While more consumers are expected to head into the holiday season with the intent to buy compared to last year, expect the shopping to be subdued and value-focused. The Nielsen Company predicts consumer holiday spending to closely reflect 2009 spending with flat dollar sales at approximately $89 billion, and flat to declining unit sales, down 0.15 percent. This year’s holiday forecast follows two previous seasons where Nielsen’s predictions on unit and dollar sales fell within 1.5% of actual results.

Consumers are concerned about the jobless recovery and managing their personal finances. As a result, they are closely planning their spending and continue to reduce their shopping trips while placing more emphasis on value. Fewer shopping trips make every retail interaction critical this holiday season and retailers need to turn this increased, but restrained, optimism into sales.

Taking into account more than 500 category-level forecasts of core items sold across the food, drug and mass channels, including Walmart, coupled with Nielsen’s September 2010 survey of close to 25,000 demographically representative U.S. households, below is a list of what retailers and manufacturers can likely expect this holiday season:

Making a List . . . and Buying
More consumers plan to buy this holiday season, with 36 percent telling Nielsen they will spend less, compared to 42 percent in 2009.

Holiday Winners and Losers
Value retailers will attract shoppers, but online retailers will see the biggest surge. Unlike 2009, consumers express moderate interest in spending more across a broad spectrum of retail channels, such as consumer electronic, pet, liquor, department, convenience/gas and home improvement stores. Consumers plan to spend less this year in mass merchandiser stores, while plans for spending in supercenters, club, grocery, toy, book and office supply stores remain flat.

Who Shops Where?
Consumers earning $70K, as well as those earning $100K or more, will drive online store visits. Dollar store visits will be driven by consumers with incomes $50K and less, which is an increasingly higher income shopper than previous years. All income segments will be attracted to mass merchandisers, supercenters and club stores.

Earn Less, Plan to Spend More
Increases in consumers’ holiday spending is driven by lower income consumers, with six percent of those households earning less than $20K planning to spend more, compared to four percent of higher income households ($100k+) planning to do so.

What’s Hot
Nielsen predicts a strong season for technology products and gift cards, with some possible upside surprises in discretionary items such as apparel, toys, videogames, books and even vacations, especially among upper income households ($100K+).

What’s Warm
Discretionary items such as jewelry and DVDs are forecasted to see a slight uptick, as consumers express a desire to spend more on these items. What’s not? Consumer spending on sporting goods, CDs, cookware, and bed and bath items will be flat.

Consumers Buying and Watching
Consumers are spending a considerable amount of time in front of the TV during  the weeks surrounding the holidays, with the week between Christmas and New Year’s ranked as the top week for overall live television viewing, using a DVD player and playing video games. The week of and the two weeks following Thanksgiving rank among the top ten weeks for men’s TV viewing, a consideration for retailers to take into account when planning their media buys.

Consumers’ desire for value continues into this year’s holiday season. In this new normal however, consumers have redefined value. Value is not about price, it’s about the balance between price and benefits. Retail channels offering a clear value proposition and those that focus on consumers’ desire to plan as they manage personal finances, such as online stores, will do well. More and more, it’s about capitalizing on the interactions with an increasingly savvy—and at times disloyal—consumer. Those value propositions tailored around benefits beyond price will resonate with consumers.

Although retailers have been thinking about the 2009 holiday season since last January, consumers are just starting to think about their holiday plans. As we do every year, Nielsen fielded its annual holiday retail survey at the beginning of this month to get an understanding of consumers’ holiday shopping plans.  While the economy appears to be improving at a snail’s pace, it’s apparent that many consumers intend to spend less and save more this holiday season. In fact, some 42 percent of respondents stated that compared to a year ago they were planning on spending less money on holiday gifts, compared with only 4 percent who intend to spend more.

An even more surprising trend is that of the money that consumers plan to spend this holiday season, a smaller percentage will be spent online: 63 percent of survey respondents said that they would do at least some holiday shopping online, down 10 points from two years ago. Meanwhile, 7 percent of respondents said they would not do any shopping online compared to just 1 percent in 2007.

Consumers Expect to Spend Less Money Online this Year

Among those that do plan to shop online this holiday season, many consumers expect to spend significantly less than last year. In 2008, 42 percent answered that they would spend more than $300 online during the holiday season. This year, that percentage has dropped to just 31 percent, while 22 percent of respondents said that they are going to spend less than $100 online.

So why do some consumers shop online? Interestingly, the main reason is not to save money, but for convenience. Respondents said the top reason they would shop online was the ability to shop whenever they wanted, followed closely by the ability to avoid the large crowds associated with holiday shopping.

While consumers appear to no longer view the Internet as a value channel, they still see it as a place to do comparison shopping, find coupons and do research. And it’s not just consumers coming from lower household incomes–shoppers of all ages and income levels rely on the Internet to inform their in-store purchases. In October 2009, over one-third of the U.S. online population visited at least one deal-oriented Web site.

Although many consumers don’t feel that they save money by making purchases online, they do view the Internet as a deal-seeking venue. When asked how they use the Internet before going shopping in physical stores, 55 percent of respondents said they use the Internet to compare prices across retailers and 49 percent answered that they use the Web to learn about sales and promotions available in physical stores.

It is clear that while the majority of all purchases continue to take place offline, the Internet has an important role to play—deals found online impact holiday purchase decisions and drive purchases at brick and mortar locations.

For more information and insights on the 2009 holiday season, download our recent webinar,2009 Holiday Retail Season: What Consumers Have in Store for Retailers this Season.

The Xbox 360 garnered the largest share of online buzz between November 1 and December 9, with 41.6% of blog messages mentioning Xbox, Wii or Playstation.

In comparison, Nintendo’s Wii was mentioned in 29.8% of game console blog messages, while Sony’s Playstation ranked third with mentions in 28.6% of gaming-related blog posts.

Among gift-related online buzz, TV-related terms, mentioned in 52.5% of gift-related messages, dominated blogosphere chatter.

DVDs (24.4% share), toys (11.3% share), laptops (8.4% share), and GPS (3.4% share) rounded out the select five gift ideas.

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