Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, European Business Insight Director

SUMMARY: Following the positive trends exhibited in the first quarter of 2010, the second quarter was a disappointment. Contributing to the poor results was a technicality: this year, the traditionally busy Easter weekend was part of the first quarter whereas last year it was part of the second. As a result, Q2 growth rates suffered. But beyond this simple calendar issue, economic fundamentals were weak as the Euro debt/Greek crisis dominated the news and reminded shoppers of the need for cautiousness.

This quarter marked the first time that value growth has fallen short of +1% since Nielsen debuted the European Growth Reporter in 2007. Volume growth rates were lower in Q2 than in Q1 in 15 of the 21 markets we monitor, with Hungary, the Czech Republic and Switzerland being the key exceptions.

Despite having the highest consumer confidence in Europe, Norway saw a sharp decline on a quarter-by-quarter basis (from +8.7% nominal value growth in Q1 to -0.9 in Q2). Germany and Italy also played roles in holding down the overall European number, with Germany falling from +1.7% in Q1 to -2.1% in Q2 and Italy dropping from +1.0% to -1.7%.

The East-West divide we saw in Q1 remained in place in Q2. Western Europe, while still posting disappointing results, was fundamentally stronger than Eastern Europe. Rampant inflation persisted in Albania, Bosnia and Ukraine, while volumes continued to decline in Bulgaria, the Baltics, Romania and Russia.

Improvements in the economy have prompted some consumers to make the “large item” purchases such as buying a house or renovating an existing home or buying a car that they may have delayed during the depths of the economic crisis. While they may be slowly opening their wallets for these purchases, they remain skittish about spending on grocery items, continuing to seek out promotions, private label goods and other strategies that increase value for money. We expect this trend to continue until the European consumer is convinced that recovery has firmly taken hold.

Total European View – Q2 2010

Negative Growth Trends

Nominal value growth dropped sharply, decreasing to 0.9% in the second quarter of 2010, a 1.6 percentage point fall from the first quarter of 2010 and a decline of three percentage points from the same period in 2009. Overall, unit value increased 0.8% while volume growth came to a standstill, up 0.1%

Country Analysis – A Europe United by Uncertainty

Turkey continued to show the most significant growth in unit value, increasing 3% since last year and volume grew by 4% here. Slovakia saw solid growth in volume (+4%) although unit value showed no increase whatsoever. Finland showed 2% volume growth, although the country posted the largest unit value decline as a result of significant deflation (a factor that also affected unit values in Ireland, Portugal and Switzerland). Unsurprisingly, Greece showed declines in unit value (-1%) and volume (-4%) as the country’s shaky finances hurt consumer confidence.

While the overall results were poor, there were a few notable standouts. France saw nominal value growth rise by 2.1% compared to the same period last year, with very modest gains in unit value and volume growth (+1% each). The UK posted nominal value growth of 3.2% with gains in unit value (+3%) being seen as modest inflation creeps back into the food sector once again. Volume growth here was (+1%).

About the Nielsen European Growth Reporter
This report compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the fast moving consumer goods sector across Europe. It is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European market, and covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and convenience channels.

The report is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels, and this edition reports on week 15 of 2010 through to week 27 of 2010.

Glossary
Nominal value growth: Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by the total basket of reported product categories i.e., overall value growth.

Unit value growth (price change): Percentage change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket of reported product categories i.e., price inflation/ deflation.

The unit of volume in the basket varies by category (e.g., liters, kilograms, tons etc).

The change in average price per unit may result from:

• Price changes of individual products
• Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less promotions, etc.
• Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or convenience outlets, etc.
• Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result of market dynamics.

The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience ‘cost of living’ in their actual grocery shopping behavior. The volume growth is the percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products.

Read the full report on European consumer uncertainty.

Several Western Europe economies, namely Germany, United Kingdom and France, reported moderate growth in Q1 with consumer spending between 1% and 4%. However, the escalating European debt crisis that has damped confidence in Q2 may impact future growth. In North America, the contrast between increasingly optimistic Canada and cautiously restrained U.S. is being reflected in dollar sales. Across both the U.S. and Canada consumers are cutting back on shopping trips, seeking value and establishing a balance of branded and store brand purchasing.

