SUMMARY: What a difference a year makes. Restaurant operators enjoyed a solid 2008, but by mid-year 2009, more than 4,000 had closed and the average guest check plunged more than 8%. Where did all the diners go? Grocery stores, supercenters and club stores—to pick up meat, seafood, produce, deli and bakery goods for a home-shared meal.

There is nothing like staying home for real comfort. – Jane Austen

Home. It’s our refuge when the world gets to be too much. The upside of a recession is that we come together around the kitchen table to share our meal and our day, taking comfort in the safe harbor of home. While that’s bad news for restaurants, from white table cloth to casual dining, it’s good news for retailers.

Through September 2009, Nielsen reported total store sales—which includes the Rx, perishables, center store grocery (UPC food & beverage), health & beauty care, and general merchandise departments—are expanding. The perishable department is growing faster than all retail sectors in the total market.

According to Nielsen, reported household deli spend for year ending September 2009 was $200—a 5% increase from last year. Bakery whipped up average annual household sales of $174 per year with a 3% increase. Fresh meat and seafood cooked up sales of $437 per year for a 4% gain, produce increased 3% based on annual average sales of $279 per household. Perishable departments are becoming one of the most productive departments at retail and channels outside of supermarkets are taking notice.

Recession reaction
What the recession has wrought, among other things, is a transfer of dollars away from dining out toward spending more on prepared meals at retail. A 2009 Nielsen survey finds that 46% of American households say they are eating out less. And the sales data supports that statement as value-priced prepared meals at retail are posting double digit increases in supermarkets, supercenters and club stores. Other recessionary strategies include reducing unnecessary spending (27%), driving less (14%), shopping for bargains (13%), using coupons (12%), combining shopping trips (8%), going out less for entertainment (6%) and purchasing more private label goods (5%).

Meaty matters
Supermarkets hold a dominant share position with perishables in the meat and seafood department with a 70% market share. More importantly, shoppers are spending more with grocers. Key factors fueling supermarket meat and seafood sales include promotions—51% of meat and seafood is purchased on sale—and prominent circular placement noted by 41% of shoppers.

Shoppers are trading down, up and side-ways as less expensive non-red-meat and seafood protein options such as turkey, chicken and pork sourced primarily from beef department sales. This trade down is occurring in both fresh and fully cooked product categories. Retailers should offer shoppers ideas to enhance the dinner menu with add-ons such as marinades, sauces and seasonings, which are posting double digit increases on both a dollar and unit basis.

Alternative channels are also making a strong push for this business. Supercenters have done a super job with new perishable formats, growing both the purchase size (up 2% to $11.80) and frequency of perishable purchases (from 18.4 to 18.7 trips per year). This holds true in particular for the meat and seafood departments, where supercenters snagged a 0.6 share point change.

Produce picks
Supermarkets hold an even stronger share of produce with more than 72% of the business and growing, posting a 0.3 share increase versus year ago. Supercenters are turning the competition green with envy capturing 12% of the market. Club stores are still underdeveloped in produce (7.9% share) versus comparable department share levels.

In the produce aisle, shoppers appear to be sticking with core vegetables as tomatoes, potatoes and corn are among the few leading categories posting dollar and unit growth. The same holds true for fruits—shoppers are less likely to experiment these days as specialty and stone fruits are down in favor of tasty favorites such as berries, cherries, grapes and avocados.

Retailers have a unique opportunity via their produce department to build their health and wellness equity and market position. The Natural Marketing Institute has identified 25% of the population as “Well Being” shoppers that are health and wellness focused, do the best job of eating right and use quality as their purchase barometer, not price or brand image. Indeed, the Nielsen sales data affirms these results as these shoppers buy 25% more produce than any other perishable sector and prefer random weight items at their freshness peak.

Deli delights
In deli, where supermarkets hold 50% of the business, all major departments are posting strong growth. Deli cold cuts and cheese are up 7% and prepared foods are up almost 5% versus year ago. Notably, supermarket dollar share erosion has been more severe than other perimeter sectors in this broad but expanding market. However, smaller formats (convenience stores, delicatessens, etc.) that offer shoppers “in and out” convenience are posing the biggest threat to supermarkets. Some of the hottest selling prepared deli items include turkey entrees, pot pies and chicken salad. At the service counter, shoppers are buying American as pre-sliced cheese is posting double-digit unit and dollar sales increases.

