Categories that are likely to experience solid growth include ethnic health and beauty products, flour/shortening/sugar/yeast/eggs, and a variety of health-related goods such as vitamins and medications/remedies.  The slowest growth categories are expected to be toys and sporting goods, breakfast foods, baby care and pet products.

In just ten years time, the face of America will change: fewer households will have children, the population will age and lower-income consumers will expand.  Additionally, the majority of new families will be multi-cultural in less than two decades.

“The demographic shifts underway create both challenges and opportunities for CPG marketers, and companies that anticipate the shifts could have a competitive advantage,” said Doug Anderson, Senior Vice President, Global Research and Development at Nielsen.  ”It will be absolutely critical for CPG companies to adapt in order to gain the attention and brand loyalty of the aging Baby Boomers, multi-cultural families and lower-income consumers of the future.  Those who keep doing what they’re doing today will be left behind.”

Read a more detailed description of the demographic changes that will affect the CPG industry here.

Sales of store brands, or private label products, began to spike in 2007 just as we were seeing the first signs of an economic downturn. At first, these private label sales were driven by higher commodity prices, but volume growth began to catch up with dollar growth in mid-2008. As the economy continues to struggle, more and more consumers are replacing their branded products with private label equivalents. Store brands are up 10% to $84.4 billion in annual sales across categories reported by The Nielsen Company. Talking to Consumer Packaged Goods marketing professionals across the country, there is a consensus that these private label switchers won’t be coming back when the economy improves – at least not without some incentive.

Winning back these shoppers will not be easy for branded manufacturers.  Although many will be tempted to cut back on new product development, now is the time to innovate.

What To Expect From Name Brands

• More products with new health and wellness claims like “now with more calcium,” or “no trans fats.”
• New package designs with claims like “re-sealable” or “renewable.”
• New package sizes and shapes that will make it more difficult for store brands to copy.
• Innovative new flavor profiles with more line extensions.
• New advertising in new places to get the message across to consumers.

Retailers aren’t just sitting back waiting for new brands to copy; over the past several years, we’ve seen store brands evolve from inexpensive national brand alternatives to exclusive destinations that allow retailers to differentiate themselves. Many store brands achieve premium pricing while strengthening retail banner equity with more upscale offerings. Retailers are investing in their own brands more than ever as their efforts are paying off. The battle between national brands and store brands is about to get interesting.

Todd Hale, Senior Vice President, Consumer & Shopper Insights, Nielsen U.S., Jonathan Banks, Director Retail Insights, Nielsen Europe, James Russo, Vice President of Marketing, Nielsen U.S., Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, Director Retail Insights, Nielsen Europe

In what areas of the world, have you seen the most significant changes?

Jonathan Banks (JB): We have already seen a big reduction in shopping trips in European countries since the first quarter of 2008. In Australia, the convenience channel heavily depends on travel to gas stations and there is a strong correlation between gas prices and their store performance. Also Australia saw a faster than expected growth in the discounter channel due to the expansion of ALDI. They succeeded in marketing an offering that consumers perceive to be competitive with the supermarkets on both quality and price. Around the globe, discounter growth was highly correlated with the growth in store numbers, though we now see in some countries (e.g., United Kingdom, Germany and Netherlands) like-for-like growth moving ahead.

Jean-Jacques Vandenheede (JJV): While the surrounding conditions in each market are different, everything today has to do with value. Consumers are flocking to good deals and they are taking advantage of the aggressive sales being offered. However, we have noticed a four to six month delay between the media hype and the resulting consumer behavior. Meaning this: it could get worse before it gets better. Since food is relatively recession resistant, consumers are mainly saving money by cutting back on non-essentials, such as perhaps only taking one holiday instead of two.

James Russo (JR): In the U.S., consumers have been preparing for a recession since the fourth quarter of 2007, according to a Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence survey. However, the most dramatic change in behavior aligns with the severe drop in economic and financial conditions that took place in September 2008. While there are areas of the U.S that are more affected than others, this recession—unlike some others in the past—is broad-based across all income groups. Lower-income households are feeling the pressure of the labor market, housing and credit restraints, and upper-income households are watching their net worth decline, which is most visible in their retirement pensions and housing.

Todd Hale (TH): In the U.S. retailing market, the big surprise has been the severity of shifts from nice-to-have to need-to-have assortment and retailing. In 2008, sales results for discretionary retailers (those serving both high- and low-end consumers) saw their shopping trips and dollar sales plummet in 2008, and sales results for many food categories and food retailers were obviously much better. As a colleague succinctly put it, “if you can’t eat it, you don’t need it”.

