Responding to a 52 nation survey by the Nielsen Company, close to half (45%) of consumers said they supported efforts by their governments to place trade restraints on foreign imports. Geographically, the percentages were even higher in Latin America (49%), North America (48%) and the combined regions of Asia Pacific, India, Middle East and Africa, where 47% of respondents either strongly agreed or agreed to some forms of protectionist measures.

Europe Not United in its Views

In Europe, however, only 39% consumers surveyed concurred with the proposition; albeit attitudes differed considerably among nations. Citizens of the former Soviet bloc, such as in Hungary (63%), generally scored higher than their western neighbors. Conversely, Nordic countries including Denmark (14%), Finland (20%), Norway (24%) and Sweden (15%) were well below the regional average. Moreover, those in Denmark and Sweden who strongly disagreed or disagreed with trade barriers outnumbered adherents by more than three-to-one; and in Finland, by more than two-to-one.

Protect at Home, Stay Open Abroad

Despite some appreciable support for protectionist policies within their own borders, consumers everywhere were markedly less enthusiastic about such practices in other countries. Indeed, when asked whether foreign governments should place trade restraints on imports, there were 13% fewer respondents who strongly agreed or agreed. The same was true in every region, where levels of support also were down by double digits.

As might be expected, the declines were most dramatic among consumers whose economies are largely export-driven. In Indonesia and Thailand, for example, support for trade barriers fell 31% and 22% respectively when carried out by other countries; while they dropped by 24% and 20% in the Czech Republic and Hungary.

Farms and Fords

Given the broad range of nations engaged in some form of trade restriction – including tariffs, subsidies, anti-dumping rules and “buy local” policies – the industries involved are equally diverse, though none is more universally protected than agriculture.

More than half of respondents in all but three surveyed countries – Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam – believe agriculture should be shielded from foreign imports. Nine of the top 10 nations are in Europe; with six from the former Soviet bloc and a seventh being Russia.

Consumers in North America showed the least support for protecting agriculture from imports, which may seem ironic to the rest of the world, since U.S. spending on farmers has long been a point of contention in World Trade Organization (WTO) talks.

On the other hand, U.S. consumers scored highest among nations wanting to protect their auto industries – not surprising considering the recent national debate surrounding automaker bailouts. However, foreign car companies now account for about a third of all auto production in the United States, and employ nearly 40% of the industry’s workers.

Unemployment and Global Economic Downturn

Although current findings show support for trade restraints, talk of global protectionism still outweighs the reality. But WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy says that could change. Forecasting a 10% slump in the volume of world trade this year – a post-war record – Lamay warns that even if economic activity begins to pick up in parts of the world, unemployment will continue to rise, prompting moves to protect local jobs and industries.

So far, according to Nielsen’s data, slightly more than half (55%) of all consumers in its survey favor hiring practices that treat new immigrants the same as native born or long-term residents; versus only 22% who disagree. Yet, a small percentage more (59%) believe governments should favor those businesses that hire native born or long-term residents; versus 16% who disagree.

One possible explanation may be that consumers distinguish between the practices of private enterprises and those of government. In other words, free markets should treat all people equally, while governments should favor their own citizens – a sentiment that shared across all regions.

View additional results from the survey.

Australia ranked fifth of the 28 markets Nielsen measures, just behind fast-growing developing countries Indonesia, India, the Philippines and Brazil, and well ahead of other developed nations.

Forty-four percent of Aussies believe “now is a good/excellent time to buy the things they want,” second highest of all nations surveyed, and 59 percent described their personal finances as good or excellent.  According to Nielsen Online’s Buzzmetrics service, the number of online discussions mentioning the word “recession” dropped 56 percent between February and June this year.

Despite growing levels of optimism among Australian consumers, there remains an air of caution, with 41 percent saying that they would put extra cash aside in savings and another 40 percent focused on paying off debts.

“Despite increasing confidence, Australians will still think twice about the way they spend their spare dollars until the economy has completely recovered.  The positive news is that Australia, when compared to other developed nations, is in a better position for faster economic recovery,” said Chris Percy, Managing Director – Consumer Group, Nielsen Pacific.

Read the full press release with more results from the survey.

