Fourth of July Hot Dogs: The Latest Economic Indicator?

The effects of the recession may be seen on the BBQ grill this Fourth of July. Sales of hot dogs have been going up in recent months while register rings for more expensive bratwurst and knockwurst have been declining, according to new research from The Nielsen Company. This is a reversal of sales trends the past several years.

July 3rd traditionally has the highest sales volume for all three types of meat. Consumers were 50 percent more likely to buy hot dogs during the four-week period ending on July 12, 2008 than any other time over the year. The trend is even more pronounced for bratwurst and knockwurst last year, with consumers 106 percent more likely to buy the thicker sausages during the same period. Continue Reading This Post »

Holiday Sales 2008: The Definitive Report

The early predictions were gloomy: the recession gripping the U.S. would make for a dismal holiday shopping season for retailers.  And while many retailers certainly felt the effects of the economic downturn, holiday dollar sales in 2008 actually increased 5.8 percent or $99.5 billion across grocery and drug stores, mass merchandisers and convenience stores, according to Nielsen.

Categories that drove the highest sales spikes were musical instruments and accessories, with more than half of the purchases for the year made in the last eight weeks of 2008.  Women’s and children’s fragrances, baking supplies and computer electronics products were also favorites.

Perhaps anticipating spending more time at home in the coming year, 10 percent of all homes bought new home entertainment equipment, with TVs accounting for 35 percent of those purchases. Almost two-thirds of those TVs were high-def units.  Video game consoles added up to 18 percent of entertainment equipment purchases, while DVD players contributed an additional 11 percent of sales.  VCRs continued their slow march to extinction, comprising less than 2 percent of sales.

DVD sales fell 14 percent in the last eight weeks of the year compared to the same period in 2007. Meanwhile, box office receipts climbed 11 percent to $1.655 billion during the holiday period with a number of holiday favorites hitting the big screen.

Read the complete review of holiday sales in the current edition of Consumer Insight.

In Britain, “Out Of Town” Super Stores Reap Rewards Of Frugal Holiday Shopping

Sales in the British grocery sector picked up over the holidays, but were largely negated by weak sales at the beginning of December, Nielsen reported last week.

Growth (by value) of British food sales for the four-week period ending December 27 was up by 2.6% year-over-year overall and by 4.5% year-over-year for grocery multiples.

“The consumer was much more cautious this year, and it was a back to basics Christmas,” Mike Watkins, senior manager, retailer services, Nielsen, noted.  “Sales of packaged grocery (+11%), frozen (+10%), and confectionery (+8%) were buoyant, while sales of liquor (+4%), heath and beauty (+1%), and deli counter (+1%) were more muted.”

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Holiday Blog Buzz Battle: Xbox Bests Wii, Playstation

Microsoft’s Xbox is the most buzzed about game console so far this holiday season, Nielsen Online reported Thursday.

The Xbox 360 garnered the largest share of online buzz between November 1 and December 9, with 41.6% of blog messages mentioning Xbox, Wii or Playstation.

In comparison, Nintendo’s Wii was mentioned in 29.8% of game console blog messages, while Sony’s Playstation ranked third with mentions in 28.6% of gaming-related blog posts.

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Black Friday Online Traffic Up 10% In 2008

Nielsen Online reports that traffic from home and work to the Holiday eShopping Index increased 10 percent year over year on Black Friday, growing from 28.8 million unique visitors in 2007 to 31.7 million unique visitors in 2008 across more than 120 representative online retailers.

“Even with the weakening economy, an unstable stock market and a rising unemployment rate, Black Friday traffic to online retail sites grew at a double digit rate this year,” said Ken Cassar, vice president, industry insights, Nielsen Online.

