director, Asia Pacific at Nielsen.  “Positive economic signs across the region suggest that the recovery to pre-financial crisis advertising activity may occur earlier than industry observers had forecast at the beginning of the year.”

On a year-to-year basis, ad spend was up 9 percent, reaching an estimated $112 billion (US).  Television was the only main media to record growth (10%), while newspapers and magazines showed modest declines (-1% and -3%, respectively).

Value has become a main focus for Asian shoppers, partly driven by the economic situation and partly as a result of increased retailer activity focused around price and promotions. According to Nielsen’s Asia Pacific Retail and Shopper Trends 2009 Report, more than 70 percent of shoppers claim to have become more price sensitive compared to last year. The effect: shoppers are more inclined to buy only what they need, spending their money on essentials rather than on treats or what they now consider ‘nice-to-haves’. They’re also consciously trying to cut down on the quantity purchased and are actively seeking out products on promotion.

Over the course of 2008 in Asia, grocery markets continued to show volume growth, led by India (+9%), China (+9%) and Vietnam (+18%), with only Taiwan (-7%) experiencing a decline in sales. Value sales increased by double figures in many markets on the back of high inflation for key food categories. But with inflation falling in all markets, we have seen value growth drop sharply in 2009, although overall volume growth in many markets has held up reasonably well with shoppers not cutting back significantly on grocery categories.

Traditional trade continues to lose share

As expected, the traditional counter service trade continued to lose share in Asia, with overall share of trade dropping another percentage point to 47 percent in 2008. At the same time, the absolute number of traditional grocery stores in the region grew by one percent to over 12.3 million stores. In most developed countries, traditional store numbers fell by five percentage points or more. In Korea, where traditional store numbers dropped by nine percentage points, the share of trade decreased from 15.9 to 13.9 percent, while in Taiwan the traditional trade now accounts for just over six percent of sales, having lost 1.5 percent share in the last 12 months.

The retail landscape looks very different in Southeast and South Asia, however, where traditional store numbers actually grew year on year, and even though share of total grocery sales continues to decline slowly, the majority of shoppers in all markets continue to shop at this trade channel. The traditional channel continues to meets shoppers’ needs for everyday convenience, personal service and affordability – being able to buy the smallest sizes and quantities.

Growth of small modern trade outlets

Globally, many large retailers such as Wal-Mart, Tesco and Carrefour have embraced a multi-format strategy that includes the development of smaller neighborhood stores. Similar growth in small modern trade outlets is also being seen across Asia, with mini-markets/small supermarket store numbers increasing by 17 percent in 2008 to over 100,000 stores.

Indonesia has led the way over the last 10 years and in 2008 more than 1,500 new stores opened, taking the total to over 10,500. These stores now account for more than 16 percent of total packaged grocery sales. Shoppers in Indonesia are continuing to embrace the convenient location, relatively good service and acceptably low prices offered at mini-markets.

Retailers in China are also investing in this store format, with store numbers growing by 22 percent in 2008 to more than 70,000 stores, accounting for more than three-quarters of all modern self-service outlets.

In South Korea we are also seeing the leading Hypermarket operators expanding into small supermarket formats, or ‘Super Supermarkets’ as they are known in South Korea. Samsung Tesco is now operating over 150 SSM Homeplus Express stores and E-mart is planning to open 30 or 40 small, 300 square meter E-Mart Everyday stores. The expansion of these large chains into the small store arena has led to concerns regarding competition with small store owners, and the South Korean government is considering introducing a bill to regulate the opening of small supermarkets.

With hopes for a full economic recovery accelerating in 26 out of the 28 major global markets surveyed as part of the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index in late June, consumers around the world might be expected to return to their previous spending patterns.  But according to a new report from Nielsen, some consumers may find it hard to shake recessionary habits.  The severity of the recession has brought about a change in consumer values, spending habits and lifestyle choices in some parts of the world, and the indication is some consumers in the West will continue to refrain from excessive or unnecessary spending across all aspects, at least in the short term.

Highlights from the report include:

• Nearly one-third (29%) of consumers will continue to economize on gas and electricity, with 48 percent of Americans saying that they will continue to save on utility bills.
• One in six global consumers will continue to cut back on take-away meals, with 22 percent of Australians indicating that’s one area they will continue to reduce spending. Significant numbers of New Zealanders, Japanese, Irish, South Africans, Brazilians and Americans also indicated they would stay away from take-away.
• One in six global consumers say that they will continue purchasing cheaper grocery products, spend less on new clothes and cut down on out-of-home entertainment.