Retailers exploring ways to differentiate their brand should turn to the deli department, where service counts, personality shines and the area is generally underdeveloped as a driver of retail brand equity. Adopting an “alternative to eating out” strategy has paid off big time for retailers like Wegmans, which scored well in a 2009 study as a top choice for prepared meals, as well as for offering a wide range of fruits and vegetables, high-quality fresh food, well presented displays and a broad assortment of fresh meat and seafood.

Bakery boom
Retailers should not forget to finish off their meal planning strategies with dessert options. The bakery department is posting the most significant growth of any perishable sector for grocers. And just as Clemenza famously says in The Godfather; “leave the gun, take the cannoli”, that is exactly what shoppers are doing as cannolis are posting strong growth within the cakes, cookies and specialty desserts department. Supercenters are the primary threat to grocery as they have almost 16% share of this market—more than any other perishable department. Similar to deli, club stores are not a major competitor in the service-driven bakery sector, capturing about 7% of the market.

Meal planning
Everybody cooks, but in today’s world, meal planning is maturing on both web-based resources for recipes and TV chefs for inspiration and technique. Nielsen discovered that more than one million viewers watched the Food Network during prime time in 2009—a 16% increase over full-year 2008. Furthermore, meal planning is one of the largest and fastest growing online activities, with the average browser spending roughly 10 minutes online planning meals. Retailers like Meijer have developed special iPhone applications that let shoppers check specials, locate recipes, consider wine pairings, even search from their smart phones for special needs like fat free, dairy free, gluten free and high fiber.

The lead position
What does it take to succeed with perishables? Retail perishable sales leaders share a set of characteristics including heavy penetration across one or more perimeter sectors. The average department penetration among the Top 25 retailers scored 83% for produce, 80% for bakery, 79% for meat and seafood and 65% for deli. Prepared foods represent an area of under-developed potential because of high-growth rates, strong drivers like working parents on tight schedules, and the fact that fewer than one-third of the Top 25 retailers’ customers currently buy prepared items.

Service remains key to succeeding in areas like deli and bakery, where sales outpace meat, seafood and produce. Across the store, the produce section affords the best climate for delivering health and wellness messaging. Even aside from absolute sales potential, prepared foods are unique in their ability to serve as an avenue for differentiating the retail banner. For a playbook on doing it right, turn to trend-setting retailers that have set both the delivery standard and consumer expectations for high-quality prepared meals and the multi-media formula for promoting them.

Free Webinar: The Consumer Returns to the Home

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Date: November 19, 2009 – Time: 12 pm EST/11 am CST

Today’s consumer is realizing that the home is their best resource to stretch a dollar in a difficult economy. The “trade down” from casual dining to home meals has created tremendous growth and brand messaging opportunities in perishable departments and specific center store categories for both retailers and manufacturers. In this session, Nielsen will reveal:

• Who are the new and emerging channel competitors and where are the category opportunities in the meat, produce, deli and bakery departments.
• Which center-store categories create more merchandising synergy with the perimeter.
• Why it is critical that brand advertising strategies stretch beyond the store into the emerging food preparation space.

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Value has become a main focus for Asian shoppers, partly driven by the economic situation and partly as a result of increased retailer activity focused around price and promotions. According to Nielsen’s Asia Pacific Retail and Shopper Trends 2009 Report, more than 70 percent of shoppers claim to have become more price sensitive compared to last year. The effect: shoppers are more inclined to buy only what they need, spending their money on essentials rather than on treats or what they now consider ‘nice-to-haves’. They’re also consciously trying to cut down on the quantity purchased and are actively seeking out products on promotion.

Over the course of 2008 in Asia, grocery markets continued to show volume growth, led by India (+9%), China (+9%) and Vietnam (+18%), with only Taiwan (-7%) experiencing a decline in sales. Value sales increased by double figures in many markets on the back of high inflation for key food categories. But with inflation falling in all markets, we have seen value growth drop sharply in 2009, although overall volume growth in many markets has held up reasonably well with shoppers not cutting back significantly on grocery categories.

Traditional trade continues to lose share

As expected, the traditional counter service trade continued to lose share in Asia, with overall share of trade dropping another percentage point to 47 percent in 2008. At the same time, the absolute number of traditional grocery stores in the region grew by one percent to over 12.3 million stores. In most developed countries, traditional store numbers fell by five percentage points or more. In Korea, where traditional store numbers dropped by nine percentage points, the share of trade decreased from 15.9 to 13.9 percent, while in Taiwan the traditional trade now accounts for just over six percent of sales, having lost 1.5 percent share in the last 12 months.

The retail landscape looks very different in Southeast and South Asia, however, where traditional store numbers actually grew year on year, and even though share of total grocery sales continues to decline slowly, the majority of shoppers in all markets continue to shop at this trade channel. The traditional channel continues to meets shoppers’ needs for everyday convenience, personal service and affordability – being able to buy the smallest sizes and quantities.