“Job security is the biggest concern for UAE consumers.  However, despite uncertainty levels tripling over the last six months, we are still among the top 10 countries with a comparatively higher perception of local job prospects.  More than one in three UAE consumers perceives their prospects as good or excellent over the next 12 months,” said Piyush Mathur, regional managing director, Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan at Nielsen.

In comparison, about a quarter of global consumers described their job prospects as bad in the coming year, with Latvians being particularly pessimistic – 78 percent responded negatively.

“Job concerns reflect in consumer spending habits.  For instance, consumers in the UAE are now tending to keep their spare cash in savings and using it to pay off their debts.  They are controlling discretionary spending, especially on clothing, entertainment outside the home and technology upgrades,” said Mathur.

“Although consumers are still not shopping as frequently, we are seeing a turnaround in spending as shoppers spend more money per trip,” said James Russo, Vice President, Global Consumer Insights for The Nielsen Company. “There continues to be the emergence of optimism worldwide, and this upward trend in spending across four leading economies is further evidence that the ‘green shoots’ of economic recovery are finally breaking through. We expect to see even more forward momentum as we look to the second half of 2009.”

Noteworthy Trends

• Scores of six out of 10 GDP countries remained flat from the previous month and no country declined for the first time in four months, hopeful signs that the global economy is stabilizing as consumer confidence cautiously begins to turn up.
• The United States’ score saw a strong rebound from declines in March, up to a 2 (growth of 1% to 4%) from a 5 (as much as 4% decline). The lift is further evidence that the U.S. consumer market may have bottomed out and we will start to see modest gains in spending going forward. (Seasonality is partially a factor due to Easter falling in March last year and April this year.) While consumers are spending more money per shopping trip, they are still shopping cautiously, shifting to value channels like Target and Costco, and to private label store brands.
• India held steady, while China strengthened its score considerably, moving to a 1 (up to 5% growth) from a 3 (flat growth), a result of a massive stimulus and strong dollar and unit sales growth. This is a particularly hopeful sign given that China and India are best positioned, as the world’s leading economies, to be the leaders in a global recovery, based on export and domestic goods demand.
• Canada continued to show moderate levels of consumer spending growth, with a score of 1 (up to 5%), up from 2 (growth of 1% to 4%). Data this month shows that Canadian shoppers are spending more money per trip, possibly a result of retailers running more promotional sales to entice shoppers to stock up on goods.
• Western Europe remains in a neutral position, not showing significant fluctuations in consumer activity. Despite rising unemployment, the vast majority of consumers have regular income, which means that many are saving more.

Download the latest Nielsen Economic Current.

Download the Nielsen Economic Current media release.

In the past six months, the index has plummeted to a record low 77 points from 84 points. The catalyst: Latin America, Russia and other emerging nations are now feeling the full effects of a recession that began in the United States, officially, in December.

Though consumer anxieties about the economy take many forms, the most widespread fear centers on job loss. For the first time in the Nielsen survey, it was global consumers’ top concern, ranking No. 1 in 31 out of 50 countries surveyed.

Six months ago, only 9 percent of respondents cited job security as their primary worry. Now, nearly a quarter (22 percent) indicated they were more worried about going without a paycheck than over issues like work/life balance and the economy overall.

“With global redundancies affecting every industry, the economy and job security have eclipsed all other concerns in life today,” said James Russo, Vice President of Global Consumer Insights at The Nielsen Company.

Declining confidence has changed spending habits, with 70 percent saying they have taken steps to save on household expenses. Purchases of new clothes and out-of-home entertainment are the biggest casualties, with 56 percent and 53 percent of respondents cutting spending in those areas respectively. Forty-five percent have cut down on takeout meals, and 41 percent have switched to less expensive groceries.

Even when the economy improves, 40 percent will continue to try to save on gas and electricity, down from 45 percent economizing in that area now. And more than 20 percent will continue to look for less expensive groceries, cut down on takeout meals and buy fewer new clothes.

U.S. Confident, But Not as Much as China

In contrast to global worries, the confidence of U.S. consumers dropped only slightly, to a score of 80 from 82 and 83 for the second and first halves of 2008, respectively. (For the sake of reference, overall U.S. consumer confidence indexed at 100 during the second half of 2007.)