What are retailers doing to cope in difficult economies?

JJV: Interestingly, retailers are grasping at basic block-and-tackling methods that place emphasis on resisting price increases, making concessions towards quality, focusing on promotion, investing in private label and negotiating with suppliers on margin increases.

JB: One of the most newsworthy events in the United Kingdom was the closure of the British icon Woolworths. While the economic pressures are affecting a spectrum of retailers, those poor-performing retailers—before the recession—are the ones struggling most. A development to watch is the utilization of Information Technology (IT). As IT continues to get less expensive and more effective, there will be opportunities for increased collaborative buying and sourcing. There is an opportunity to increase savings in times like this, and getting more with what you have is a good investment. Expect to see private label’s share advance more quickly in some categories, in some countries.

JR: Retailers are taking steps to address consumers’ strong desire for value, through their merchandising, marketing and advertising programs. There is a renewed focus on driving return on investment, getting more out of what they have and understanding opportunities (consumers, categories) at an increasingly granular level.

TH: U.S. retailers are placing a strong emphasis on value and their private label programs. In the past year, Kroger has gone head-to-head with Walmart with matching prices on food basics such as bread, milk, eggs, and bananas. On the heels of Save-A-Lot’s successful “Fuel your family for less” program, other grocers have implemented their own “Feed a family of four for $8.00/$10.00 per meal” programs. With a decline in commodity prices, grocers like Wegmans and Giant Eagle (Pittsburgh) have advertised price cuts across their stores.

From the consumer packaged goods executives you have spoken to, what is their level of optimism?

JJV: Caution and uncertainty are the operable words to use. Executives are planning for the worst and hoping for the best. Rather than over-reacting to the conditions, they are looking for segments of opportunity wherever they can be found. All the market indicators we are tracking show that the markets are holding. The majority of the categories are showing positive volume growth in Q4 of 2008.

JB: Now is not the time to slow down and pull back from brand development. Think about how long it takes to get a new product through the pipeline. From a new product development point of view, marketers should have reduced their efforts two years ago if they wanted to be less dynamic through the downturn. History tells us that really great brands have been launched in the middle of recessions where advertising can cost less.

JR: As we speak to hundreds of manufacturer and retail executives, 2008 was clearly a year of uncertainty. Questions such as; how bad is the recession going to be, how long will it last, and what do we need to know were on the minds of every executive. In 2009, the discussions are starting to turn towards: How do we plan for a recovery? What is our exit strategy to assure growth in an up market? Should we increase our advertising and marketing spending? Positive developments will come as many of these plans will take months to execute. Companies need to stay ahead of the curve.

TH: CPG manufacturers have a more pessimistic outlook on 2009 than most retailers I have spoken with. However, many manufacturers do see opportunities to at least hold firm on their marketing spending. While big retailers like Target, Walgreens and Walmart announced plans to reduce store expansion in 2009, they are still expanding and investing in new formats. The same is true for a number of other national and regional grocers as they look for opportunities to test or open new formats and find new locations to expand their footprint.

What are the biggest opportunities for consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers in 2009?

JB: Sustainability remains an extremely important long-term trend as opposed to a fad. Today, ethical companies can use this platform as a differentiator. Within three years, it will be expected and opportunities to promote it will diminish as ‘doing the right thing’ becomes the norm.

JJV: Now is the time to plan ahead and develop an exit strategy out of a crisis. Look at all potential pitfalls and determine a plan to turn things around. Not planning for an exit strategy is actually slowing down the recovery.

JR: The biggest opportunities will be found by aligning with the deepening consumer behaviors that have been occurring since the beginning of 2008. As the economy slows, these behaviors will intensify. Some of these behaviors include:

• greater at-home related opportunities;
• fulfillment of basic over discretionary needs;
• pervasive trading down;
• variety and convenience taking a back seat to value.

TH: Consumers have told us how they are staying home more often and consuming more meals at home or at work. This speaks to meal solution opportunities for food manufacturers and retailers. In addition to the “meal deal” promotions many grocers have implemented, there are opportunities for at-work meals and other meal solutions. One example is ConAgra’s new line of microwave meals. New product opportunities can come to those manufactures that provide a product that delivers real benefits. Value messaging is another strategy coming out loud and clear, such as Kraft’s TV advertisement that compares the size and price advantage for Velveeta cheese with a block of cheddar cheese.

