The 2009 flu season is fast approaching (or has already arrived) and this year, swine flu is expected to figure prominently, but online consumers aren’t yet paying attention.

In fact, online discussions about the swine flu have held relatively steady since a spike in April, when federal and world health officials first warned of the spread of H1N1 or “swine flu.” Even now, amid news that 97% of early September’s flu cases were related to the H1N1 virus and as recommendations roll out about swine flu vaccines, Internet buzz a about the phenomenon remains at less than .5% of all online discussions, down from a peak of 2.5% of all buzz in April, according to Nielsen’s BuzzMetrics service.

The U.S Centers for Disease Control’s weekly FluView report (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/) notes that more than 90% of flu cases currently being reported are H1N1 cases, though the total H1N1 diagnoses per week has dropped over the past two months. The 2009-10 flu season officially begins Oct. 4.

Slight increases in Internet discussion occurred in late August and early September, fueled by flu outbreaks on college campuses and in schools, warnings about possible business absenteeism this flu season, and ongoing news about the swine flu vaccine – including continued tests of the vaccine, news about vaccine availability and production rate, and even by skepticism about safety of the vaccine and confusion about vaccine recommendations for children.

“We saw really significant volume of discussion about H1N1 after the first alerts were issued in April, and although buzz is relatively low now, I expect that we will continue to see the discussion pick up over the next several weeks,” says Melissa Davies, research director of Nielsen’s healthcare practice. “We may see a convergence of events driving this – with school back in session, the start of traditional flu season, and the H1N1 vaccine becoming available later this fall, people will be hungry for good information about swine flu and how to keep themselves and their families safe.”

“Understanding what is currently important to bloggers is essential to marketers since we know that highly blogged about topics are important indicators of conversational sustainability and impact,” said Pete Blackshaw, executive vice president, digital strategic services, Nielsen Online. “Moreover, those topics with high blog links tend to embed themselves prominently in search results.”

Top 10 Blogged Topics, April 2009

Source: Nielsen BuzzMetrics Custom Analysis

Swine Flu and Politics Top of Mind

Despite the fact that it wasn’t until April 24th that the World Health Organization issued its first Disease Outbreak Notice regarding the H1N1 virus, the flu outbreak quickly ascended all other topics to become the most blogged about subject for the month. Discussions ranged from reporting the first flu-related death in the United States to conversations on the Centers for Disease Control’s handling of the situation. Easter was also an important topic for the month, deposed from the No. 1 position by the flu buzz late in the month.

Politics were also top of mind for the online community in April. Bloggers discussed PA Senator Arlen Specter’s switch from the GOP to the Democratic Party, with opinions ranging from it being a disastrous power play to believing the move will work in his favor. Bloggers also discussed President Obama’s speech in early April in which he stated that America will “seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.” Some felt that this idea, while good on paper, is not realistic, while others took the opportunity to express their thoughts and concerns on nuclear weapons as a whole.

“The blogosphere is not just a place where people write about the day-to-day events of their own lives—it also acts as a forum for people to share their opinions and thoughts on things that are occurring in the world. The influence of these bloggers is far-reaching, whether it is sharing their opinion on an upcoming movie launch or a devastating flu epidemic, they are talking and people are listening,” added Blackshaw.

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Interest, however, remains strong on sites like Twitter, where as of this writing, the Centers For Disease Control has added roughly 30K more followers since Friday. Additionally, the use of H1N1 to describe the virus has increased.

It has been impossible to escape the news about swine flu (or H1N1 virus) this week. One of the most interesting developments this week has been watching the way people are using the Internet, and specifically social media, to connect with one another around this issue. As of yesterday, buzz volume about swine flu in the blogosphere was still on its meteoric climb, far surpassing discussion levels for the peanut butter/salmonella scare that happened earlier this year or, for a different reference point, recent pop singing sensation Susan Boyle.

One measure of the extent of Internet engagement regarding swine flu is Wikipedia. The site’s page on swine influenza has been updated literally hundreds of times this week. Wikipedia created a separate page focused on the 2009 swine flu outbreak for current information – that page has been updated 119 times as of early on May 1.

Swine flu is also gaining notice on the social networking site Facebook. On Monday there were around 100 Facebook groups dedicated to swine flu. As of early May 1, there are more than 500 groups. The three largest groups have a combined total of 10,000+ members.

Twitter has gained media attention this week as a source of fervent swine flu discussion. By some accounts, swine flu mentions topped out at a rate of more than 10,000 tweets per hour earlier in the week. There were concerns that this discussion created unnecessary fear about swine flu – it certainly can’t be denied that misinformation was being shared alongside good information about the epidemic. There have been plenty of joking references to swine flu, too, but a significant portion of the discussion seems to center around a legitimate desire to connect with others and talk about real issues. Consider these tweets from this morning:

• “Swine-flu symptoms: Checklist to see if you may be infected: … http://bit.ly/9L4Wx
• “This swine flu stuff is kinda creeping me out.”
• “Monitoring the travel/swine flu scenario/issues closely. Biden didn’t do the travel industry any favors yesterday!”
• “Thinks it’s lame that they had to come up with a “politically correct” name for swine flu, to compensate for the ignorance of the masses.”
• “New flu strain having significant indirect adverse impacts on our swine industry at a time when our producers absolutely do not need it!”

CDC Provides a Voice of Reason

Among all those bloggers and tweeters talking about swine flu was a voice that might be surprising to some: the government. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is leveraging several different online channels to provide a voice of reason in the fury of discussion around swine flu – and in the process is setting a roadmap for those wondering how social media can be used for crisis communication.

CDC has a few Twitter accounts, but two – @CDCemergency and @CDC_eHealth – are being used to updates about swine flu. CDCemergency’s tweets include links to more information and provide straightforward tips on avoiding swine flu, such as “New Guidance – Swine Flu – home isolation of the sick, school closures, and other social distancing interventions.” @CDC_eHealth is updating with slightly lower frequency, but provides the same type of straightforward, informational updates, including links and an 800 phone number for more information on swine flu, as well as a handwashing e-card that people can send to friends and family.

What is particularly amazing is the number of people who are being reached in this way: At this writing, CDCemergency has more than 65,000 followers. That number is up 86% since we began tracking it on Tuesday. Compare that to between 500 and 700 individuals who were following HHS Twitter updates when the salmonella/peanut butter crisis hit a few months back.

@CDC_eHealth is also tweeting links to CDC’s YouTube channel, which has several new videos related to swine flu, as well as a phone number and e-mail address for more information. One video that provides a basic overview of swine flu, including symptoms and prevention strategies, has racked up more than 198,000 views and has a 4.5-star rating based on 881 reviews.

CDC.gov: CDC has also set up a dedicated page about swine flu on its site, with a current count of confirmed cases in the U.S. by state, travel notices, guidance for professionals and tips on staying healthy. The site also offers subscription options for e-mail updates and RSS feeds, a podcast on symptoms, and a link to CDC’s Twitter profiles. All updates are available in English and Spanish. So far this week, the site has been updated eight or nine times daily, including on the weekend.

CDC’s online presence seems to be having an impact: Unique visitors to cdc.gov have increased by nearly 100 percent this week, while total visits have grown 123 percent.

Online discussion of swine flu continues to grow at an incredible pace, far surpassing the rate of new diagnoses. We’ll continue to watch the discussion unfold and measure new developments in the days ahead.