Advertising spending also improved in Q1 as 25 of the 31 countries reported in Nielsen’s Global Ad Spend Report experienced gains of greater than or equal to 5%. Two globally significant events – Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup – were driving forces behind this trend. Economically struggling countries Japan, Ireland and Spain were the only countries with flat to declining ad spending in Q1.

What to Watch
In the second half of 2010, against the backdrop of a shaky global economy, consumers in emerging markets will remain more willing to spend on discretionary categories such as apparel, vacation and out-of-home entertainment. In the developed economies where a largely jobless recovery is taking place, the consumer remains very reticent as they are closely monitoring their spending. Value remains the mantra and the new normal is characterized by restraint.

Download the Q2 2010 Nielsen Economic Current.

“While the global economy is in better shape than it was nine months ago, (+7 index points compared to Q3 2009), the ongoing European debt crisis is a major setback to the global economic recovery anticipated this year,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, Chief Economist at The Cambridge Group, a part of The Nielsen Company. “U.S. consumers closely watched unemployment numbers, while Europeans witnessed the government implement new and in some cases, severe fiscal austerity measures amid stagnant job markets and a weakening Euro. Consumers in Western developed economies realized that the road to full economic recovery is going to take a bit longer than expected. In the ongoing weak-to-moderate growth environment, there is some risk for businesses of deflationary pressure, requiring close attention to improving pricing power through more effective deployment of media, innovation and channel marketing efforts.”

“In the U.S., consumers are still focused on repairing their household balance sheets with 45 percent allotting any remaining income (once they have covered their essential living expenses) to savings and paying off debt (37 percent),” said James Russo, Vice President, Global Consumer Insights at The Nielsen Company. “Until the labor market shows continuous improvement, consumer spending will not be sustainable.”

Nielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Index tracks consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among approximately 27,000 Internet users in 48 countries. In the latest round of the survey conducted between May 10 and May 26, 2010, consumer confidence fell in nine out of 24 European markets. The only non-European markets to post quarter-on-quarter declines were Australia, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, Taiwan, Brazil and Egypt.

Disparity Widens Between Developing and Emerging Markets
India (129 index points), Indonesia and Vietnam (both 119 index points) were the most optimistic nations in Q2, while consumer confidence in Spain plummeted by 10 index points to its lowest level on record at 69 index points from 79 in Q1 of this year.

“In Asia, major economies are experiencing growth headwinds in the form of higher inflation and asset price declines. While overall growth in China, India and elsewhere in Asia will still be strong, some slowdown can be expected as governments and central banks tighten monetary and fiscal policy. Businesses therefore need to exercise more prudence in their resource allocation within Asia,” said Dr. Bala.

Globally, 58 percent of people—the same number as in the previous quarter—said they are still in recession with a disparity in recovery sentiment widening between developed and emerging markets. Thirty-nine percent of Asia Pacific consumers and 51 percent of Latin Americans said they are still in recession compared to 84 percent of North Americans and 76 percent of Europeans. Among those in recession, one in five (21 percent) global consumers thinks the recession will last another year. However, this number increases among North Americans where nearly one in four (24 percent) believes the recession will linger for more than 12 months.

“For most of 2010, the U.S. has seen improvement in the job and housing markets supporting the increases in U.S. consumer confidence, but consumers are still very much focused on value and they continue to reduce their overall shopping trips,” said Todd Hale, Senior Vice President, Consumer & Shopper Insights, The Nielsen Company. “Retailers and manufacturers have responded with heightened promotional support and lower prices providing consumers with great deals. However, even with enhanced prices, consumer-packaged goods dollar and unit sales have declined in the latest three consecutive 4-week periods versus year ago.”

Regionally, consumer confidence steadily climbed three index points in Latin America, two index points in Asia Pacific and North America and one index point in Europe. Latin America topped regional consumer confidence levels at 102 index points, followed by Asia Pacific (101 index points), and Middle East, Africa, Pakistan (MEAP) with 89 index points. In North America, consumer confidence reached 88 index points, while Europe lagged behind as the least confident region at 79 index points.

