Although retailers have been thinking about the 2009 holiday season since last January, consumers are just starting to think about their holiday plans. As we do every year, Nielsen fielded its annual holiday retail survey at the beginning of this month to get an understanding of consumers’ holiday shopping plans.  While the economy appears to be improving at a snail’s pace, it’s apparent that many consumers intend to spend less and save more this holiday season. In fact, some 42 percent of respondents stated that compared to a year ago they were planning on spending less money on holiday gifts, compared with only 4 percent who intend to spend more.

An even more surprising trend is that of the money that consumers plan to spend this holiday season, a smaller percentage will be spent online: 63 percent of survey respondents said that they would do at least some holiday shopping online, down 10 points from two years ago. Meanwhile, 7 percent of respondents said they would not do any shopping online compared to just 1 percent in 2007.

Consumers Expect to Spend Less Money Online this Year

Among those that do plan to shop online this holiday season, many consumers expect to spend significantly less than last year. In 2008, 42 percent answered that they would spend more than $300 online during the holiday season. This year, that percentage has dropped to just 31 percent, while 22 percent of respondents said that they are going to spend less than $100 online.

So why do some consumers shop online? Interestingly, the main reason is not to save money, but for convenience. Respondents said the top reason they would shop online was the ability to shop whenever they wanted, followed closely by the ability to avoid the large crowds associated with holiday shopping.

While consumers appear to no longer view the Internet as a value channel, they still see it as a place to do comparison shopping, find coupons and do research. And it’s not just consumers coming from lower household incomes–shoppers of all ages and income levels rely on the Internet to inform their in-store purchases. In October 2009, over one-third of the U.S. online population visited at least one deal-oriented Web site.

Although many consumers don’t feel that they save money by making purchases online, they do view the Internet as a deal-seeking venue. When asked how they use the Internet before going shopping in physical stores, 55 percent of respondents said they use the Internet to compare prices across retailers and 49 percent answered that they use the Web to learn about sales and promotions available in physical stores.

It is clear that while the majority of all purchases continue to take place offline, the Internet has an important role to play—deals found online impact holiday purchase decisions and drive purchases at brick and mortar locations.

For more information and insights on the 2009 holiday season, download our recent webinar,2009 Holiday Retail Season: What Consumers Have in Store for Retailers this Season.

Frugal consumers continue to look for deals both in-store and online. At grocery, almost one-third of purchases are bought on deal and online visits to coupon and reward web sites are surging. It’s important to take note of the demographics behind the growing numbers of online deal hunters:  Consumers visiting couponing and rewards sites tend to be women, over the age of 55, residing in smaller households, without children and their household income skews toward the affluent ($100K+).

While beleaguered shoppers will be looking for ways to make the season bright, retailers can do their part by bringing some much needed holiday cheer to the shopping experience:

1. Tempt taste buds with in-store tasting and cooking demos.
2. Savor the smells of the season with aroma therapy.
3. Lighten moods with music from local school bands or choirs.
4. Touch the lives of others by collecting food bank donations.
5. Switch out in-store TV ads with broadcasts of holiday classics.
6. Reward frequent shoppers with holiday prize drawings.
7. Partner with manufacturers on donations to local charities.
8. Enhance the décor with holiday decorations.
9. Serve up a smile and an appreciative attitude.
10. Respect staff workers with reduced holiday hours.

As the Internet and social media continue to play a critical role in how consumer make purchase decisions, tune into the webinar, 2009 Holiday Season: What Consumers Have In Store for Retailers This Season on November 16 to learn more.

Despite increased optimism about the economy, the social media landscape indicates that we are in a similar place to where we were this time last year when it comes to spending; buzz about Christmas and holiday shopping is down 3% year-over-year. This activity is in line with other research at Nielsen relative to retail expectations and consumers’ personal finances that indicate modest spending from a cautious consumer base.

However, consumers are still buzzing about the gifts they’ve already purchased or are planning to buy in the coming weeks. Notably, online discussion focuses largely on offline shopping.

While online shopping has been rising over the last few years, we’re also finding that consumers are using the internet to find the best deals at retail outlets, toy stores and more. So what happens online, doesn’t always stay online in the new economy where deal hunting is driving buzz.

As consumers count down the days to the holiday season, we see two key trends emerging:

1. Parents are actively buzzing about the must-haves of the season within online communities
2. Buzz about gift cards is on the rise, largely in response to retailers’ use of gift cards as purchase incentives

Games that buzz
When analyzing the product categories shoppers most frequently discuss online, Nielsen found that kid-friendly video games generated more buzz than even the most buzzed-about toys, largely driven by highly engaged gamers. The November 15 release date for New Super Mario Bros is highly anticipated, catapulting this video game to the head of the pack in terms of buzz. Additional buzz in the gaming world has come from price drop and new model announcements for Playstation 3 and XBOX.