While unit sales of many non-food, health & beauty aids, and general merchandise products fell in 2008, the fact that consumers may be spending more time at home speaks to opportunities in these categories too. Procter & Gamble is a good example of successfully positioning some of their health & beauty brands against higher-prices department store or beauty salon offerings.

What is the one development that has surprised you in 2008?

JB: What surprised me most was the high level of debt families accumulated. Too many families are living beyond their means. Whilst the credit crunch was predicted by some, a good reminder to us all is that in economics, what should happen, usually does…eventually!

JJV: The number of businesses that have been operating beyond their “natural” means—the overuse of incentives, promotions, etc.—has pushed the environment to a limit. Those companies who were healthy before the recession hit will thrive. The ones who were already struggling have been hit harder. Like the athlete who uses prohibited drugs to stretch beyond their physical limits, when corporations operate beyond their means, it is only a matter of time before they will get caught.

JR: The potential for a fundamental shift in consumer behavior is most surprising. This recession is not a cyclical decline and subsequent recovery back to norms. The fundamentals that drove consumption for the past 10 years—most notably, the housing and credit markets and the way households overleveraged themselves—have abated. It is almost as if we are turning back the clock to the 1980s or early 1990s where households start to save and become more fiscally responsible in their consumption habits. And while there is long term gain associated with these behaviors, in the short term, we are looking at a slower, very moderate recovery for potentially the back half of 2009 or early 2010.

TH: What surprised me most was how escalating gas prices—which rose above four dollars a gallon in the first half of 2008—and the mid-September collapse of financial markets had altered the shopping and spending habits among those with higher incomes. These consumers have led the growth in shopping trips to value retailers such as dollar stores and supercenters.

Secondly, the decline in retailer spending and shopping within discretionary retailers, such as apparel, electronics, office supply, department stores, etc., in 2008 has been unprecedented. This trend will continue in 2009, as virtually every major industry (from automotive to housing to restaurants) will continue to experience weak sales in 2009. However, it is hopeful that a U.S. economic stimulus program will be implemented by the second half of 2009, which should drive more consumer spending and make 2010 a better year.

It’s no secret that consumers nationwide have been forced to alter their behavior and spending patterns due to the weak economy in 2008. But, specifically, just how are they coping?

Based on its extensive research in the Consumer Packaged Goods and Entertainment categories, The Nielsen Company has some answers.

The New Mantra: If You Can’t Eat It… You Don’t Need It

Consumers are relying more and more on food staples and “value” items such as rice, noodles, and pasta, which dominated Nielsen’s list of the fastest-growing categories in 2008.

Dollar sales vs. a year ago:

• Bulk rice up 38 percent
• Ramen noodles up 30 percent
• Dry pasta up 25 percent
• Margarine up 21 percent
• Spam up 14 percent
• Canned vegetables up 9 percent
• Frozen vegetables up 7 percent
• Macaroni & cheese up 7 percent

Consumers Are Cooking From Scratch…

Noteworthy is an 8.2 percent increase in unit sales of Canning & Freezing Supplies.  Consumers are now growing and storing their own foods, as well as cooking from scratch rather than buying more expensive prepared “convenience” foods.

And Drinking More Alcohol

Consumers are buying more Wine (7.9 percent increase in unit sales) and Liquors2.6 percent increase in unit sales).

…But, Are Taking Their Vitamins

During these hard economic times, consumers are buying more vitamins (4.3 percent increase in unit sales).  In fact, for most of 2008, the vitamin category was the only Health & Beauty category to grow unit sales by more than 2 percent.  Nielsen predicts that vitamin sales will outpace other categories in 2009. As the U.S. population gets older and time-stressed families supplement less than desirable eating habits, vitamins will continue to grow unit volume, though competitive pricing may keep dollar growth lower.

However, the growth of organic products will slow dramatically. Unless organic marketers can do a more effective job of demonstrating better taste or concrete health benefits, expect the growth of UPC-coded organics to decline less than +10 percent.

“Going Green” Is Now Optional

“Going green” will be motivated more by cost-cutting than planet-saving intentions. Families on a tighter budget will be less likely to pay extra for environmentally-sustainable “green” products, but they will improve the environment as a by-product of cost-cutting strategies, such as saving money on gas by combining errands (lowering car emissions), and by purchasing less non-essential goods (producing less waste).