European Debt Crisis Renews Uncertainty
While the pace of economic recovery accelerated in most Asian and Latin American markets, the spreading debt crisis in Europe resulted in consumer confidence reversing in most European markets. Consumer confidence fell in three out of the five biggest economies as European consumers came to grips with the extent of the debt crisis.

In Italy, consumer confidence retreated to its lowest level (71 index points) since Q1 2009 when it hit an all time low of 70 index points at the height of the global recession. “There is strong evidence of a W-shaped recovery for Italy as consumer confidence in Q2 reversed back into recessionary sentiment,” said Stefano Galli, Managing Director, Nielsen Italy. “High unemployment, economic stagnation and massive public spending cuts have caused consumers to further cut back on their discretionary spending and lifestyles. Budget-conscious Italians are continuing to turn to discounter shopping channels and private labels despite fast-moving consumer goods retailers and manufacturers intensifying promotions. We expect to see some signs of recovery starting from the second half of 2010.”

The economic situation in Spain is especially restrained, which is indicative of the 10 point index drop. With the highest unemployment in Europe (20 percent) and a reduction of government employees, Nielsen experts estimate the possibility of economic growth will move further out to 2012.

However, Germany—the region’s largest economy—posted a welcomed rebound with an increase of seven index points up to 81 from 74 index points in Q1, the highest increase in the region. In the second quarter, newly confident Germans began to open their wallets again and were among the world’s top 10 discretionary spenders on clothes and out-of-home entertainment. In fact, the German job market showed a rather robust upward trend and possible sign that consumers now believe that the worst has passed.

Struggling Baltic nations of Lithuania and Latvia both posted consumer confidence increases of six points each in Q2, although both remain among the most pessimistic nations in the world with low consumer confidence index scores of 52 and 56 respectively. “After two years of a deep economic recession in the Baltic countries, local financial institutions are forecasting a slow recovery at the end of 2010,” said Arturas Urbonavicius, Managing Director, Nielsen Baltics.

Brighter Asian and Latin American Prospects
Six out of the top 10 most optimistic nations in the second quarter came from Asia and all these markets posted consumer confidence increases quarter-on-quarter. Vietnam recorded the highest consumer confidence increase in Q2 soaring 18 index points to 119, while Singapore (which recorded the highest consumer confidence increase in Q1), posted another solid five index point gain from 107 in Q1 to 112 points in Q2.

“The enormous rise in optimism seen in the latest survey has taken ‘cautious’ out of Vietnam’s previous footing of ‘cautious optimism’,” said Darin Williams, Managing Director, Nielsen Vietnam “Vietnamese consumers are ready to spend, with new technology being the focus for many after they have paid for essential living expenses.”

Forty-seven percent of respondents in Vietnam stated they would spend excess cash on new technology—the highest percentage in Asia; 39 percent stated they would spend spare cash on new clothes—a huge jump from 23 percent in the last survey. In Q1, only 16 percent of Vietnamese stated they would invest their excess cash, this has increased to 31 percent in Q2.

“Financial product awareness and intent to use is also rising dramatically as banks and insurance companies have increased their advertising and Vietnamese have more spare cash on their hands,” Williams added.

“In Singapore, there is a significant drop in the percentage of people who think they are in a recession—just 17 percent in Q2 versus 28 percent in Q1,” said Joan Koh, Managing Director, Nielsen Singapore. “Almost one in two feels that now is a good time to buy things. After putting spare cash into savings, Singaporeans will spend on holidays, invest in shares of stocks/mutual funds, new clothes and pay off debts.”

Prospects also look brighter in the Philippines (113 index points), China (109 index points), and Columbia (105 index points), which all recorded consumer confidence highs in their respective markets. “After five quarters of continuous consumer confidence increases in China, the one point increase in Q2 represents steady growth coming from consumers in rural villages,” said Chris Morley, Managing Director, The Nielsen Company China.

Economic recovery and consumer confidence also accelerated in Mexico, which posted a consumer confidence increase of five index points compared to the first quarter of the year. “While positive shopping basket trends in Mexico and Colombia show a slow reactivation in consumption, the population is still concerned about economic and job prospects,” said Felipe Urdaneta, Managing Director, Nielsen Colombia.