Zhu Zhu the next Tickle Me Elmo?
Buzz supports Toys “R” Us’ “Fabulous 15″ predictions for the 2009 holiday season, with Zhu Zhu Pets, Bakugan Brawlers and Transformers Revenge of the Fallen figurines topping the list of the most frequently buzzed about toys.

Shoppers deem Zhu Zhu Pets the hot toy of the season as parents swap stories of empty shelves and elevated prices at retailers. An emerging Zhu Zhu market has also sprung up on eBay. Strong buzz on LeapFrog’s educational toys are a holdover from the 2008 holiday season; parents are especially interested in the Leapster and Tag Reader product lines this season.

Gift Cards buzz is on the rise, buoyed by incentive programs
A growing proportion of online conversation focuses on gift cards—including gift cards awarded as purchase incentives (15% growth in buzz year-over-year, September 2008 vs. September 09). Amazon.com and Toys “R” Us have experienced the largest year-over-year growth in buzz about gift cards of the retailers and brands measured.

This increased interest in gift cards is largely driven by retailers bundling gift cards with purchase incentives. Gift card bundles essentially provide shoppers with two sets of gifts: the original purchase and the gift card which can either be given as a gift or used to buy more holiday presents. These incentives tend to generate a sizable amount of discussion online—especially when tied to the gaming category. For example, Amazon.com recently coupled a price break on Wii with a $25 gift card, generating a surge in online conversation about Amazon.

Retailers who do not currently use gift cards to encourage purchases may want to consider taking advantage of this growing opportunity during the holiday season.

Related: Watch Nielsen’s Ken Cassar Discuss Online Holiday Sales CNBC

July 3rd traditionally has the highest sales volume for all three types of meat. Consumers were 50 percent more likely to buy hot dogs during the four-week period ending on July 12, 2008 than any other time over the year. The trend is even more pronounced for bratwurst and knockwurst last year, with consumers 106 percent more likely to buy the thicker sausages during the same period.
Until recently, purchases of bratwurst and knockwurst have been growing, with annual sales rising 8.9 percent between June of 2007 and June of 2009. However, sales of bratwurst and knockwurst by volume have fallen by 6.7 percent over the past two months, ending June 13, 2009, compared to the same period last year.

Sales of hot dogs have seen a marked increase during the past two months, increasing 3.7 percent over the eight-week period ending 6/13/09 compared to the same period the previous year. Considering that hot dogs are the less expensive option, the reversal of these trends may reflect consumers’ tighter BBQ budgets.

As for the beer that consumers will be buying to wash down their dogs, Nielsen predicts that almost two billion servings will be purchased in preparation for the Fourth of July in 2009. Supermarkets are likely to see the biggest increase in consumer purchases across all beer categories, with premium light beer driving almost 35 percent of sales volume.

Categories that drove the highest sales spikes were musical instruments and accessories, with more than half of the purchases for the year made in the last eight weeks of 2008.  Women’s and children’s fragrances, baking supplies and computer electronics products were also favorites.

Perhaps anticipating spending more time at home in the coming year, 10 percent of all homes bought new home entertainment equipment, with TVs accounting for 35 percent of those purchases. Almost two-thirds of those TVs were high-def units.  Video game consoles added up to 18 percent of entertainment equipment purchases, while DVD players contributed an additional 11 percent of sales.  VCRs continued their slow march to extinction, comprising less than 2 percent of sales.

DVD sales fell 14 percent in the last eight weeks of the year compared to the same period in 2007. Meanwhile, box office receipts climbed 11 percent to $1.655 billion during the holiday period with a number of holiday favorites hitting the big screen.

Read the complete review of holiday sales in the current edition of Consumer Insight.

Growth (by value) of British food sales for the four-week period ending December 27 was up by 2.6% year-over-year overall and by 4.5% year-over-year for grocery multiples.

“The consumer was much more cautious this year, and it was a back to basics Christmas,” Mike Watkins, senior manager, retailer services, Nielsen, noted.  “Sales of packaged grocery (+11%), frozen (+10%), and confectionery (+8%) were buoyant, while sales of liquor (+4%), heath and beauty (+1%), and deli counter (+1%) were more muted.”