Consumers Are Trading Down… Or “Out”

Consumers are shifting dollar and unit spending in favor of less expensive private label/store brands as opposed to purchasing established name brands.  Store brands hit an all-time high in unit sales and dollars at the end of 2008.  Also, 48 percent of consumers consistently cited that they prefer larger sizes of items with lower pricing per serving over downsized products at historic price levels.

Nielsen predicts that national established brands will try aggressively to win back store brand business from consumers by using innovative packaging, unique flavors, and additional health and wellness claims.

50 percent of consumers are dining out less often, while more than 30 percent are “trading down” to less expensive restaurants.

…And Are Paying With Cash

Nielsen predicts that cash will be king, especially at convenience stores.  As credit card companies continue to raise fees on retailers, there is more motivation to offer discounts for shoppers paying cash.  Convenience stores will take the lead on cash discounts, as many already offer lower gas prices for cash purchases.  As other retail channels offer cash discounts, credit card companies may get enough pressure to reduce fees for retailers.

…But Still Love Going To The Movies, Especially 3D Movies

2008 box office sales are up 1.6 percent year over year, and 3-D cinema admissions will increase due to the growing availability of 3-D movies and theaters. While many families are likely to keep a tight rein on their entertainment budgets in 2009, Nielsen predicts that 3-D movie theaters might be the exception because consumers appear to love 3-D films.  Gross sales increased more than 60 percent in 2008 for 3-D films compared to traditional films due to higher prices and higher attendance.  There are already more than one thousand 3-D theaters in the U.S., and as many as eleven major 3-D movie releases expected to hit screens in 2009.

…And Downloading Music

Though overall CD sales are down 14 percent, consumers are digitally downloading music tracks at a feverish pace – up 27 percent, while sales of digital albums are up 32 percent.

Ironically, in the new digital age, sales of vinyl LPs were at an all-time high (1.88 million). There has been a resurgence of vinyl due to the new turntables on the market that enable consumers to play an LP and also transfer the music onto their mp3 players/iPods or flash drives. All of the turntables today have this digital transfer capability.

…And Watching TV

Television viewing is at an all-time high among Americans, with the average person watching 4 hours, 45 minutes per day during the 2007-2008 season.

With roughly one-third of the total U.S. population and at least three-quarters of the country’s land area, rural America is a diverse and important marketplace for marketers of consumer products, Doug Anderson, EVP, Research & Development, Nielsen, argues in the January issue of Nielsen’s “Consumer Insight” online newsletter.

Marketers intent on reaching rural Americans should pay attention to marked differences in media usage and consumer preferences that distinguish rural and metro America, Anderson advises.

“As rural America continues to transform and diversify, makers and sellers of consumer products need to adapt their strategies in concordance,” Anderson writes.  “Ethnic diversity, together with ongoing economic instability and technology-driven developments, will continue.  Understanding how these changes impact rural life allows marketers to stay ahead of the curve.”

Read the full article.

View the latest issue of “Consumer Insight.”

So are consumer packaged goods (CPG) manufacturers and retailers, who have struggled in recent months to balance consumer demand for low prices and high value with abnormally high raw materials and transportation costs.

Rather than raising prices, some food manufacturers have reduced the size of their products.  Such strategies may minimize sticker shock at the grocery store, but are unpopular with U.S. consumers.

Instead, according to Nielsen, nearly half (47%) of American consumers would prefer to buy large, economy-sized products with lower price points per serving.

In comparison, only 17% of consumers surveyed by Nielsen said they would prefer CPG manufacturers to introduce new, smaller pack sizes at lower prices.  Another 9% suggested that CPG manufacturers downsize or modestly reduce the packaging size of products, keeping the price of the product the same. 

“CPG manufacturers and retailers have few options to manage rising commodity costs beyond absorbing increased costs, passing on increases to consumers by raising prices, or covering increased costs by downsizing offerings,” Todd Hale, senior vice president, Consumer & Shopper Insights, Nielsen, noted.  “Downsizing, in particular, is not a new option — we’ve seen downsizing over the last few years in a number of categories, including ice cream, cereal, candy bars, salty snacks, and paper products.”

View the media alert.

Households with baby boomer members — born between 1946 and 1964 – account for nearly $230 billion in sales of consumer packaged goods (CPG) products and represent 55% of total CPG sales, a new study by Nielsen and Hallmark Channel reports.

The research, which examined the CPG spending power and brand loyalty of baby boomer households, found that baby boomer households’ share of sales is 5 points higher than their share of population, according to Nielsen and Hallmark. 

