Shoppers around the world took many steps to stretch their budgets during the recession such as eating at home more frequently or cutting back on vacations.  While improving economies may prompt consumers to return to restaurants or take a vacation, one trend that looks likely to remain—and perhaps even grow—is the shift to private label goods.

A 2010 global online survey conducted by The Nielsen Company reveals that 60% of consumers across 55 countries from Asia Pacific, Europe, North America, Latin America and Middle East/Africa (consisting of countries from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and South Africa), say they are stocking cupboards with more store brands as a result of the economic downturn. Across the regions, Latin America led the way at 66% and the Middle East/Africa/Pakistan area trailed at 51%.

The highest levels of private label purchase intent during the economic downturn were reported by consumers in Colombia, Spain, Portugal and Greece at 80%, 79%, 74% and 70% respectively, reflecting recessionary realities, depressed export activity and raging deficits. Meanwhile, the lowest reported drift toward private label came from consumers in Sweden (70%), Thailand (62%), Hong Kong (60%) and Denmark (59%) who indicated they did not purchase more store brands during the recession.

While econometric pressures are driving many value-oriented consumer shopping decisions, it is just one factor influencing private label purchasing. A strong push from retailers and improvements in both quality and selection are contributing factors. It should also be noted that not all private label categories are alike. Store brand share varies widely by category and they still represent the minority stake when compared to premium brands.

Store brand share is typically strongest in commodity categories like milk, fresh eggs, rice, edible oil, vinegar and sugar/substitutes or in those with little differentiation (first aid and wrapping materials). Store brand share is usually the lowest among categories where there is strong marketing support for top brands (e.g., candy, gum, beer) and those where a high-level of innovation occurs (e.g., detergents, deodorant, cosmetics).

Staying Power
Fully 88% of shoppers globally said they intend to keep buying private label even after the economy improves, suggesting that store brand quality has reached parity with national brands and delivers on consumer expectations. While Latin American and Middle East/Africa levels were slightly less than the global average at 83% and 79% respectively, the overwhelming majority still intended to pursue a value strategy.

Countries with the most value-conscious consumers on the private label dimension included Austria, Germany and Sweden, all registering a better than 95% intent to continue purchasing private label, while more than one-quarter of shoppers in the Ukraine (31%), Pakistan (28%), the United Arab Emirates (27%) and Venezuela (27%) had no intention to buy private label in the future.

The economic downturn prompted many consumers to try private label goods for the first time, and once they did so, they discovered that not only was the pricing right, but the quality of the goods met or exceeded expectations. Regardless of the pace of economic recovery, retailers continue to have a tremendous opportunity to convert shoppers to private label for the long term.

Regional Round-Up

Asia Pacific
In most Asian markets, private label is still relatively undeveloped with only Hong Kong having a share above 5% overall. There has been significant investment by many leading retail chains into launching new private label products over the last five years and they are gaining acceptance particularly in the basic commodity categories. In these categories, such as cooking oil, rice, bathroom tissue, market shares can reach up to between 20% and 30% in some countries.

Asian consumers are still largely brand loyal and retailers will need to increase their private label marketing support to build consumer trust in their own brands. During the economic downturn in 2009, there was strong private label growth in many countries. For example, in Thailand, private label grew by over 25%, as shoppers increasingly looked for value when buying grocery products.

In the Pacific markets of Australia and New Zealand, private label is much more established with the majority of households regularly purchasing private label products, which account for up to one-quarter of all supermarket sales.

Latin America
Private label continues to have a stable presence in the region. In Chile, store brands represent 8.4% of the market as of April 2010. Market share remained relatively flat in Argentina and Mexico, reporting shares of 7.6% and 6.6% respectively during the rolling year ending April 2010. While Mexico’s private label market share was flat, sales grew 23% compared with the previous period (April 2009). Store brands in Brazil have 4.9% of importance (YTD April 2010).

The categories where private label market share are strongest varies dramatically by country. In Argentina, the top five categories are dominated by foods such as fish, pasta, ice cream and vegetables, while in Chile, four out of the top five are non-food categories (clothes hooks, candles, pots/pans and cotton swabs). In Mexico, sugar and pies hold the greatest market share, but disposable plates, glasses and place settings round out the top five.

Europe
Private label continues to show solid performance in most European nations, with Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Germany leading the way reporting 2009 store brand value shares of 46%, 43% and 32% respectively. While year-over-year growth was relatively flat or minimal, Turkey and Spain boasted the biggest year-over-year increases of 2.7% and 2.5% respectively.

North America
Private label has taken off in the U.S. For year ending July 2010, store brand unit sales reached an average 22% share across all departments, with share gains in all but dairy. Store brand unit shares range from a high of 40% in the dairy department to a low of less than 1% in alcoholic beverages.