Denmark (+5), Switzerland (+5), South Africa (+4) and the Netherlands (+3) also posted consumer confidence increases. For Denmark, the rise is a welcomed change for a country that has shown a steady decline, although the Danish market continues to be volatile and vulnerable. Switzerland’s own currency removes them from the Euro crisis and the Swiss are now ready to spend on postponed investments, apparel, travel and electronics.

Download Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index

This year’s analysis found that nine out of the top 10 counties for median home value losses were in California, led by Marin County; while the top home value gainer in 2010 went to Dare County, North Carolina. Other states whose counties were on the top 10 home value gains list include Virginia, Wyoming, Idaho, Hawaii, Oregon and Utah.

Median household income also showed signs of stabilization with an increase in 88% of U.S. counties, compared to 74% in the previous year. This measure suggests that incomes are also stabilizing in the aftermath of the economic recession in 2008/2009. Goochland, Fairfax City, Powhatan and King George counties in Virginia led the gainers in 2010. Top losers in household income came from McKinley County, New Mexico; Broomfield County, Colorado and East Feliciana Parish in Louisiana.

The analysis also revealed that population decreased in 43% of U.S. counties between 2009 and 2010. These levels of county population change are similar to changes seen with recent demographic releases. Wayne County, Michigan topped the list of population losers, which is consistent with the economic downturn and job losses seen in the Detroit area.

“While most overseas advertising markets were already in meltdown by mid 2008, the impact was not clearly evident in Australia until later in the year. When consumer and business confidence was declining in late November and exports /commodities trading were drying up, rapidly softening economic conditions led to more cutbacks in jobs, and for many organisations, forensic cutbacks in advertising activity,” said Peter Cornelius, Managing Director Media for The Nielsen Company Pacific.

Not surprisingly, main media ad spend activity reflected this spiralling demand trend, with the financial year finishing an estimated 6.2% behind the corresponding period in 07/08.  However, the 08/09 financial year was really a tale of two halves. The first half (July – Dec ‘08) was down only 2.3% on the same period in 2007. The second half of the financial year (Jan -Jun ‘09) took the full brunt of the economic downturn with a decrease of almost 11% versus the same period in 2008. It is this ‘low’ base the industry will be watching very closely as media trading improves in line with the much anticipated future economic recovery.

Ad Spending in Australia’s main media, FY 08/09 vs. FY 07/08

Major Advertising Categories Overview

The top 10 Major advertising categories account for 71 cents in every main media ad dollar invested and provide vital indicators on the health of the advertising and media markets.

This is particularly significant when reviewing retail, Australia’s largest category which accounted for more than 21percent share of media spending. The Government’s stimulus packages in early 2009 helped renew confidence among retailer advertisers who promoted heavily to encourage consumer sales. Remarkably, in this economic downturn, retail advertising recorded a minimal 1.1 percent decline YOY to $2 billion.

Australia’s Top Advertiser Groups / Advertisers Overview

The Top 25 advertisers accounted for 21 cents of every main media advertising dollar invested in the financial year. The sectors which were most representative of this elite group of advertisers were Retailers (5), FMCG (4), Motor Vehicles (4), Governments (4) and Telecommunications (2).

The country’s dominant media advertiser group was Wesfarmers Limited, incorporating some of Australia’s foremost retail chains including Coles Supermarkets, Target, Kmart, Bunning’s Hardware, Officeworks and Liquorland. The group finished the financial year with an estimated $220 million spend, just 2.1percent behind 07/08.

Harvey Holdings was the 2nd ranked top Advertiser and performed strongly in what was considered a difficult year for Retailing and advertising generally. With a 4.6 percent increase to an estimated $135 million spend, the group lifted 2 spots from 4th position last year. Also stepping up two positions was 3rd ranked Woolworths Limited, substantially increasing their main media advertising presence by 8.7 percent to $134 million.

Will there be an early Australian advertising recovery?

At the time of writing in September 2009, the financial analysts’ debate continues as to whether Australia ever was officially in recession, although strong retail figures suggest that this may have saved the economy from tipping into one. However, Australia’s economy appears to have begun to rebound with greater speed and resilience than most overseas markets. There remains a cautious attitude among media and marketing sectors about a significant recovery before the end of 2009.  However, as our fiscal year ad spend estimates reflect, and taking into account a soft first six months of 2009, advertising activity may need time to recover and rise into the black.