The findings were not all cautious, however.  Consumers in the BRIC markets (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are generally looking forward to putting recent recessionary behaviors behind them and returning to their previous spending patterns.  Buoyed by rising stock markets and continued (if slower) economic growth, these consumers offer marketers, retailers and others some hope in the short term.

Findings included:

• Chinese remain the most confident of an economic rebound in the near future, and sales of consumer goods products remained robust last year – up 21 percent.
• One in six Russians said that they would not retain any of their recessionary habits once the economy improves, and are particularly eager to spend their money on clothing.
• Technology such as home computers and mobile phones look to be early winners: consumers in Japan, Korea and the Philippines are looking forward to upgrading their current gear.
• More than 40 percent of Americans say they expect to increase their spending on travel and holidays, dining out and out-of-home entertainment in the coming months.

As economic recovery gather pace, consumption and spending will increase, but the post-recession consumer is likely to consume very differently.  She will think twice – and maybe thrice – about making purchases big or small.  It’s now fashionable in the West to be frugal and trendy to be thrifty.  But marketers that are able to convey the value of their products and services will likely continue to grow and prosper.

Download the full report: Consumers in a Post-Recession World

“Display advertising is expected to substantially expand in India as Internet penetration accelerates as well as the lower costs involved in advertising online.  It is an industry that has seen rapid growth in the past couple of years and has the potential to give traditional forms of advertising a run for their money,” said Karthik Nagarajan, Associate Director, Online Division at Nielsen.

Top Five Sectors in Online Advertising, June-August 2009

“The primary reason for conducting Nielsen UMAR was to obtain first of all a realistic estimate of this segment, and secondly to profile their media and consumption habits,” said Partha Rakshit, Managing Director, South Asia at The Nielsen Company.

Nielsen’s survey of more than 18,250 affluent individuals across 35 Indian metro areas, initiated a new method of defining affluence. The study was based on a household’s lifestyle and ownership of consumer durables as opposed to monthly income or education.  Variables used included the employment of domestic help such as a maid or driver, holiday trips abroad, dining out habits, ownership of home computers, cars, air conditioners and type of home Internet connections.

Based on this study, Nielsen estimates a total of 2.5 million affluent households in India, of which 2.2 million belong to the “upper middle” segment; 200,000 in the “upper upper middle” segment and about 100,000 in the “rich” segment.  Delhi ranked as the most affluent city in the country, followed by Bangalore and Greater Mumbai.

Sixty percent of affluent households are nuclear families, and nearly a quarter have elders living at home.  Ninety percent own their homes, 75 percent have automatic washing machines and nearly 40 percent have a home theater and modular kitchen.

The affluents are energetic consumers of media.  At home, they will speak in regional Indian languages, but they prefer their newspapers to be in English (nearly 75%).  They like to watch TV in Hindi.  Sixty percent go to movies outside of the home, and more than half use the Internet at home.  Surprisingly, they are not that keen on reading magazines: more than 60 percent said they did not read magazines.

“Our survey delves deep into the media consumption habits of the affluent class of Indian society and provides a wealth of consumption pattern information to aid marketers in preparing their strategy and media plan,” said Rakshit.

Overall, the study found that the economic slowdown has not had a major impact on the spending habits of affluent individuals. However luxury accessories along with travel/vacations were areas where spending was curtailed significantly in comparison. [see graphic]

One-third of those surveyed said that they used OTAs to book airline tickets, while 17 percent said that they booked hotels and package tours.  Another 14 percent used OTAs for train travel.  More Indians used OTAs for their air travel bookings than web sites for airlines.  The strongest players in this growing market are Yatra, MakeMyTrip and Travel Guru.

More than two-thirds (77%) of Internet-connected Indians said that they use OTAs to search for airline information, 65 percent for train information and 59 percent for hotel information.

“This is a sign of increasing popularity and awareness amongst consumers of the online booking mode, and though they don’t make bookings currently, it won’t be long before they convert,” said Vatsala Pant, Director, Consumer Research at The Nielsen Company.

So what are the key factors that drive consumers to OTAs? Brand awareness is the most important driver, according to those surveyed, followed by brand personality and price.   Having attractive promotional offers and relationships with many airlines were some of the more important contributors to brand equity.

“Having good awareness is a necessity to succeed in the OTA segment. Playing a price game will not take the image of the brand very far,” said Pant.

Meanwhile, those who haven’t yet used OTAs said that the key factors keeping them from booking were that “the rates offered are not the cheapest as claimed by the agents” (33%) and that cancellation/modification procedures were “very tedious” (24%).