In Canada, private label represented $11.4 billion in national sales for year ending July 2010, which is 18.3% of overall consumer packaged goods spend. Over the past year, private label share has declined slightly with overall dollar sales flat, while the total market increased +3%.

Middle East
Middle Eastern consumption patterns often run counter to the West for a variety of reasons, and respondents in the region indicated the least likelihood of purchasing private label today or after economic recovery. However, as awareness has increased over the last few years, volume is growing—albeit from a very small base. While only 18% of shoppers in the United Arab Emirates perceive private label as a better value for the money, certain categories such as household cleaners are regarded more favorably. Fully, one-fourth (26%) of shoppers in Saudi Arabia consider these store brands as worthy.

Note about online survey methodology
While online survey methodology allows for tremendous scale and global reach, it provides the perspectives on the habits of existing Internet users, not total populations. Where noted, the Nielsen Global Online Survey data is supplemented with measurement of private label consumption by market.

In a June 2009 survey, 57 percent of consumers said that they had been switching to private label goods over the past year, and more than a third said that they would continue to purchase them even when economic conditions improve.  Younger households were most likely to indicate an affinity for private label products.

“The younger generation would probably not have experienced the old world of private label with questionable quality, limited range and bland packaging. They see private label as a very compelling alternative to proprietary branded goods.  Private label products have yet to realize the gains experienced in Europe and North America, but this generation is likely to drive growth in the sector in the coming decades,” said Kosta Conomos, Executive Director – Retailer Services, Nielsen Pacific.

Read the full press release.

Australia ranked fifth of the 28 markets Nielsen measures, just behind fast-growing developing countries Indonesia, India, the Philippines and Brazil, and well ahead of other developed nations.

Forty-four percent of Aussies believe “now is a good/excellent time to buy the things they want,” second highest of all nations surveyed, and 59 percent described their personal finances as good or excellent.  According to Nielsen Online’s Buzzmetrics service, the number of online discussions mentioning the word “recession” dropped 56 percent between February and June this year.

Despite growing levels of optimism among Australian consumers, there remains an air of caution, with 41 percent saying that they would put extra cash aside in savings and another 40 percent focused on paying off debts.

“Despite increasing confidence, Australians will still think twice about the way they spend their spare dollars until the economy has completely recovered.  The positive news is that Australia, when compared to other developed nations, is in a better position for faster economic recovery,” said Chris Percy, Managing Director – Consumer Group, Nielsen Pacific.

Read the full press release with more results from the survey.

These changes present a range of challenges for retailers and consumer goods manufacturers, namely, how to adapt to the new environment and continue to grow while watching costs. 

“The industry is at an inflexion point — a time when new habits are being created — and the next 12 months holds both challenges and opportunities in the grocery channel,” said Chris Percy, Managing Director – Consumer Group, Nielsen Pacific.

Nielsen’s Special Report: Forces of Change explores the changes sweeping the Australian grocery channel. Pulling together a range of exclusive data, the report analyses how Australians are spending their money in a difficult economy, which product categories are showing growth and how marketers and manufacturers need to fully understand their customers, the changes taking place and how to reach their targets more effectively.   

Read Nielsen’s Special Report: Forces of Change, which appeared in the July 20-31 edition of Retail World.

The middle of summer marks the beginning of the Back to School (BTS) season, as parents and kids across the country start to prepare to return to class rooms in late August and early September.  The excitement of school starting isn’t just felt by the kids – retailers also look forward to the season, as it’s an incredibly important time for the $2.5 billion office/school supplies category.  Additionally, with the economy mired in a steep recession this season, the BTS season will be closely watched for signs of a recovery in spending. Half of annual unit sales of some related products occur during the BTS period, accounting for 36-38 percent of annual revenue.

This year, as the US continues to be in the grips of recession, Nielsen is forecasting a dollar sales rise of 0.4 to 1.3 percent, to $2.17 billion, a pace below the growth achieved in 2008.  Unit sales will drop to 1.18 billion, down 5.5 percent from 2008.

In 2008, Nielsen predicted that dollar sales of BTS supplies would rise 2.6 percent; the actual result was 2.4 percent.

“Unlike the winter holidays, back to school shopping, to some extent, is not viewed as discretionary by consumers. Kids must have certain items at the start of the new school year.  That said, we expect sales to increase at an extremely modest level in dollar terms in 2009.  The nation is firmly in the midst of recession, so consumers will spend their money carefully, as they have for the better part of a year, and focus on purchasing the essentials,” said James Russo, Vice President, Global Consumer Insights at The Nielsen Company.

One peripheral category which is forecast to gain is bottled waters. Often considered a  discretionary item, bottled water is consumed as a staple, and is expected to out-pace juice sales with growth of 3.57%.

“The winners this season will be retailers who offer strong discounts and appeal to the consumer’s desire for savings and value. Look for gains from supercenters, dollar stores, drug stores and to a lesser extent, club and grocery stores,” said Russo.

