Is the Super Bowl the ultimate marketing ecosystem of paid and earned media? 2010 will be huge test, as the new reality of consumer expression and cross-platform integration create a powerful new dynamic hovering over the largest single-spot ad spend on record.

What marketers urgently need to understand is not only total ROI on that mega-media buy, but the full return on all the other activities triggered or reinforced by this paid media stimulus. How does paid media drive earned media? And to what degree does earned media halo future paid media efforts? These are critical questions that Marketers need answers to – along with a metric or common yardstick that quantifies the blending of the two.

Getting Real about Real-Time
In an more agile and flexible marketing environment, where there’s actually a chance of making real-time changes based on available data, marketers need to understand the real-time role they can play in making tactical interventions to grow earned media impressions and ultimately, increase odds of success.

Twitter brings a fresh dynamic and promise to Super Bowl media efficiency. The platform reached a reach tipping point in 2009 – so much so that marketers increasingly use it to fan the flames for events, interact with brand mavens or enthusiasts, and, in a growing number of cases, manage or sandbag tension points like customer disappointment or service shortfalls.

Tweets are also increasingly embedding themselves in Facebook feeds, blog entries, and Google search results, magnifying their long-term value. Translated to the Super Bowl, positive playback about Super Bowl ads can have a “latency” effect and provide brands with an almost endless annuity of “earned media.” The same dynamic will be at work with Facebook brand fan pages, which can see massive growth – hundreds of thousands – following a major ad campaign, offline or online.

Quantifying the Big Picture
In the end, Super Bowl spots today need to meet two distinct “torture” tests – one measurable based on traditional TV scoring, and another based on unique dynamics of cross-platform engagement, most notably word-of-mouth and conversation. On a pure TV-impression alone, one can argue that the Super Bowl has become such an unusual magnet for consumer attention and recall – the one day of the year that we “celebrate” advertising – that it is worth every penny. Indeed, curiosity, anticipation, guessing, nostalgia come into play big time before this festival of brand persuasion. Consumers, after all, want to see the ads, almost akin to seeing a movie.

The entertainment halo certainly matters. Over the last three years, Nielsen IAG research found Super Bowl spots achieved a 31% higher break-through and 93% higher likability than the typical ad on television. But it’s not that simple. Timing is also a factor. First and second quarter spots yield more yardage than second half spots, and 4th quarter spots are about comparable to a “normal” TV buy in terms of generating ad recall. The viewer’s ability to associate the correct brand with the ad, and reported likability levels similarly wane over the course of the game. Surprisingly, branded integration effectiveness shows an opposite trend. Recall and brand opinion are lowest pre-game, moderate during the game, and big gainers post game. For Marketers, the mix is clear: focus on ads early and branded integration efforts late. Lastly, the SuperBowl is a touchdown for brands generally: purchase consideration for the average ad the week after increases +13% versus the week prior.

So that’s the foundation of pure “paid” measurements. What about the “earned” side of the equation, which factors in free media, consumer conversation, participation, and the like? Clearly, the Super Bowl in particular shines light across a far more complicated mix of marketing activity and user-engagement. Great copy finds life in other places.

An engaging, even participatory Pepsi game spot, for instance, might trigger a site visit, a Google search, a tweet, retweet, fan-page sign-up, or DVR rewind. It might trigger a desire to share, forward, discuss, critique, rate, or review. It might bleed over into the social media stream of a New York Times or any media reporter (a growing number of whom leverage social media across all platforms.)

The good news is that this digital trail can be quantified with high levels of precision – by volume, reach, tone, source, or even depth of brand advocacy. And much of this can be delivered in real-time, empowering today’s brand manager to make real-time changes or adjustments to the site. Last year, for instance, a large percentage of brands buying spots on the Super Bowl made real-time adjustments to their websites or social media efforts based on pre-game variables.

This year, Frito-Lay’s Doritos brand sits on the extreme of early-adjustments, as the four spots they are running are sourced from user-participation events and contests. In this case, the “earned media” is stimulating the paid side of the equation. Then again, this can work in reverse. When P&G’s Tide brand ran a highly engaging “Talking Stain” spot two years ago, it triggered a user-generated contest that created an impressive annuity of online video that quickly reshaped the brand’s search results for the better. Three years ago, Nationwide insurance estimated that the “earned media” dividend from their Kevin Federline spot totaled over $20 million dollars.

