One might assume that the unemployment rate at a state level would show a strong negative correlation to the likelihood to purchase a vehicle in the next six months, but this doesn’t appear to be the case. Michigan had the highest unemployment rate at 11.6% in January 2009; however, these residents are slightly over-indexing for the likeliness to purchase a vehicle in the next six months. It’s very interesting that Mississippi is the most likely state to purchase a vehicle and Idaho is the least likely, since both states fall in the middle of the heap for unemployment.

January 2009 Unemployment Rate Vs. Likelihood To Purchase A Vehicle

Solely looking at shopping intention by state is too high of a level to glean any actionable insight. However, coupling intention with current vehicle ownership allows for smarter inventory planning and target marketing within each state. Typically, we would be a bit more aggressive and aim to conquest more sales, but in the current economic condition we need to be more cognizant of advertising expenditures and ensure a high ROI.

In 2009 it will be imperative that automakers focus on the total customer experience of existing owners and consider developing loyalty programs. It is much easier and cheaper to retain an owner than it is to make a conquest from a competing brand. Nielsen @Plan data is indicating that Oklahoma residents are the second most likely to purchase a vehicle in the next six months and are also over-indexing on owning a Kia vehicle and Compact Sedans/Coupes. There appears to be an opportunity for Kia to gain additional market share within Oklahoma especially with the Optima and Spectra. Lincoln also has an opportunity in Mississippi with an ownership index of 286, while Chrysler may want to reduce their ad spend in this state and shift focus to areas that have a higher concentration of Chrysler owners such as Iowa, Kentucky and Michigan.

The automotive industry’s ad spending fell hardest in 2008. The industry slashed its spending by almost $1.8 billion, or 15.5%. Among the Big Three automakers, Chrysler (Cerberus Capital Management) and Ford Motor Co. cut advertising 31% and 29%, respectively. General Motors trimmed its advertising 1%.

Pharmaceuticals also cut back its spending significantly, declining 18% and almost $1 billion compared to 2007. Quick Service Restaurants, however, was the only category in the top 5 to spend more in 2008, with 3.8% more expenditures in 2008.

Cable TV was one of only two media (along with Hispanic Cable TV) whose ad spend showed growth in 2008. Its 7.8% jump in 2008 accounted for almost $2 billion in additional revenue for cable networks. Meanwhile, Network TV ad revenue declined 3.5% in 2008.

Print media continued its anticipated decline in 2008. Local and National Newspaper ad spends declined 10.2% and 9.6%, respectively. National Magazines fell 7.6%, while Local Magazines dropped 3.7%.

Procter & Gamble maintained its perch as the top advertiser this year, despite a 19% decline vs. 2007.

To see the full release from The Nielsen Company, including a media breakout and top advertising companies, click here.

In the past year, Nissan N.A. and Ford Motor Co. Web sites are showing signs of increased consumer interest as evidenced by comparing the unique visitors from January 2008 to January 2009. In terms of year-over-year growth in site visitors, Nissan N.A. saw an increase of 14% while Ford Motor Co. showed a 9% increase. Chrysler LLC experienced the steepest decline in site traffic at 26% followed by General Motors (-17%), Toyota Motor Sales (-11%) and Honda Motor Co. (-5%).

In January 2008, visitors to Chrysler LLC sites also visited or overlapped with General Motors sites (24%) followed by Ford Motor Co. (22%), Honda Motor Co. (15%), Toyota Motor Sales (14%) and Nissan N.A. (9%) sites. The overlap landscape has significantly changed for Chrysler in January 2009 as General Motors and Ford Motor Co. are the only automakers to be cross-shopped with 16% and 3% respectively. Further analysis of online discussion reveals that consumer confidence toward Chrysler’s products, leadership and future viability is decreasing, which poses a threat to potential sales.

Interestingly, Ford is showing signs of becoming a stronger competitor to Toyota, Nissan and Honda, while having less audience overlap with Chrysler and General Motors. In January 2008, roughly 15% of consumers that visited a Toyota Motor Sales site also went to a Ford Motor Co. site, while in January 2009 this rose to 20%. Nissan N.A. sites witnessed a similar overlap increase from 20% to 27% with Ford Motor Co.

Is this change in consumer behavior due to Ford’s improved products, a sign of consumer confidence that Ford refused to receive any government bailout money, or both? Online discussion is indicating that Ford’s strong leadership and refusal of bailout money is giving them the competitive advantage over Chrysler and General Motors. As the threat of bankruptcy grows stronger for General Motors and Chrysler, it is my hypothesis that Ford will continue to benefit from their decision to refuse government aid both in terms of site traffic as well as sentiment of online discussion.