Certainly, our studies support the theory that those who advertised through the tough times have maintained their competitive advantage as the economic climate improves. Marketing dollars spent during a downturn have less competition for eyeballs, so those who cutback may face even bigger challenges winning back consumers’ hearts and minds.

But the biggest change has come from high-income households.  Prior to the crisis, about 40 percent said that they saved most of their money; now, 52 percent indicate that savings accounts are their preference, while investments lost 7 percent. 

Of those who are still investing their money in the market, stocks continue to be the popular option, with 48 percent indicating equities as their top choice, followed by mutual funds (27%) and properties/real estate (14%).

“Singapore has always been amongst the top three countries in Nielsen global surveys in terms of the number of people expressing their intention to save their spare cash.  We are definitely a cautious lot who are more comfortable putting our hard-earned money in fixed deposits and saving for a secure tomorrow,” said Joan Koh, Executive Director, The Nielsen Company Singapore.

The survey on finance management polled 921 Singaporean adults aged 18 and older to find out how they apportion their disposable funds prior to and after the onset of the global economic crisis.

When asked about their own banks, insurance companies and investment firms, 55% of respondents who said they had seen more advertising for their financial institution reported having “complete confidence” in the financial health and soundness of their financial company and only 18% said they had “little or no confidence” in their company. However, among those who said they had seen less advertising, only 18% had “complete confidence” in their financial company and 45% said they had “little or no confidence” in their company. Overall, a minority of respondents said they had “Complete Confidence” in their financial institutions.

Watch Nielsen’s Alan Gould, Richard Khaleel and James Russo discuss the impact of financial advertising on consumer confidence.

“This research shows that ‘out of sight’ can mean ‘out of business,’” said Richard Khaleel, EVP of Nielsen IAG’s Financial practice. “The current economic climate makes it more important than ever for financial institutions to bolster confidence among their clients and this study clearly demonstrates the link between advertising and confidence levels. With constant scrutiny on the industry it’s clear that taking control of the message in advertising and press can make all the difference for a brand.”

Reduced Spending Meets Lack Of Confidence

The study comes as data show year to year reductions in advertising expenditures in the financial services and insurance categories. Year over year ad spending on financial services and insurance was down 13.4% in 2008 compared to 2007. The drop off was even sharper (-23.3%) for the 4th Quarter of 2008 vs. the same period in 2007.

When asked what factors would increase confidence in the safety and soundness of their financial institution, respondents cited:

• Seeing regular advertising for that institution (25%)
• Receiving regular mail or email offers from that institution (25%)
• Regularly seeing internet offers/advertising from that institution (21%)
• Reading positive stories in the press about that institution (44%)

For more detail, download the complete press release.

Overall in November, trips to retailers declined by 2.9% from the previous year.

Retail Channel Trends
Toy stores, electronics stores, and department stores saw the most dramatic declines in the number of shopping trips last month vs. a year ago.  Trips to toy stores dropped by 23%, trips to electronics stores were down by 21%, and trips to department stores fell by 17%, Nielsen reported.

Retail channels offering low prices and strong value fared the best during November.  Trips to dollar stores (+6%), online retailers (+4%), supercenters (+2%), and club stores (+1%) showed the only year-over-year increases in trip growth rates.

Private Label Trends
In October, value-minded consumers increasingly shifted their purchases to private label products, as the U.S. economy weakened.  Unit sales of private label brands grew by 5% in October — up from 2% growth throughout the past year.

Meanwhile, unit sales of branded products showed a mirror opposite trend, with growth declining by 4% in October after showing an overall 2% decline during the 52-week period ending November 1.  As the U.S. economy slipped further in the third quarter and continued to slide in the fourth quarter, unit sales of branded products worsened in every grocery department — except frozen foods.

In terms of dollar sales, private label products maintained steady 10% growth in October – a trend that has remained constant throughout the past year.  Private label alcoholic beverages, fresh and packaged meats, fresh produce, frozen foods, and dry grocery products saw the fastest dollar sales growth in October.