Nielsen and Hallmark also tracked baby boomer purchases of over 6,500 brands measured by Nielsen’s Homescan consumer panel that have over 1% US penetration.  Of these brands, Baby boomers account for over 50% of sales for 72% of those brands.

The research for Nielsen and Hallmark’s joint study was conducted via the NielsenConnections Brand Target Audience products, which combine Nielsen’s Homescan consumer panel with Nielsen’s national television sample and its Nielsen Online Internet sample.

Hallmark Channel is the first cable television network to license the NielsenConnections Brand Target Audience products.

View the full press release.

Read coverage of Nielsen’s findings in Multichannel News and Ad Age.

Such buying decisions can be influenced by a consumer’s mindset — or “shopping mode,” a new study released Thursday by Nielsen reports.

The study examined consumer shopping behavior across 22 home and personal care categories and found that shoppers’ mindsets vary according to the kinds of products they seek to purchase. 

“Indifferent” and ”Blinkered” Modes
When shopping for bathroom cleaners, dishwashers, and bar soaps, consumers often default to “indifferent” or “blinkered” mode, where brand attachment is low and switching between brands is common.

Nielsen’s Marketing Tip:
Avoid repackaging or repositioning leading brands.  For new brand entrants in these categories, the key is breaking through to shoppers with a new, attention-grabbing innovation. 

“Browsing” Mode
Consumers are typically more engaged when browsing for shampoos and conditioners, body wash, toothbrushes, and toothpastes.  Many read labels, sniff, and test products before buying.

Nielsen’s Marketing Tip:
Be sure you’re stocking a wide assortment or products.  Innovative packaging will also play well with shoppers in “browsing” mode.

“Buzz” Mode
When shopping for hand and body lotions, air fresheners, and baby toiletries, consumers are open to experimentation.  Many actively seek out product information.

Nielsen’s Marketing Tip:
It’s important to generate “buzz’ for these products through exciting advertising and innovative packaging that grabs consumers’ interest and attention.  Constant innovation — new product introductions and new variants — will keep shoppers engaged.

“Bargain-Activated” Mode
Purchases of toilet paper, laundry detergent, paper towels, facial tissues, liquid hand soap, and batteries are frequently influenced by price discounts. 

Nielsen’s Marketing Tip:
Shoppers will flip their choices easily when faced with promotions.  Here, choice is difficult to influence on a sustainable basis.

View the full press release.

Read coverage of Nielsen’s findings in Supermarket News and Media Post.

NielsenWire recently spoke with the co-author of Nielsen’s holiday retail forecast, James Russo, Vice President of Food Sector Marketing, Nielsen.

NielsenWire: What is the forecast for 2008 holiday shopping season*?

James Russo:
All consumer, economic, and trade indications point to a flat-to-declining holiday selling season across the core consumer packaged goods (CPG) categories that Nielsen tracks. While we forecast, in dollar sales, a gain of 4.7% vs. a year ago, we also predict a decline of -0.8% in unit sales. This is directly tied to the current volatile economic environment, during which close to 33% of households across all income levels are projected to spend less this holiday season, according to a Nielsen Consumer Household survey conducted during the third quarter of 2008.  But despite this tough economic climate and slowing sales, there are opportunities for growth. Segmentation of consumers, channels, and categories will be critical to uncovering those opportunities.

NielsenWire: What might take marketers and retailers by surprise this season?

James Russo:
In the past nine months, consumers have found ways to cope with the current economic situation, as indicated by the following trends:

-”Trading Down,” whether from higher-end retailers and brands to value-retailers and brands, or from vacations to “staycations,” is the new norm.

-Consumer decisions are failing into either “necessary” or “discretionary” spending.

-At-home entertainment is resurgent.

-Consumers are seeking and responding to value solutions, as evidenced by the reemergence of coupon activity as an effective promotional tool.

Surprisingly, consumers are continuing to purchase Health and Wellness items, as evidenced by double-digit gains across products with antioxidant, organic, or whole grain claims.  Note, however, that consumers are increasingly purchasing these products from value oriented grocery stores, supercenters, and club stores.

Look also for a strong year from online sites (especially on Cyber Monday), superstores, and club and dollar stores.  Consumers are increasingly shopping at these retailers as they stock up and pursue value.

And although it is shrinking, there is still a consumer market for “affordable luxuries” and premium based consumption.  In this climate, “trading up” behavior will be less extensive, however consumers, especially during the holiday season, may opt to buy nicer bottles of wine, serve premium candy, or even purchase that new mobile phone. The challenge is to understand consumers’ motivations and shopping patterns at an increasingly local level. 

