Is the Super Bowl the ultimate marketing ecosystem of paid and earned media? 2010 will be huge test, as the new reality of consumer expression and cross-platform integration create a powerful new dynamic hovering over the largest single-spot ad spend on record.

What marketers urgently need to understand is not only total ROI on that mega-media buy, but the full return on all the other activities triggered or reinforced by this paid media stimulus. How does paid media drive earned media? And to what degree does earned media halo future paid media efforts? These are critical questions that Marketers need answers to – along with a metric or common yardstick that quantifies the blending of the two.

Getting Real about Real-Time
In an more agile and flexible marketing environment, where there’s actually a chance of making real-time changes based on available data, marketers need to understand the real-time role they can play in making tactical interventions to grow earned media impressions and ultimately, increase odds of success.

Twitter brings a fresh dynamic and promise to Super Bowl media efficiency. The platform reached a reach tipping point in 2009 – so much so that marketers increasingly use it to fan the flames for events, interact with brand mavens or enthusiasts, and, in a growing number of cases, manage or sandbag tension points like customer disappointment or service shortfalls.

Tweets are also increasingly embedding themselves in Facebook feeds, blog entries, and Google search results, magnifying their long-term value. Translated to the Super Bowl, positive playback about Super Bowl ads can have a “latency” effect and provide brands with an almost endless annuity of “earned media.” The same dynamic will be at work with Facebook brand fan pages, which can see massive growth – hundreds of thousands – following a major ad campaign, offline or online.

Quantifying the Big Picture
In the end, Super Bowl spots today need to meet two distinct “torture” tests – one measurable based on traditional TV scoring, and another based on unique dynamics of cross-platform engagement, most notably word-of-mouth and conversation. On a pure TV-impression alone, one can argue that the Super Bowl has become such an unusual magnet for consumer attention and recall – the one day of the year that we “celebrate” advertising – that it is worth every penny. Indeed, curiosity, anticipation, guessing, nostalgia come into play big time before this festival of brand persuasion. Consumers, after all, want to see the ads, almost akin to seeing a movie.

The entertainment halo certainly matters. Over the last three years, Nielsen IAG research found Super Bowl spots achieved a 31% higher break-through and 93% higher likability than the typical ad on television. But it’s not that simple. Timing is also a factor. First and second quarter spots yield more yardage than second half spots, and 4th quarter spots are about comparable to a “normal” TV buy in terms of generating ad recall. The viewer’s ability to associate the correct brand with the ad, and reported likability levels similarly wane over the course of the game. Surprisingly, branded integration effectiveness shows an opposite trend. Recall and brand opinion are lowest pre-game, moderate during the game, and big gainers post game. For Marketers, the mix is clear: focus on ads early and branded integration efforts late. Lastly, the SuperBowl is a touchdown for brands generally: purchase consideration for the average ad the week after increases +13% versus the week prior.

So that’s the foundation of pure “paid” measurements. What about the “earned” side of the equation, which factors in free media, consumer conversation, participation, and the like? Clearly, the Super Bowl in particular shines light across a far more complicated mix of marketing activity and user-engagement. Great copy finds life in other places.

An engaging, even participatory Pepsi game spot, for instance, might trigger a site visit, a Google search, a tweet, retweet, fan-page sign-up, or DVR rewind. It might trigger a desire to share, forward, discuss, critique, rate, or review. It might bleed over into the social media stream of a New York Times or any media reporter (a growing number of whom leverage social media across all platforms.)

The good news is that this digital trail can be quantified with high levels of precision – by volume, reach, tone, source, or even depth of brand advocacy. And much of this can be delivered in real-time, empowering today’s brand manager to make real-time changes or adjustments to the site. Last year, for instance, a large percentage of brands buying spots on the Super Bowl made real-time adjustments to their websites or social media efforts based on pre-game variables.

This year, Frito-Lay’s Doritos brand sits on the extreme of early-adjustments, as the four spots they are running are sourced from user-participation events and contests. In this case, the “earned media” is stimulating the paid side of the equation. Then again, this can work in reverse. When P&G’s Tide brand ran a highly engaging “Talking Stain” spot two years ago, it triggered a user-generated contest that created an impressive annuity of online video that quickly reshaped the brand’s search results for the better. Three years ago, Nationwide insurance estimated that the “earned media” dividend from their Kevin Federline spot totaled over $20 million dollars.