Overall, “Out of Town” super stores (25,000 square feet+) were the star holiday performers, with sales up by 8% in the two weeks ending December 27, according to Nielsen.  The data suggests that shoppers held back on Christmas shopping, waiting until last minute and then maximizing their spending at larger stores.

Among “Out of Town” retailers, Asda had particularly strong sales growth (+6.7%).  The chain increased its market share from 15.7% during December 2007 to 16.1% this December, according to Nielsen.

Morrisons also showed impressive growth (+9.1%) during the 12 weeks ending December 27.  The retailer increasing its market share from 10.1% during Q4 2007 to 10.6% for the fourth quarter of 2008.

“Retailers with keen pricing and a value for money offering have really performed well over Christmas,” Watkins noted.  “It is evident that consumers really did cut back on the luxuries and make do this year.”

View the full press release.

The Xbox 360 garnered the largest share of online buzz between November 1 and December 9, with 41.6% of blog messages mentioning Xbox, Wii or Playstation.

In comparison, Nintendo’s Wii was mentioned in 29.8% of game console blog messages, while Sony’s Playstation ranked third with mentions in 28.6% of gaming-related blog posts.

Among gift-related online buzz, TV-related terms, mentioned in 52.5% of gift-related messages, dominated blogosphere chatter.

DVDs (24.4% share), toys (11.3% share), laptops (8.4% share), and GPS (3.4% share) rounded out the select five gift ideas.

View the press release.

“Even with the weakening economy, an unstable stock market and a rising unemployment rate, Black Friday traffic to online retail sites grew at a double digit rate this year,” said Ken Cassar, vice president, industry insights, Nielsen Online.

Black Friday Online Conversations and Consumer Perceptions

• Not surprisingly, shopping incentives were a key part of Black Friday discussions. The terms “deals,” “sales,” and “doorbusters,” referring to deep discounts intended to get shoppers in the door, were all closely associated with Black Friday.
• Specific retailers were also mentioned in relation to Black Friday, including Sears, CVS, Wal-Mart, JCPenney, Staples and Circuit City, among others.
• Consumers discussed specific products and gift ideas, including high definition televisions, video games, laptops and toys.

See Nielsen Online’s Black Friday BAM here.

The Nielsen Online Holiday eShopping Index is comprised of over 120 representative online retailers across twelve categories, and acts as a barometer to gauge the level of activity at online shopping destinations during the holiday season. The Index illustrates increased shopping activity through category growth.

View the complete report.

Read coverage of Nielsen’s findings in TIME, the Financial Times, by the Associated Press and Bloomberg, and on CNET.com, NPR.org, and Digital Daily.

When details of the global financial crisis overtook the headlines in mid-September, consumers and brands began assessing their position in the economy and strategizing for the downturn. Retailers have reacted by announcing plans to offer deep discounts for the holidays, from high-end to mass-merchandise. Some have rolled out deals in advance of Black Friday. With reports of more and better deals from retailers and a bleak economic outlook for consumers, it would be natural to assume that consumers are hungry to take advantage of opportunities to save money. But will consumers tighten their belts so much that even deep discounts won’t get them spending?

Continue reading at Connecting The Dots… Nielsen Online’s Analyst Blog.

The results are based on a Nielsen Online survey, conducted November 6-11, intended to gauge online consumers’ holiday shopping plans for 2008.

Top 10 Reasons to Shop Online (U.S.)

Holiday Gift Dollars Shifting Online

Survey results indicate that holiday gift budgets are shifting online. Respondents said that they would spend an increased percent of their holiday shopping budget online, an average of 41 percent compared to 39 percent last year. And more respondents indicated that they would spend the majority of their holiday gift budgets online, up to 36 percent from 32 percent a year ago.

Prospects For Growth

More consumers plan to make purchases in the “Toys & Video Games” and “Books” categories this holiday season than last. The top three retailers when ranked by the year-over-year increase in respondents intending to shop there this season were: Amazon, Wal-Mart and Barnes & Noble.

“We believe holiday online sales will grow from 2007, but likely at a single-digit rate and representing the smallest increase we’ve seen since the online commerce market was born,” said Ken Cassar, vice president of industry insights, Nielsen Online. “If there is a silver lining, it is that consumers continue to view the online channel’s principal value proposition as convenience, more than price, allowing retailers the opportunity to differentiate on service and selection.”

Black Friday And Beyond

Throughout the upcoming holiday shopping season, which officially commences with Black Friday on Nov. 28, Nielsen Online will report weekly – and, in some cases, daily – online audience data for top online shopping destinations as well as for its annual Holiday eShopping Index.

Download Nielsen Online’s full press release.