In mid-November, following GM released its quarterly earnings report – which highlighted the gravity of the Big Three Automakers’ financial situation, and online consumers began comparing the potential auto bailout to the U.S. government’s bailout of the financial industry or the Chapter 11 benefits/consequences of the airline industry.

Around November 21, the first Congressional bailout hearings spurred consumers’ opinions across the Internet.  Many questioned how the domestic OEMs will be held accountable for using bailout funds.  Others heavily criticized the Big Three Auto CEOs for flying corporate jets to the hearings.

In non-bailout related blog discussions, online consumers expressed enthusiasm about potential future Toyota hybrid models, such as a sport coupe version of the Prius or a Lexus-only hybrid compact.

Online consumers were also abuzz during the L.A. Auto Show, with many expressing interest in alternative fuels and new versions of vehicles, such as the Ford Fusion and Mustang, Lexus RX, Mazda 3, Nissan 370Z, and Cube.

View the complete “Automotive Industry Overview” for November 2008.

Stay tuned on Nielsen Wire for monthly installments of Nielsen Online’s monthly “Automotive Industry Overview” of online, consumer-driven automotive discussions.

Through July 2008, the Big Three American car manufacturers (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) all showed negative advertising growth over 2007, according to Nielsen Monitor-Plus. Ford and Chrysler each spent 22% less on advertising, while GM dropped its spending by 6%.

Compare that with the relative success of foreign automakers. Honda added the most spending in dollars over 2007 (an extra $71.5 million, or 13%), while Daimler (48%) and Volkswagen (23%) showed the most growth percentage-wise.

But not all foreign automakers saw the same success. Hyundai’s spending dropped by 17%, Nissan’s fell 15%, and Toyota’s numbers remained unchanged. The numbers reflect a 10% dip in ad spending across the entire auto industry through July.

So, for the money that has been spent, where has it gone? Of the total $6 billion spent on car and truck ads, more than $5 billion (83%) were placed in television, while $640 million (11%) were placed in magazines

There were some notable declines in media spending this year. Television is down $323.7 million (-6% compared to last year); budgets for magazines (national, local, and B-to-B) were cut $187.3 million (-23%); and newspapers (national, local, and supplements) dropped $58.8 million (-25%). These significant losses contributed to the overall loss of $640 million, bringing advertising for the automotive category down 11% for the first seven months of this year.

Cable television reported a 5% increase in total spend for the Jan-July time period with $881.9 million in total spend. Another bright star in automotive ad spend is Spanish-language cable television, gaining $1.8 million. Finally, spending in local magazines also climbed, showing the largest increase of 23%.

An analysis of auto-related blog discussions released Tuesday by Nielsen Online found online buzz in October spiked around BMW’s X1 Concept, Lexus’s IS 250C, and Acura’s first V8 engine.

The “Meet the Beckers” series and content from the Lexus L-Studio site were the top consumer-cited videos for October.

Among more sober blog discussions, buzz about a potential GM/Chrysler merger was most prevalent. Consumers speculated about which models might be discontinued and the prospect of job cuts. Many also voiced opposition to funding the merger with a government loan.

In contrast, Porsche’s increased stake in Volkswagen generated far less online buzz. Most consumers who blogged about that merger described it as a good business move.

View the complete “Automotive Industry Overview” for October 2008.

Stay tuned on Nielsen Wire for monthly installments of Nielsen Online’s monthly “Automotive Industry Overview” of online, consumer-driven automotive discussions.

An analysis of GM-related online buzz between September 1 and October 24, 2008 found that consumer chatter on Internet message boards and blogs has focused on how Detroit would change if GM and Chrysler joined forces — and which vehicles might survive the merger.

GM’s forthcoming electric car, the Chevy Volt, also drove a significant portion of GM’s online buzz during the last two months — as did discussions of plant closures, the United Autoworkers union, and the company’s 100th anniversary.

View Nielsen’s proprietary Brand Association Map (BAM) for GM, which charts the attributes most closely associated with the company in online discussions.  The BAM analysis provides an unaided, unsolicited, real-time barometer of consumer perceptions of and attitudes toward a topic discussed online.

What are your thoughts on a GM-Chrysler merger?  Submit your comments below.