So in the end, it’s just not as simple as “buying” high-reach media. The broader ecosystems truly matter. This year, Nielsen is putting its biggest effort into measuring and quantifying the full return of Super Bowl advertising, combining a comprehensive suite of paid media and earned media metrics into a total “engagement” score. And we don’t intend to stop at the Super Bowl. Over the course of 2010, we’ll be applying our new cross-platform engagement metrics across our work on the Winter Olympics, Academy Awards, and the World Cup.

Webinar: Learn more about Nielsen’s comprehensive approach to the Super Bowl. Join Pete Blackshaw and Randall Beard for a webinar Maximizing Advertising ROI in a Paid vs. Earned Media Environment on December 8 at 2:00PM EST.

Despite increased optimism about the economy, the social media landscape indicates that we are in a similar place to where we were this time last year when it comes to spending; buzz about Christmas and holiday shopping is down 3% year-over-year. This activity is in line with other research at Nielsen relative to retail expectations and consumers’ personal finances that indicate modest spending from a cautious consumer base.

However, consumers are still buzzing about the gifts they’ve already purchased or are planning to buy in the coming weeks. Notably, online discussion focuses largely on offline shopping.

While online shopping has been rising over the last few years, we’re also finding that consumers are using the internet to find the best deals at retail outlets, toy stores and more. So what happens online, doesn’t always stay online in the new economy where deal hunting is driving buzz.

As consumers count down the days to the holiday season, we see two key trends emerging:

1. Parents are actively buzzing about the must-haves of the season within online communities
2. Buzz about gift cards is on the rise, largely in response to retailers’ use of gift cards as purchase incentives

Games that buzz
When analyzing the product categories shoppers most frequently discuss online, Nielsen found that kid-friendly video games generated more buzz than even the most buzzed-about toys, largely driven by highly engaged gamers. The November 15 release date for New Super Mario Bros is highly anticipated, catapulting this video game to the head of the pack in terms of buzz. Additional buzz in the gaming world has come from price drop and new model announcements for Playstation 3 and XBOX.

Zhu Zhu the next Tickle Me Elmo?
Buzz supports Toys “R” Us’ “Fabulous 15″ predictions for the 2009 holiday season, with Zhu Zhu Pets, Bakugan Brawlers and Transformers Revenge of the Fallen figurines topping the list of the most frequently buzzed about toys.

Shoppers deem Zhu Zhu Pets the hot toy of the season as parents swap stories of empty shelves and elevated prices at retailers. An emerging Zhu Zhu market has also sprung up on eBay. Strong buzz on LeapFrog’s educational toys are a holdover from the 2008 holiday season; parents are especially interested in the Leapster and Tag Reader product lines this season.

Gift Cards buzz is on the rise, buoyed by incentive programs
A growing proportion of online conversation focuses on gift cards—including gift cards awarded as purchase incentives (15% growth in buzz year-over-year, September 2008 vs. September 09). Amazon.com and Toys “R” Us have experienced the largest year-over-year growth in buzz about gift cards of the retailers and brands measured.

This increased interest in gift cards is largely driven by retailers bundling gift cards with purchase incentives. Gift card bundles essentially provide shoppers with two sets of gifts: the original purchase and the gift card which can either be given as a gift or used to buy more holiday presents. These incentives tend to generate a sizable amount of discussion online—especially when tied to the gaming category. For example, Amazon.com recently coupled a price break on Wii with a $25 gift card, generating a surge in online conversation about Amazon.

Retailers who do not currently use gift cards to encourage purchases may want to consider taking advantage of this growing opportunity during the holiday season.

Related: Watch Nielsen’s Ken Cassar Discuss Online Holiday Sales CNBC

When Sen. Edward Kennedy died late on Tuesday Aug. 25, a year after his 2008 appearance at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, news coverage and online discussion began in earnest as soon as the Kennedy family made the announcement.