So in the end, it’s just not as simple as “buying” high-reach media. The broader ecosystems truly matter. This year, Nielsen is putting its biggest effort into measuring and quantifying the full return of Super Bowl advertising, combining a comprehensive suite of paid media and earned media metrics into a total “engagement” score. And we don’t intend to stop at the Super Bowl. Over the course of 2010, we’ll be applying our new cross-platform engagement metrics across our work on the Winter Olympics, Academy Awards, and the World Cup.

Webinar: Learn more about Nielsen’s comprehensive approach to the Super Bowl. Join Pete Blackshaw and Randall Beard for a webinar Maximizing Advertising ROI in a Paid vs. Earned Media Environment on December 8 at 2:00PM EST.

The pros aren’t the only ones enjoying the spoils of America’s pigskin passion. Among college football’s marquee games this past weekend, USC-OHIO St. delivered ESPN 10.6 million viewers on Saturday, the largest cable audience for a regular or post-season college football game ever.  And Notre Dame-Michigan was seen by 8.4 million viewers, up 58% from the two schools’ match up last year.

NFC Rival Philadelphia Eagles were second in terms of total buzz volume, due in part to their signing of Michael Vick, who was atop the list of NFL player buzz.  This summer saw his release from prison, his reinstatement to the league, and his signing with the Eagles, and fans not shy about voicing their opinion on both sides of the issue.

In terms of television viewership, Pittsburgh, which kicked off this year’s season with Tennessee, continued to live up to its reputation as a football-crazed city, with the Steelers leading all teams in local markets ratings last season on their way to the Super Bowl. During 16 regular season games, the six-time Super Bowl champs were watched on average by 36.8% of Pittsburgh households.

[update: For the season opener on 9/10/09 - the Steelers' hometown viewership was 49.6%]

Last Thursday, when the Eagles announced the signing of Michael Vick during a preseason game, it set off a media storm locally and nationally. The game itself was seen by 647,000 viewers in Philadelphia, a 63% increase over the Eagles’ first pre-season game in 2008. Recent online buzz was also high. According to Nielsen Buzzmetrics, the August buzz surrounding Vick overshadowed chatter following his release from prison earlier in the year.

Whether or not Michael Vick is able to rehabilitate his image, the best news for the Eagles may be that despite a risky signing, reports say they have retained all of their corporate sponsors. In fact, Vick has already had an indirect affect on the exposure of Eagles sponsors: his press conference delivered exposure time not only for the backdrop sponsor, but also for the naming rights sponsor of the Eagles’ practice facility which hosted the event.

Just as the buzz began to subside around Michael Vick, news broke on Tuesday afternoon that Brett Favre, after stating more than once that he’d stay retired, was on a plane to the Minnesota Vikings’ training camp, pushing online discussion to levels nearly as high as Michael Vick. Favre’s press conference was seen live on national cable and local broadcast television.

Minnesota television is still buzzing. “Brett Favre” was referenced 452 times on TV in the market alone on August 18-19, according to Nielsen Grabix, which monitors closed captioning. The Vikings and their sponsors are no doubt hoping that the increased interest Favre brings will translate to more eyeballs for their ads and signage. Last year, in his first “un-retirement” with the NY Jets, Favre contributed to a 17% boost in New York viewership compared to the year prior.

With these two signings Philadelphia and Minnesota proved that they were teams willing to take calculated risks which delivered increased exposure for their sponsors, and they hope in the end, a Super Bowl.

• Madden NFL 10 dominates the sports genre in several metrics, including unaided and aided awareness and definite purchase interest among active gamers.

• Unaided awareness for Madden NFL 10 for the week of August 2nd is a very robust 14% overall and a whopping 31% among Males 18 to 24. The next highest title mentioned during the same time period, Wii Sports Resort (released July 26), has roughly half the unaided awareness among active gamers (8%).

Platform Preference & Age Differences

• In terms of platform preference, 30% of over 9,200 gamers interested in purchasing Madden NFL 10 indicate Xbox 360 as their system of choice. This outpaces PS3 (23%), PS2 (20%) and Wii (17%).
• In terms of age, younger gamers (13 to 24) over-index for the Xbox 360 version, with the PS3 skewing older (18 to 34). Gamers 35 to 54 indicate Wii as their preferred platform (24%) just above Xbox 360 (23%), PS2 (22%) and PS3 (19%).
• Among the always desirable male 18 to 24 gamers, Xbox 360 had the highest platform choice for Madden NFL 10 at 42%, with PS3 (28%) and PS2 (15%) following behind.