Growth of small modern trade outlets

Globally, many large retailers such as Wal-Mart, Tesco and Carrefour have embraced a multi-format strategy that includes the development of smaller neighborhood stores. Similar growth in small modern trade outlets is also being seen across Asia, with mini-markets/small supermarket store numbers increasing by 17 percent in 2008 to over 100,000 stores.

Indonesia has led the way over the last 10 years and in 2008 more than 1,500 new stores opened, taking the total to over 10,500. These stores now account for more than 16 percent of total packaged grocery sales. Shoppers in Indonesia are continuing to embrace the convenient location, relatively good service and acceptably low prices offered at mini-markets.

Retailers in China are also investing in this store format, with store numbers growing by 22 percent in 2008 to more than 70,000 stores, accounting for more than three-quarters of all modern self-service outlets.

In South Korea we are also seeing the leading Hypermarket operators expanding into small supermarket formats, or ‘Super Supermarkets’ as they are known in South Korea. Samsung Tesco is now operating over 150 SSM Homeplus Express stores and E-mart is planning to open 30 or 40 small, 300 square meter E-Mart Everyday stores. The expansion of these large chains into the small store arena has led to concerns regarding competition with small store owners, and the South Korean government is considering introducing a bill to regulate the opening of small supermarkets.

“Trading over the summer has been volatile, but the underlying trend is a slowing of top line value growths.  Food retailers continue to rely on promotions and price cuts to draw in shoppers, a strategy that seems to be working for most chains as penetration has increased,” said Mike Watkins, Senior Manager, Retailer Services at Nielsen.

Waitrose and Morrisons recorded the strongest growth in value sales during the twelve week period (11.4% and 8.1% respectively), while the launch of Tesco’s Clubcard in August has helped increase spend per visit by 5 percent as shoppers seek to maximize spending within the store.

Increases in wine and alcoholic beverages indicate that consumers are opting to consume their favorite beverage at home too. At the same time they are continuing to avoid discretionary items, according to the latest monthly update of U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends from The Nielsen Company.

The non-edible departments were the greatest contributors to an overall 1.2 percent unit sales decline at food, drug and mass-merchandisers, during the 52-week period ending July 11. General merchandise categories suffered most with a decline of 7.9 percent. Non-foods dropped by 3.8 percent and health and beauty aides by 3.5 percent.

Canning and freezing supplies saw the greatest unit sales increases at 18.1 percent followed by seasonal merchandise (8.3 percent), fresh meat (6.2 percent), wine (5.6 percent) and dry mix prepared foods (5.2 percent).

There was also a 3.7 percent unit sales increase in vitamins, a category that typically does well during times of recession as consumers focus on maintaining their own health.

“By and large the categories that are growing the fastest are those related primarily to meal consumption-a notion of back-to-basics,” says Todd Hale, SVP, Consumer and Shopper Insights at Nielsen. “It’s also interesting that the No. 1 item on the list is canning supplies. There’s been resurgence in consumers growing their own fruit and vegetables and canning them.”

Across all departments, dollar sales over the latest 52-weeks experienced a 2.7 percent increase, which was mainly seen in edible department. Fresh meat had the largest increase at 9.7 percent followed by packaged meat (6 percent), dry grocery (5 percent) and alcoholic beverages (4.6 percent). Discretionary departments and the dairy department, which has experienced significant price reductions as a result of falling commodity prices, ranked in at the bottom of the dollar growth scale. Non-foods (3.1 percent) and health and beauty aides (0.1 percent) showed little growth. Dairy (-1 percent) and general merchandise (-5.0) were the only departments reflecting loss.

“As prices for many commodities have dropped this year, retailers are slashing prices broadly to lure shoppers who are very focused on value and low prices,” said Hale. “As their competitors follow suit with price cuts, we are already seeing a number of retailers struggle to maintain positive same-store-sales growth.”

While food staples were also prevalent in the top-15 dollar growth categories, seasonal merchandise and canning and freezing supplies saw the largest increases with 34 percent and 27 percent growth respectively. Dry vegetables and grains, flour, and pasta, all with gains of 18 percent or more, rounded out the top five.

Moving forward, “we’re going to continue to see consumer restraint in terms of where they shop and how they buy,” said Hale. “Food and beverage categories will continue to do reasonably well. Those manufacturers selling discretionary categories are going to have to work very hard to give consumers a reason as to why they should be buying now.”