The Nielsen India Online Travel Agent Study was carried out in four metro areas and three mini metros and surveyed 842 adults age 20-55.

In the U.S., consumers remain skittish.  Shifts to private label brands continued at a strong pace, as they have for the last eight months, while consumers are shopping less frequently and spending less per trip.  Canadians, on the other hand, are spending more per trip, and are taking advantage of retail promotions.  Unlike in the U.S., private label brands are struggling to gain share as national brands step up promotional activity.

In Europe, the French remain relatively unchanged in their shopping.  Value channels continued to see growth and more retailers were selling on promotion, leading to a modest increase in the amount spent per trip.  Germans showed very little change in the number of shopping trips they took, nor did they increase or decrease how much they spent.  Unit sales increased, however.  In the UK, sales volume improved slightly from the previous month, while budget store brands’ growth slowed as consumers began returning to premium brands.  British shoppers were also spending slightly more per trip.  Italians continued to move to store brands and value channels, although they were reducing their shopping frequency.  Spaniards, who have been among the most optimistic, have not seen that reflected in spending.

Brazilians showed an 8 point surge in optimism, and this translated into more frequent shopping trips and higher sales, in both volume and value terms.  Hong Kong and China both showed growth in sales, but Taiwan showed declines, and optimism there was among the lowest in Asia.  Indian consumers’ confidence was high, and volume and value sales both increased by more than 5 percent.

“While things are starting to look up, it’s clear that Americans and Western Europeans aren’t quite convinced that recovery has taken hold and remain cautious when it comes to shopping.  The labor market is clearly affecting this behavior.  It comes as little surprise that Brazil, India and China – countries that have generally been less affected by the global recession – are among the first to see renewed consumer confidence and sales growth,” said James Russo, Vice President, Global Consumer Insights at The Nielsen Company.

The Buzz

While the idea of recovery hasn’t opened up global consumers’ wallets quite yet, it has started to infiltrate their discussions on the Web.  In June, 71 percent of survey respondents thought that their countries were in recession, an improvement from the 77 percent who thought the same in April.  Additionally, 26 percent believed that their country will be out of a recession in the next twelve months, up three points from April.  Global recession buzz has declined 27 percent since March.  In July, however recessionary buzz perked up, primarily in Western Europe.

“We are likely to see an overall downward trend in recession discussions, but it will be choppy until consumers really feel as if they are experiencing the recovery,” said Russo.

Download the latest Nielsen Economic Current.

Close to one in five (18%) of Indian mobile customers said that they would change their operator if they have the ability to retain their number.  For some mobile services, this news might cause some concern: a quarter of customers of Reliance and Tata Indicom said that they would be keen to change if MNP becomes reality, while 19 percent of BSNL subscribers would do the same.   

Those most likely to switch: high spenders, postpaid subscribers and business subscribers indicated a higher tendency to change carriers versus prepaid and low to medium spenders.  Postpaid spenders have almost double the minutes usage of prepaid subscribers, and also have a far higher usage of data applications. 

“When MNP was introduced in the U.S., price and promotions were by far the leading drivers of acquisition.  Ultimately, the operator who leveraged the consumer propensity to choose based on those criteria was successful in riding the MNP wave.  In India, MNP can be leveraged by operators through smart, targeted marketing and promotions to coincide with the introduction of MNP.  It presents a powerful opportunity for operators to drive in-bound porting of high-value subscribers provided they have a good understanding of who is more likely to switch and why,” said Shankari Panchapakesan, Executive Director, Telecom Practice at Nielsen India. 

According to Nielsen’s research, 39 percent of those surveyed said they selected their mobile operator based on price, while network quality was the driver of choice for 36 percent.  Promotion, reputation and customer service were also identified as considerations.

Nielsen’s Mobile Consumer Insights study surveyed 12,500 Indian mobile subscribers across 50 metropolitan areas.

“In the previous Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence survey conducted in March, we were seeing the first signs that as far as the world’s consumers were concerned, the recession had bottomed out. Three months later, they’re starting to embrace the idea of recovery – which is a major turning point,” said Jonathan Banks, Business Insights Director, The Nielsen Company.

In Nielsen’s latest survey, which polled 14,029 online consumers in 28 countries late in June, 71 percent of respondents thought their country was in recession – a positive reduction of six points from a high of 77 percent when the survey ran in March 2009.