The modest U.S. decline may be a harbinger of better times. “We may be at, or at least very near, a bottom in this economic cycle,” Russo said. “Specifically in the U.S., while [consumers are] clearly adjusting their spending and savings, with 40 percent stating they are paying off debts and putting into savings. Americans are increasingly optimistic.”

Indeed, nearly 20 percent of Americans polled predicted an economic recovery within the next 12 months. Internationally, nearly one in five (23 percent) said their countries will emerge from the recession within a year. The Vietnamese and Indians made this prediction most frequently, with response rates of 60 percent and 56 percent, respectively.

Despite consumer confidence falling overall, the survey revealed interesting disparities among respondent nations. Consumers in Indonesia, Denmark and India seemed to be the most optimistic, with confidence ratings of 104, 102 and 99, respectively. Still, 77 percent of those polled across the globe indicated their homelands were in recession, up from 63 percent who said the same thing six months ago. Surprisingly, 65 percent of Chinese respondents denied there was any recession in progress at all.

“While China’s economy has undoubtedly slowed, February retail sales are still 15 percent up on last year and many Chinese consumers now believe the next 12 months could be a good time to go back to investing in stocks and property,” said Chris Morley, managing director, The Nielsen Company China.

Nonetheless, the weight of currency devaluations, weak export markets and falling commodity prices caused emerging markets like Russia (down 29 points to 74), UAE (down 21 points to 89) and Brazil’s (down 15 points to 82) to turn in consumer-confidence figures that had plummeted significantly. Consumers were the most pessimistic in South Korea, with consumer confidence score of 31, Japan (42) and Latvia (48).

Perhaps the survey’s most telling finding was that Latin America has seen its confidence shaken. “Six months ago as developed markets hurtled towards the epicenter of a global recession, Latin America was the world’s most optimistic region,” Russo said. “However, it hasn’t taken long for the tentacles of the global recession to reach them.”

The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index, compiled twice a year, tracks spending habits and concerns among 25,420 Internet users across 50 countries. Respondents were surveyed between March 19 and April 2.

Download the report.

• Market Index volume, in terms of unit and country currency change
• Retail channel shifting
• Shopping frequency and spending trends
• Overall consumer confidence

“Nielsen collects and analyzes data on tens of thousands of products around the world. As we were thinking of new ways to leverage this valuable resource, we thought it would be useful to summarize this information and create a monthly snapshot of consumer and retail trends across the globe. We expect that the Nielsen Economic Current will provide our clients and others with another valuable tool for evaluating these trends at both a macro- and microeconomic level,” said Todd Hale, Senior Vice President, Consumer & Shopper Insights at Nielsen.

In addition to global and regional components, the Economic Current will follow trends in eleven countries representing over 70 percent of Global GDP.  Countries were chosen based on their importance to the overall global economy as well as countries where Nielsen captures a broad set of consumer, retail and media content. The countries which the Economic Current will track on an individual basis are:

• United States
• Canada
• France
• Germany
• United Kingdom
• Italy
• Spain
• Brazil
• Russia
• India
• China

Over the course of the next week, Nielsen Wire will feature brief summaries on key sections of the latest edition of the Economic Current. In the months ahead, new editions of the Economic Current will be supplemented with podcasts by senior executives and analysts who will provide further insight on global consumer trends.

For the complete report, click here.

Results of a global happiness survey from The Nielsen Company reveal that men are happier with money, while women are happier with friendships and relationships with their children, co-workers and bosses.

“Because they are happier with non-economic factors, women’s happiness is more recession-proof, which might explain why women around the world are happier in general than men are,” said Bruce Paul, VP Consumer Research, US, The Nielsen Company.

The 51-country Nielsen Happiness Study, which polled 28,153 respondents online in May 2008, found that globally, women are happier than men in 48 of the 51 countries surveyed, and only in Brazil, South Africa and Vietnam were men found to be happier than women. Japanese women reported the greatest difference and are 15 percent happier than Japanese men. Women are also more optimistic about the future, scoring higher than men on predictions of their happiness in the next six months.

Globally, women were also happier with their sex lives although men were generally happier with their spouses. Japanese and New Zealand women reported the greatest difference in satisfaction with their sex lives.

View the full press release.

Read Retuers’ coverage of Nielsen’s findings.