In contrast, overall sales growth for branded products slipped to 2% — down from 3% during the 52-week period ending November 1.  Although still growing, sales of branded dairy, deli, and fresh produce experienced the greatest declines in dollar sales growth.  Sales of general merchandise products dropped markedly in October and during the 13-week period ending November 1.

Given the continued weakening of economic conditions, Nielsen expects this behavior to intensify in December and into 2009.

Nielsen’s Tips For Manufacturers, Marketers, and Retailers
-Exploit new growth areas: consumer appetite for at-home products, basic necessities, and good values will only intensify.

-Don’t assume consumers are not willing to pay a premium: price is important, but delivering a clear value proposition is more critical.

-Protect your turf: manufacturers should work proactively with their retail partners on branded vs. private label shelf-set rationalization.

-Companies that maintain sales and marketing efforts during recessions typically enjoy better post-recession growth: now is the time to utilize advertising to build customer loyalty and differentiate your brand.

Stay tuned on Nielsen Wire for regular updates on U.S. retail trends and other key economic indicators.

New technologies have revolutionized the way brands are marketed — today’s consumers have more information on brands, and companies, in turn, have more information about their consumers. 

But according to brand guru Kevin Lane Keller (photo at left), E. B. Osborn Professor of Marketing at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College, one key marketing strategy remains unchanged. 

“The most important message for marketers these days is to make sure they have a deep, rich understanding of consumers and how they think and feel about brands and their products and services,” Keller noted in a recent Nielsen Q&A on current trends in brand marketing.  “It is so fundamental and may seem obvious, but unfortunately many marketers still fall way short on that score.”

In his discussion with Nielsen, Keller also offered tips for designing and implementing brand equity measurement systems, making wise marketing investments during the current economic crisis, effectively integrating traditional brand building approaches with emerging online marketing strategies, and finding fresh, new ways to create compelling brand positions via emotional appeals.

Keller’s textbook, Strategic Brand Management, is widely used at marketing and business colleges worldwide.  In conjunction with Professor John Roberts of the University of New South Wales, Keller helped Nielsen develop Winning Brands, a solution that tracks the underlying strength of relationships between customers and brands.

Read Nielsen’s full interview with Kevin Lane Keller.

According to Nielsen Claritas, they might start by taking a closer look at large, fast-growing metro areas, like Atlanta, Dallas, and Phoenix. 

These three markets ranked as the top three fastest growing U.S. markets in the last eight years — and could offer the retail industry some hard-to-come-by expansion opportunities, Nielsen reported in a new study released Monday.

“While some of these markets like Phoenix and Los Angeles have been hard hit by the recent wave of foreclosures, there has been no mass exodus from these markets or anywhere else.  People who have foreclosed most likely have not left the market but rather have just become renters,” Mike Mancini, Vice President of Data Product Management, Nielsen Claritas, and co-author of the new study, noted.  “Faltering markets, such as these, will likely rebound and continue to grow — and their underlying demographics are solid.”

As part of the study, Nielsen also identified seven key factors that correlate strongly with fast-growing, high-potential retail markets:

1) large land areas
2) booming suburban rings
3) widespread affluence
4) a growing Hispanic population
5) diversified employment
6) long commutes
7) the presence of lifestyle shopping centers

These indicators can be combined with demographic projections to identify markets that are likely to lead the way to economic recovery in the coming years.

In the meantime, according to Nielsen’s study, retailers looking for expansion opportunities should focus on booming college towns and resort locations, like Las Vegas, Austin, Texas, and Bend, Oregon; underdog college towns, like Columbia, Missouri, Corvallis, Oregon, and
Greensboro, North Carolina; knowledge worker havens, like Los Alamos, New Mexico, San Jose, California, Boulder, Colorado, and Minneapolis; and up-and-coming communities, like New Orleans, Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, and Brownsville, Texas.

View the study and accompanying press release and presentation. 

Download Nielsen Claritas’s October 30 Webinar, “New Leading Indicators of Growth — Finding Opportunity in a Slow-Growth Environment.”

Learn more about finding growth in challenging times, in the December issue of Nielsen’s “Consumer Insight” online newsletter.