Black Friday Online Conversations and Consumer Perceptions

• Not surprisingly, shopping incentives were a key part of Black Friday discussions. The terms “deals,” “sales,” and “doorbusters,” referring to deep discounts intended to get shoppers in the door, were all closely associated with Black Friday.
• Specific retailers were also mentioned in relation to Black Friday, including Sears, CVS, Wal-Mart, JCPenney, Staples and Circuit City, among others.
• Consumers discussed specific products and gift ideas, including high definition televisions, video games, laptops and toys.

See Nielsen Online’s Black Friday BAM here.
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Nielsen Online Looks At Black Friday And Online Deals

By Emily Heitkamp, Nielsen Online

When details of the global financial crisis overtook the headlines in mid-September, consumers and brands began assessing their position in the economy and strategizing for the downturn. Retailers have reacted by announcing plans to offer deep discounts for the holidays, from high-end to mass-merchandise. Some have rolled out deals in advance of Black Friday. With reports of more and better deals from retailers and a bleak economic outlook for consumers, it would be natural to assume that consumers are hungry to take advantage of opportunities to save money. But will consumers tighten their belts so much that even deep discounts won’t get them spending?

Continue reading at Connecting The Dots… Nielsen Online’s Analyst Blog.

Holiday Shoppers Continue to Shift Purchases Online for Convenience

American consumers will continue to shift their gift buying online this holiday season, citing convenience, time saving, and price according to Nielsen Online. Amid the current economic downturn, 53% of consumers cite price as a reason to buy online, compared with 46% last year. However, convenience continues to trump price as 76% of consumers cite the ability to shop 24 hours a day and 74% cite time saving as key factors for choosing online shopping.

The results are based on a Nielsen Online survey, conducted November 6-11, intended to gauge online consumers’ holiday shopping plans for 2008.

Top 10 Reasons to Shop Online (U.S.)

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2008 U.S. Holiday Sales Expected To Reach $98 Billion

This year, U.S. consumers are expected to spend more than $98 billion during the November-December holiday retail season, Nielsen reported Thursday.

Nielsen’s holiday retail forecast predicts a 4.7% gain in dollar sales over 2007.  Unit sales, however, are expected to be virtually flat (-0.8%) versus a year ago.

The forecast includes projected sales at food stores, drug stores, mass merchandisers, and convenience stores, across 125 product categories tracked by Nielsen.

With the economy in turmoil, the 2008 holiday season will be closely watched for indications of declining consumer spending.  Declines in consumer spending were last recorded in the fourth quarter of 1991, during the recession of the early 1990s.

Go behind the numbers: read NielsenWire’s Q&A with James Russo, co-author of Nielsen’s holiday retail forecast.

View in depth data on holiday retail sales projections and consumer spending expectations.

View the full press release.

Read coverage of Nielsen’s findings in Convenience Store News and Adweek.

Submit questions about the report to Nielsen forecast co-authors, James Russo and Todd Hale, by commenting below.

Behind The Data: 2008 Holiday Retail Outlook

Although this year’s holiday season comes on the heels of exceptional economic turmoil, U.S. consumers are expected to spend $98 billion during November and December — a 4.7% gain in dollar sales over the 2007 holiday retail season, according to Nielsen.

NielsenWire recently spoke with the co-author of Nielsen’s holiday retail forecast, James Russo, Vice President of Food Sector Marketing, Nielsen.

NielsenWire: What is the forecast for 2008 holiday shopping season*?

James Russo:
All consumer, economic, and trade indications point to a flat-to-declining holiday selling season across the core consumer packaged goods (CPG) categories that Nielsen tracks. While we forecast, in dollar sales, a gain of 4.7% vs. a year ago, we also predict a decline of -0.8% in unit sales. This is directly tied to the current volatile economic environment, during which close to 33% of households across all income levels are projected to spend less this holiday season, according to a Nielsen Consumer Household survey conducted during the third quarter of 2008.  But despite this tough economic climate and slowing sales, there are opportunities for growth. Segmentation of consumers, channels, and categories will be critical to uncovering those opportunities.

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