Purchase Urgency – Some like it hot… (off the presses)

• 22% of gamers interested in purchasing Madden NFL 10 indicate they would either pre-order the game or buy it during the first week of its release. Another 29% indicated they would buy it in new condition after the first week of release, showing that over 50% of interested gamers have a high urgency to purchase the game early.

Last year, more than five million viewers tuned in to watch a draft where an offensive tackle (Jake Long) who had already agreed to a deal earlier in the week with Miami was drafted by the Dolphins as the number one pick. That’s almost two million more viewers than in 2002 when the Houston Texans drafted top pick David Carr, whom the franchise hoped would be their star quarterback for years to come.

The NFL moved the start time of last year’s draft from noon to 3:00pm ET in an attempt to tantalize avid fans with more pre-draft coverage and to attract casual viewers who don’t want to spend one of the first warm weather afternoons indoors. The impact was negligible. Change in viewership for the first first few hours of last year’s draft was relatively flat compared to the year before.

This year, the league is moving the start of the draft to 4:00pm ET, meaning even more of the first round will air in primetime on the East Coast. Meanwhile, fans on the West Coast can catch the first pick at 1:00pm PT, instead of a 9:00am start just two years ago.

The high mark for draft viewership came in 2006, when an average of 5.3 million viewers saw Mario Williams lead a star-studded draft class that included Reggie Bush, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Jay Cutler.

NFL Draft Ratings 2002-2008

BlogPulse Buzz on Five Key Players Entering The Draft

According to Nielsen’s annual report on Super Bowl advertising and overall viewing, an average of 98.7 million U.S. viewers tuned in to the game.  Almost 152 million people watched the last six minutes of the game, giving it the largest reach by a TV event ever.

Other key findings include:

• Total commercial airtime during the game was 38 minutes and 5 seconds, and 48 unique brands competed for viewers’ attention.

• The most-liked ad was Budweiser’s spot featuring a Clydesdale competing with a Dalmation in a game of fetch.  This was also the most-recalled ad of the game.  Altogether, Anheuser-Busch produced three of the most recalled ads.

• Emotional and feel-good ads from Budweiser and Pedigree resounded with women, while med tended to like humorous commercials from Pepsi and Doritos.

• Locally, Pittsburgh had the #1 Metered Market performance with a 53.5 household rating, while Phoenix was #9 with a 47.5 household rating.

Nielsen’s complete press release about its annual report on Super Bowl advertising and viewing with more detailed stats and data can be viewed here.

View commercials, storyboards, and ratings from the Super Bowl since 1999, via Monitor Plus.

• In terms of DMA’s (Designated Market Area), Phoenix is ranked 12th and Pittsburgh 23^rd of the 56 metered markets. The 2006 Super Bowl featured a similar match-up with Seattle, ranked the 13^th largest DMA, against Pittsburgh, then 22^nd. That game received a 57.4 rating in Pittsburgh and 54.4 in Seattle (compared to 41.6 nationally).

• From 1999-2008, the highest single-year metered market performance was delivered in Jacksonville in 2005 (NE-PHI played in Jacksonville) with a 58.9 HH rating. For a participating team’s market, Atlanta owns the largest HH rating with a 58.2 in 1999 (DEN-ATL). Over the past decade, the Kansas City DMA has averaged the highest household rating, with 49.5% of television households tuning in to the Super Bowl each year (see chart below).

• Last year’s thrilling Super Bowl owes a large part of its record-breaking ratings’ success to a late-game viewer surge. At 10:02 PM, the final minute of the game, viewership peaked at a 51.3 HH rating, 72 share and over 112 million viewers. The final 30 minutes of the broadcast delivered a 47.5 HH rating. This was a 13% increase compared to all prior minutes (42.0).

• Since 2002, every Super Bowl has had its highest rating point occur in the 4^th quarter and - in all but one instance - after 10PM ET (the Bears-Colts ended at 9:57PM ET). Additionally, Super Bowls that went down to the wire (NE-STL, NE-CAR, NYG-NE) experience a late increase in share percent, while games that were less competitive (TB-OAK, NE-PHI, PITT-SEA, IND-CHI) had share levels that were flat or declining in the final half hour.

• The Super Bowl ratings are higher in HD households. Last year’s game received a 56.5 rating in HD capable/receivable homes. These homes over-indexed the composite HH rating by 31%.

UPDATE: The chart below has been updated to reflect Super Bowl XLIII’s ratings

Read Nielsen’s complete Super Bowl report.