“The BRIC and Asian markets have recorded the greatest jumps in Consumer Confidence Indices in the past three months,” noted Banks. “Consumer confidence in India jumped 13 Index points, and climbed 9 points in Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Indonesia. Consumer confidence rose 8 Index points in Taiwan and Brazil, and 7 points in Singapore, Turkey, Russia, Philippines and the UK. The only exceptions to this upswing were in the USA and New Zealand, which held flat in the second quarter, with Germany the only country to register a decline of one Index point,” said Banks.

Even in the market registering a small decline – Germany – there are encouraging signs that a recovery is imminent. According to the Nielsen survey, nearly one in three Germans (29%) said the recession would be over in the next 12 months, compared to only 22 percent three months ago. One in three Germans also thought “now is a good time to buy the things they want”, indicating a renewed willingness to spend on discretionary items. Thirty-eight percent described their personal finances as “good” for the next year.

“This is one of the strongest indicators of a global consensus among consumers that the worst is over, and that finally, there is light at the end of this long tunnel. And consumers in emerging and Asian markets are clearly of the view that they are driving in the recovery lane now,” added Banks.
The latest Nielsen Confidence numbers are a welcome return to positive, confident territory for consumers in the developed Asian markets of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, who have been battling economic inertia and political instability for several quarters.

“Asian consumer confidence appears to have been boosted through successful government economic stimulus packages that were speedily and effectively implemented at the onset of the global recession,” noted Banks. In the world’s second largest economy, the Japanese government implemented tax breaks, introduced cash deductions and subsidies on new car purchases, as well as providing cash payment and premium gift coupon schemes to stimulate spending.

“As well as expanding credit terms to small and medium sized businesses, in Japan there are even incentives to purchase eco-friendly household appliances as part of the government’s new environmental policy, and national toll prices for motorways have been discounted to encourage domestic tourism,” observed Banks.

Stock market gains in the BRIC and Asian markets have also had a major impact on consumer confidence,” said Banks. More than any other region, stock markets in Asia have rallied and property prices are starting to regain their pre-recession values. Russia’s stock market is up 60 percent from the start of the year and Taiwan is up over 50 percent. Brazil and Singapore’s stock markets have gained around 40 percent in the past six months and the South Korea and Hong Kong stock markets are up over 30 percent. With stock market gains so intrinsically linked to consumer confidence in Asian markets, it’s no surprise that Asian consumers are most confident about a receding recession, led by Hong Kong (-14 pts), Taiwan (-13 pts), Singapore and Japan (-12 pts), India and China (-10 pts).

“Positive economic news and growing consumer optimism in the past few months have definitely led consumers in these markets to believe that economic recovery will come sooner rather than later,” said Banks. According to the Nielsen survey conducted in March this year, 28 percent of Singaporeans said they expected their recession to end within 12 months – last month this number rose to 39 percent. UAE consumers also share this sentiment. In March, 32 percent of UAE consumers thought the recession would be over within a year but in June 43 percent said they expected the recession to be over before the middle of 2010.

Latest Nielsen data also shows that consumer confidence in the UK – a country that has suffered one of the most dramatic downturns in consumer confidence in the last year – is on the rebound, climbing 7 Index points in the second quarter. “UK consumers are getting the hang of consuming less. People with jobs – still the overwhelming majority – now have more disposable income as they reduce spending on big-ticket items like cars and holidays. With mortgage interest rates at their lowest levels, savings rates are increasing quickly and this has increased financial confidence,” said Banks.
“Consumers know that recovery won’t happen overnight but there has certainly been more good news than bad in the past few months,” noted Banks.

The decline in constant bad economic news in the media has directly impacted on the topics consumers are talking and blogging about. According to Nielsen Buzzmetrics, Nielsen’s service for measuring online conversations, the number of online discussions, or” buzz”, in the UK mentioning the word “recession” dropped around 60 percent between late March and late June this year. “People’s obsession with the recession has switched to how to live and spend more moderately in a new economic era,” said Banks.

Italian consumers have also become more optimistic, showing a strong gain of 7 Index points – their highest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index since the second half of 2007. “Our survey supports recent Italian government figures which indicate that consumer confidence is returning to the Italian economy. In the last three months, Italian consumers’ concern for job security and the economy fell by 4 percentage points respectively, while average supermarket prices fell 0.2 percent in June 2009, indicating that consumers are less concerned about rising food bills than they were two years ago,” said Banks. The rise in consumer confidence in Italy has also been positively impacted by the government’s stimulus policies and the significant decline of negative economic coverage in the media. Online discussions mentioning the word “recession” have decreased by 35 percent this year according to Nielsen.

Globally, job security and the economy remained consumers’ top two concerns in life but even the level of these concerns has abated in the last three months and recorded declines of two and four index points respectively.