Back-to-school categories include office/school supplies, artist/hobby supplies, scissors and tape/glue.  Retail outlets covered by Nielsen are food, drug and mass merchandisers, including Walmart.  Figures do not include dollar stores, online sales or office supply retail chains.

Nielsen looked at more than 100 client engagements over a five year period to develop the four following guiding principles:

• Reducing the package size: a risky move that must be balanced with a conveyance of additional auxiliary benefits such as convenience
• Increasing the package size: A preferable option, but must communicate to consumers something more than value for money
• Changing the packaging materials: a margin-enhancing move that can also leverage consumer goodwill
• Changing the ingredient formulation: a high-risk move that must not compromise consumer experience or perceived quality

At the end of the day, consumers are seeking more value for their limited money.  But value is more than price: it is about a quality product that satisfies a need.  Cost-saving innovations, when done in isolation, tend to lead to declines in perceived value and appeal.  Manufacturers need to know their consumers and communicate the auxiliary benefits gained from these innovations to ensure sales growth.

Read a full analysis of the pitfalls and rewards of the four principals described above and learn how manufacturers can innovate cost-savings in the current edition of Consumer Insight.

The re-designed Forester boosted sales for Subaru, while Hyundai and Kia launched new models appealing to younger drivers.  Existing models, such as the Sorento and Sedona posted strong sales growth (69% and 48%, respectively).  And Lincoln was the only U.S. brand to outperform the market (although sales remained in negative territory on a year-to-year basis).   Foreign automakers benefitted disproportionately from escalating gas prices because consumer perception that their vehicles, especially hybrids and diesel models, are more fuel-efficient.  Hybrids remain an exciting but emerging segment, as consumers take their time investigating the genre.  Meanwhile, consumer interest in the basic economy vehicle was solid when gas prices were high, but dropped sharply once gas prices dropped.

Read more about the positive developments in the auto industry in 2008, as well as consumer behavior with respect to shopping for and buying vehicles in the July edition of Consumer Insight

As with consumers around the world, job security and personal finances are the key concerns for Russians today.  Almost three-quarters of those surveyed characterized the security of their jobs as “not so good” or “bad,” while 81 percent characterized their personal finances the same way.  While these results were not positive, they showed no further signs of pessimism over previous months.  More than half (54%) of Russians said that their family income has declined over the past three months.  Given these sentiments, it is not surprising that 78 percent of Russians felt that it was not a good time to buy the items they want or need.  Discount and hypermarket retailers were the preferred destinations for Russian shoppers, as they switch to channels that can provide better value.

“Russian consumers seem to have overcome the shock of discovering that one of the world’s fastest growing economies is not recession-proof.  Consumer confidence is bottoming out, but the key question remains the duration of the bottom and when Russians will be ready to loosen their belts,” said Dwight Watson, managing director, Nielsen Russia.

Summer seems to be the season of optimism for Russians, with 19 percent of respondents saying they plan to by a travelling tour, and equal number saying they plan to purchase furniture.  Computers and mobile phones were the next most popular items for purchase.  Meanwhile, 37 percent of those surveyed said that they had no plans to make any major purchases.

“Russians through Crisis” is an integrated research project aimed at tracking and analyzing consumer confidence and purchasing behavior in the rapidly changing Russian economic environment.  More than 500 people were surveyed in key Russian cities, including Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk and Nizhiniy Novograd.

“Job security is the biggest concern for UAE consumers.  However, despite uncertainty levels tripling over the last six months, we are still among the top 10 countries with a comparatively higher perception of local job prospects.  More than one in three UAE consumers perceives their prospects as good or excellent over the next 12 months,” said Piyush Mathur, regional managing director, Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan at Nielsen.

In comparison, about a quarter of global consumers described their job prospects as bad in the coming year, with Latvians being particularly pessimistic – 78 percent responded negatively.

“Job concerns reflect in consumer spending habits.  For instance, consumers in the UAE are now tending to keep their spare cash in savings and using it to pay off their debts.  They are controlling discretionary spending, especially on clothing, entertainment outside the home and technology upgrades,” said Mathur.

Although 40 percent said that the media did a poor job of informing them of the issues that led to the crisis, 52 percent say that the media is now helping them to better understand the issues at play while 23 percent said that they were let down by the media.  Another 25 percent were ambivalent.  A similar number (53%) thought that they were getting good information from the media about the steps governments were taking to address the economy, while 20 percent thought that more information was needed.

The views of New Zealanders largely echoed those of others in the Asia Pacific region, which were generally less critical of the media than Europeans and Americans.  In North America, 51 percent of those surveyed said that media coverage leading up to the crisis was inadequate, while 48 percent of Europeans thought the same.  The Swiss were the most fatigued by media coverage – 42 percent were tired of reading about gloom and doom – followed by the Dutch (41%) and the Irish (38%).