Online Buzz

With huge anticipation for the Modern Warfare sequel, online buzz levels from Nielsen have been consistently strong in the 4 weeks leading up to launch. At three weeks pre-launch, buzz levels spiked after Microsoft confirmed that the special edition Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 bundle would be available for the Xbox 360. Five days prior to release, the game’s launch trailer was posted on YouTube, which caused yet another surge in buzz, further fueled by ongoing discussion of high pre-order rates.

High Game Awareness and Anticipation

Data from Nielsen’s weekly Video Game Tracking service corroborates what the online buzz suggests: Active gamers are aware of and highly eager to experience Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. In addition, there is an expectation that the game will be high-quality. Key metrics for the game have been growing steadily since the title first appeared in tracking in May of this year, with Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 outperforming benchmarks across measures including awareness, purchase interest, rating and purchase urgency.

Active gamers know that Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 will be available, with current unaided awareness six times higher than historical benchmarks (12% vs. 2%, respectively) and aided awareness nearly triple that of the average video game release (71% vs. 26% on average). Last week, nearly half of the gamers aware of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 report seeing the title advertised on television (46%) and approximately one-in-three (30%) note that word-of-mouth through friends, relatives or co-workers contributed to their awareness of the game while almost the same proportion (28%) saw an online preview/review.

While awareness is important, Nielsen data shows Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is also a highly anticipated game, with 3 to 4 times the proportion of gamers in recent weeks indicating they would pre-order or buy the game in its first week of release compared to the average title (9-12% vs. 3% on average). Current definite purchase interest for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is nearly three times higher than for the average title (21% vs. 8%, respectively) and overall purchase interest is almost double (37% vs. 19%, respectively), suggesting strong demand for the title at retail. These potential buyers expect the game to be a good one, with those aware of the game rating it substantially better than average (7.7 vs. 6.8 on a ten-point scale).

Likely to Buy

In addition to buying high-profile titles like Modern Warfare, Nielsen Homescan for Video Game indicates that households that bought the original title spend nearly 3 times the amount of money on video game purchases annually vs. typical video game buying household, and even outspend the average household that purchases shooter titles more broadly. These higher purchase rates make Modern Warfare franchise fans valuable, highly desirable customers at retail – which is perhaps why we see a concerted effort to entice them to not only purchase the game itself, but also special editions and limited-edition consoles.

Nielsen data also shows that households purchasing Modern Warfare (across all platforms) were more likely to have children aged 13 to 17 (index 121), earn a household income of $100,000+ (index 148), and be of Asian descent (index 141) vs. the average game-buying household.

…and Eager to Play

If prior play rates are any indication, PC gamers in particular will be glued to their computers the minute they acquire Modern Warfare 2. Over the last twelve measured months from Nielsen’s GamePlay Metrics metered PC data, we see consistent and vibrant activity for the original Modern Warfare title. The average weekly gameplay on the single game mode was nearly two hours, while multiplayer consumed almost four hours per week. On average, nearly five sessions were logged per week, per player. Of note, multiplayer gameplay peaked in June 2009, when Nvidia sponsored a free multiplayer map pack download: during this month, the average weekly hours jumped to six.

Of course, other titles will have to move over to make room for some PC gamers’ marathon Modern Warfare 2 sessions in the coming weeks. Judging from Nielsen’s GamePlay Metrics, cross-title play data among the most recent (September 2009) players of the original Modern Warfare game, World of Warcraft, Call of Duty: World at War, and Half-Life 2 (in addition to COD: MW) are the most frequently alternately played titles that could experience a blip in PC play with the title’s launch. This list suggests that PC gamers who play the franchise skew toward the more traditional, hardcore gaming audience, corroborated by their 70% male, 54% ages 25-54 profile.

By comparing consumer response from Video Game Tracking before and after the name change, key metrics such as aided awareness, definite purchase interest and total positive purchase interest jumped once Modern Warfare 2 was re-branded as Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.

“All three of the consoles have their fans, and sales of consoles and games have been some of the few bright spots in an otherwise bleak retail environment,” said Bradley Raczka, Marketing Manager for Nielsen Games.  “It will be interesting to watch the continued migration to the current generation consoles in 2009, and see how releases of titles such as Halo Wars, Resident Evil 5, MadWorld, Killzone 2 and Street Fighter IV impact usage trends in the first half of the year.”

• Wii: The best-selling of the three systems, appeals to boys age 6-11 and women age 25-34. Usage of Wii by women 35+ is much higher than with the Xbox 360 and PS3. Games such as Wii Fit, Guitar Hero and Rock Band appear to have engaged an older female gamer like never before.

Usage of Wii by the 18-24 age group, considered the core/hardcore gaming segment, is low for both genders compared to the other two consoles.  However, Wii has been successful in broadening the gaming market to a wider demographic audience.

• Xbox 360: For males, the largest percentage of usage is in the 12-17 age group, older than Wii, but younger than PS3. For females, the 25-34 age group had the highest percentage of usage. These consumers may also be attracted to the other services featured such as Xbox Live, which offers online play, onlineaudio/videochat, and the ability to download movies (now with Netflix as part of the NXEXbox Live update),classic video & user generated games, additional game contentand music videos.

• PS3: The Sony console skews the oldest of the three consoles, and that could be the result of consumer brand loyalty, since Sony has been the dominant market player since it introduced the PS One in 1994 and PS 2 in 2000. Gamers who owned one or both of these consoles in their youth may have “graduated” to the PS3 in their assumed adulthood. For both males and females, the highest usage came from the 18-24 age group.

In terms of overall usage, males using the Xbox 360 are playing almost twice as many days per months as females (10.2 vs. 5.4 in December), but on the other two consoles, usage days for males and females are much closer.  On average, the least used console is the Wii.

During the fourth quarter, November had higher than average usage days on all three consoles, due largely to the fact that the bulk of game releases occur during October and November in advance of the holidays.  In 2008, a number of highly anticipated titles were released, such as Gears of War 2,  Wii Fit, Grand Theft Auto IV, Dead Space, Guitar Hero: World Tour, Call of Duty: World at War and  Left 4 Dead .

A complete comparison of console usage during the fourth quarter can be viewed in PDF form here.

Nielsen Games’ GamePlay Metrics service provides measurement of console activity from the National TV Panel of homes.