NielsenWire: What trends should consumers be on the look-out for this season?

James Russo:
CPG manufactures and retailers recognize the strategies that resonate with consumers – but, execution will be the challenge. We anticipate heavy promotional activity to drive traffic in a slowing economy, however, look for organizations to also tap into the increasing consumer desire for “at home” experiences.  This, more traditional holiday message will be delivered through advertising and marketing messages where retailers and manufacturers will push their value solution for consumers. It’s an opportunity for manufacturers and retailers to engage with shoppers, communicate their understanding of current financial pressures, and deliver their value propositions — all while securing brand and/or retailer loyalty. With over 2.5 billion customers ready to shop this season, according to Nielsen In-Store, manufacturers and retailers need to prepare for the challenges that accompany increasingly savvy consumers.

NielsenWire: How did you assemble this year’s forecast – what data did you look at and how did you analyze it to arrive at your final conclusions/predictions?

James Russo:
The Nielsen Consumer Industry forecast is different from any other industry forecast, as it is perhaps the most comprehensive. Our Business Consulting Group conducted an extensive analysis of 125 core CPG categories, in order to understand their current and historical trends during previous holiday seasons.  Then, they analyzed existing trends, along with current and expected economic conditions, to arrive at a macro-level result that delivers foresights to support our clients’ holiday and 2009 planning efforts.

NielsenWire: How accurate is this year’s holiday sales forecast?

James Russo:
It’s too early to gauge our forecast, but we are firm in our commitment to the findings and will be delivering mid-holiday period updates of our forecast, as well as insights in what consumers really think about holiday advertising.  Nielsen IAG, which measures consumer engagement with television programs, national commercials, and product placements, will also deliver an exclusive real-time summary of the most effective holiday commercials, with a focus on CPG categories and retailers.  Stay tuned on NielsenWire for these forecast updates.

NielsenWire: Looking beyond the key holiday selling season, what insights can you share that will assist marketers as they plan for 2009?

James Russo:
Millions of consumers are set to enter stores and shop online this season – they do so while grappling with historic levels of household financial pressures. The tactics and strategies CPG companies develop now, to weather the holiday retail season, will not only provide benefits in the short term, but also during the long term, as consumer behavior in the U.S. undergoes fundamental changes. It is our recommendation to utilize the economic slowdown as a time to build competitive advantage and secure your position going forward.  A few key points to keep in mind:

-Value is clearly the main motivator for consumer purchase decisions — whether it’s channel selection, product choice, functionality, or price. 

-Necessary vs. Discretionary spending will drive consumer decision-making.  Food, personal care and household basics – not nice-to-haves – will drive strong sales.

-Expect widespread “Trading Down”: consumers will move from higher-end retailers and brands to value-retailers and brands; from fresh segments to canned & frozen varieties.

-As manufacturers and retailers look to control shipping costs, a local sourcing trend will continue.

-Look for increased levels of at home consumption — whether in food or entertainment.  Products and Services that deliver on this messaging will succeed.

-New Usage patterns are emerging: skipping meals, washing clothes less often, watering down cleaning solutions, skipping medications or taking half doses.

These are unprecedented economic times, with unique challenges and opportunities.  Now, perhaps more than ever, the ability to understand your consumers and specifically what is driving their behavior will ensure success during the coming holiday season and beyond. The steps you take now will not only assure success in the short term but, more importantly, position your organization for long term growth.

Read Nielsen’s holiday retail sales forecast.

*Nielsen’s Holiday Sales Forecast includes sales during the eight weeks in November and December in food stores, drug stores, mass merchandisers, and convenience stores. 

Submit questions about the report to Nielsen forecast co-authors, James Russo and Todd Hale, by commenting below.

For example, the new data might inform a marketer of tooth whitening products that people who are considered “Carefulness 5” in Mindset Media parlance — those who avoid haste and impulse — are 56% more likely to purchase tooth whitening strips than other consumers.  The company could then use that data to fine-tune communications to target those consumers.

Incorporating personality profiles into standard consumer data is a first for the CPG industry, Todd Kaiser, senior director, Nielsen Consumer Panel Services, noted.

“Working with Mindset Media, we are the first company to directly link consumers’ personalities and purchase behavior information for the CPG industry,” Kaiser said.  “Now, CPG manufacturers and retailers can achieve a deeper understanding of what drives consumer behavior and how to more effectively appeal to their target consumer.”

View the full press release.