The “U.S. Store Brand Development” found that both private label dollar and unit sales significantly increased for the 52-week period ending July 11, 2009 versus the prior year.

Dollar sales grew by 7.4 percent to $85.9 billion within food, drug and mass-merchandisers (including Walmart), with shares recorded at 16.9 percent. This reflects an increase of 0.7 points from the previous year. Growth peaked in 2008 but then slowed slightly in 2009 with falling commodity prices and increased retail discounting.

Unit sales similarly experienced high growth during the same period. Sales increased by 5 percent to 39.5 billion units and unit shares rose by 1.3 points (a total of 21.5 percent).

All store brand food and non-food categories experienced better performance versus brands, but edible departments saw the greatest uptick in both dollar and unit sales.

Top dollar growth categories were frozen pizza and snacks (38 percent), flour (36 percent), and dry vegetables and grains (31 percent), and dry grocery and dairy departments accounted for 59 percent of total sales. Baby food (37 percent), candles and incense (23 percent), frozen pizza and snacks (22 percent), cheese (16 percent) and flour (15 percent) topped unit sales.

The importance of food and at-home meals in this down economy has led to strong growth for both branded and private label offerings in some basic food categories such as flour (36 percent store brand growth compared to 17 percent branded), dry vegetables and grains (31 percent to 20 percent), salad dressing and mayo (30 percent and 8 percent), pasta (27 percent to 15 percent) and baking mixes (22 percent and 10 percent).

“When categories are sorted by store brand share, from high to low, some patterns emerge,” said Todd Hale, SVP, Consumer & Shopper Insights at Nielsen. “Store brand performance and share is strongest in commodity categories. Milk, fresh eggs, sugar & substitutes and canned vegetables top the list). Where store brand share is the lowest is among categories where we see strong marketing support for top brands including candy, gum, beer and those where a high-level of innovation occurs like detergents, deodorant, cosmetics.”

These changes present a range of challenges for retailers and consumer goods manufacturers, namely, how to adapt to the new environment and continue to grow while watching costs. 

“The industry is at an inflexion point — a time when new habits are being created — and the next 12 months holds both challenges and opportunities in the grocery channel,” said Chris Percy, Managing Director – Consumer Group, Nielsen Pacific.

Nielsen’s Special Report: Forces of Change explores the changes sweeping the Australian grocery channel. Pulling together a range of exclusive data, the report analyses how Australians are spending their money in a difficult economy, which product categories are showing growth and how marketers and manufacturers need to fully understand their customers, the changes taking place and how to reach their targets more effectively.   

Read Nielsen’s Special Report: Forces of Change, which appeared in the July 20-31 edition of Retail World.

Those affluent households are also making more trips to the grocery, accounting for the largest share (41%) of total basket ring dollars versus middle-income and low-income households. For the past 13 periods, affluent households posted trip growth in every period, while grocery trips by middle-income households were about flat and grocery trips among low-income households were off in all periods.

Affluent households are also driving faster trip growth in value retail channels like supercenters, warehouse clubs and dollar stores, but their overall importance to the sales in each channel ranges from a low of 19% for dollar stores to a high of 57% for warehouse clubs. “We see opportunity to use different assortment, pricing and promotional programs targeted to the ’shopper income’ draw of a particular store. And while value messaging needs to be prominent in these tough times, it can’t all be about low prices,” says Todd Hale, Senior Vice President, Consumer and Shopper Insight.

July 3rd traditionally has the highest sales volume for all three types of meat. Consumers were 50 percent more likely to buy hot dogs during the four-week period ending on July 12, 2008 than any other time over the year. The trend is even more pronounced for bratwurst and knockwurst last year, with consumers 106 percent more likely to buy the thicker sausages during the same period.
Until recently, purchases of bratwurst and knockwurst have been growing, with annual sales rising 8.9 percent between June of 2007 and June of 2009. However, sales of bratwurst and knockwurst by volume have fallen by 6.7 percent over the past two months, ending June 13, 2009, compared to the same period last year.

Sales of hot dogs have seen a marked increase during the past two months, increasing 3.7 percent over the eight-week period ending 6/13/09 compared to the same period the previous year. Considering that hot dogs are the less expensive option, the reversal of these trends may reflect consumers’ tighter BBQ budgets.

As for the beer that consumers will be buying to wash down their dogs, Nielsen predicts that almost two billion servings will be purchased in preparation for the Fourth of July in 2009. Supermarkets are likely to see the biggest increase in consumer purchases across all beer categories, with premium light beer driving almost 35 percent of sales volume.

These were some of the findings from the “Supermarket Pricing Trends” study which looked at pricing of the top-selling items across 45 categories over the course of five years. It concluded by measuring the 12 weeks ending May 16 in total U.S. supermarkets.

Overall, grocery prices continue to inch up 0.44 percent compared to a year ago. The sum of average unit prices across the 45 category-leading items, which included everything from bacon to bleach to buttered crackers and hot dog buns, was $143.65.

Private label items, however, are on the decline. On average, prices for store brands fell 4.7 percent versus last year led by a 23 percent decrease in whole milk and a 27 percent decrease in the cost of a dozen eggs. Some national brands in the dairy aisle are also seeing price declines. Some of these reductions are the result of pricing corrections for items with large price spikes in 2008.

Could this be a sign of more key items with lower prices on the horizon? This hasn’t happened yet, said Tom Pirovano, Director of Industry Insights, The Nielsen Company. “From all of the talk we’re hearing about deflation, it hasn’t happened yet. It’s a little premature because prices for many leading products are continuing to creep up.”

Pirovano notes the average unit price across the 30 category leading branded items grew 3.3 percent to $124.04 compared to the prior year.

One exception has been perishable items like dairy, produce and meats. Eight ounces of national brand cream cheese shrank 10 percent, 64 ounces of a leading orange juice brand can be had for 7 percent cheaper and a national brand of sliced cheese fell 5 percent.

The biggest price decrease was a dozen private label large eggs. Its cost plummeted 27 percent. A gallon of private label whole milk fell 23 percent and private label butter sticks is now 7 percent smaller. These price reductions are likely a result of lower grain prices where it’s less expensive to feed cows and chickens.

The study also highlighted the seasonal nature of pricing. Prices reach their lowest points each year in late spring and early summer. Conversely, prices tend to spike in January.

For the past several months, we’ve seen sales for U.S. store brands grow at unprecedented rates with annual sales of $85.5 billion, up by $13.6 billion (+19%) vs. just two years ago. (Nielsen Grocery/Drug/Mass including Walmart). At first, this growth was driven by higher prices for milk and other commodities. Then the economy got even worse, and many just assumed that shoppers were switching from national brands to store brands to save money.

But what about the other factor we sometimes forget to mention? Could it be that retailers are making significant improvements in the quality of their own store brands? Is it possible that some National Brand Equivalents (NBEs) have really become every bit as good as the national brands? Note: Several years ago, I coined the acronym, “AAGATNB” (Almost As Good As the National Brand), but it never really caught on the way I hoped.

I recently had the opportunity to visit the East View Innovation Center in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, where the folks at SUPERVALU develop brands like Culinary Circle and Wild Harvest. I had been hearing a lot about this state-of-the-art facility with its sensory labs, test kitchens, mock-up store, and army of Daymon associates fully integrated into the organization. Needless to say, I jumped at the opportunity to check it out for myself.

It was clear from the start that the facility itself is just part of the story. SUPERVALU has assembled a dream team of experienced product development specialists from across the industry. Many of the top managers moved to Minnesota from out of state, betting their careers on the success of the “Our Own Brands” program. Every person I talked to that day seemed convinced that they were working on something special. One even commented, “I didn’t come here for the weather.”

The Our Own Brands program at SUPERVALU is an unmistakable source of pride for those working in the East View Innovation Center. When I began discussing recent trends in private label, I was politely corrected by Group VP, Mike Witynski: “This isn’t about labels. We’re building brands here.” He was right. Nowhere did I get the sense that this was simply about making cheap substitutes for national brands. A sense of pride seemed to permeate the building. While touring one of the test kitchens, one associate described a recent blind comparison with a popular national brand: “They’d kill to have our taste test scores!”

I was also impressed by how they view their competition. Many store brands target CPG category leaders. SUPERVALU, however, has broadened its competition to restaurants with several premium “restaurant-quality” products. I was lucky enough to sample some Culinary Circle frozen desserts that could rival the best ice cream parlors. The trick will be getting shoppers to try these products. Although higher price points may present sales challenges, the quality and exclusivity of brands like Culinary Circle have the potential of becoming destination products for consumers who can appreciate the difference.

National brands need to be on their toes. There are no clear signs that shoppers will turn away from store brands as the economy improves. Retailers like SUPERVALU and others are poised to succeed with their own premium brands as consumers continue to adjust their mix of needs between quality, value and convenience. SUPERVALU has set aggressive growth targets for its Own Brands program with an unblinking eye on the consumer. This consumer focus is something new for most store brands. Understanding the shopping experience from a consumer perspective isn’t just for CPG manufacturers anymore.