By the end of Wednesday (Aug. 26) Kennedy attracted nearly 1% of all blog buzz, according to Nielsen’s BlogPulse search engine, and by Thursday morning (Aug. 27), he was the most-discussed person in the blogosphere. His New York Times obituary was also the most-cited news story among bloggers and the phrase “Ted Kennedy dies” was the phrase used most by bloggers Aug. 26-27.

Consumers posted comments about Kennedy, not only on political and news blogs, but on celebrity blogs as well. Key political blogs where discussion took place included liberal-leaning sites the Huffington Post and Crooks & Liars as well as conservative-leaning sites Michelle Malkin and Hot Air, and differences in opinion were obvious. Comments on liberal-leaning blogs recounted Kennedy’s accomplishments as a champion for labor, the poor and for universal health care, which he called the “cause of my life.” Comments on conservative blogs were much harsher and critical of Kennedy, not only for his politics but also for his personal life.

The month prior to his death, the Senator was increasingly mentioned in conversations surrounding the passage of a health care bill as was his wish to have a successor named quickly upon his passing.

Last Thursday, when the Eagles announced the signing of Michael Vick during a preseason game, it set off a media storm locally and nationally. The game itself was seen by 647,000 viewers in Philadelphia, a 63% increase over the Eagles’ first pre-season game in 2008. Recent online buzz was also high. According to Nielsen Buzzmetrics, the August buzz surrounding Vick overshadowed chatter following his release from prison earlier in the year.

Whether or not Michael Vick is able to rehabilitate his image, the best news for the Eagles may be that despite a risky signing, reports say they have retained all of their corporate sponsors. In fact, Vick has already had an indirect affect on the exposure of Eagles sponsors: his press conference delivered exposure time not only for the backdrop sponsor, but also for the naming rights sponsor of the Eagles’ practice facility which hosted the event.

Just as the buzz began to subside around Michael Vick, news broke on Tuesday afternoon that Brett Favre, after stating more than once that he’d stay retired, was on a plane to the Minnesota Vikings’ training camp, pushing online discussion to levels nearly as high as Michael Vick. Favre’s press conference was seen live on national cable and local broadcast television.

Minnesota television is still buzzing. “Brett Favre” was referenced 452 times on TV in the market alone on August 18-19, according to Nielsen Grabix, which monitors closed captioning. The Vikings and their sponsors are no doubt hoping that the increased interest Favre brings will translate to more eyeballs for their ads and signage. Last year, in his first “un-retirement” with the NY Jets, Favre contributed to a 17% boost in New York viewership compared to the year prior.

With these two signings Philadelphia and Minnesota proved that they were teams willing to take calculated risks which delivered increased exposure for their sponsors, and they hope in the end, a Super Bowl.

Just as the offline conversation about health care reform is growing in the U.S., we are watching the online discussion grow and evolve as well. In the past month, health care reform discussions have increased by more than 1,000 percent, outpacing the online talk surrounding Swine Flu and the government’s “Cash for Clunkers” program.

President Obama is keenly aware of the important role that bloggers play in sharing information about health care reform. On July 20, the President called for bloggers to help drum up support for his health care bill, causing another jump in online conversation in the days that followed. The White House has also been using Twitter to get the message out to the public. Of the 24 tweets that have been sent out in the last two weeks, 14 have been about health care reform.

Online discussion about health care reform – like offline discussion – is highly polarized. YouTube chronicles of recent protests at various public town hall meetings (which have been at the top of the list for most-cited videos in the last week), may have created an assumption that most citizens are strongly against the reform. However, in the past week there has been a slightly larger Web presence of those in support of reform, although the split is fairly narrow and is similar to other national polls on the topic. The bottom line is that the conversation is growing on both sides of the debate, as the following chart shows.

Much of the conversation centers around sharing the latest information on the health care reform debate, with both sides adding their own spin and attempting to debunk myths and misconceptions. The discussion is also highly charged, with some bloggers engaging in one-on-one arguments that degenerate to insults and name-calling. Some of these conversations are taking a very ugly turn, as we have seen them do in person as well.

While the health care reform conversation is taking place continues to grow in online political blogs and forums, it does not represent a significant share of conversations occurring on health care sites. Although patients may have the most at stake in health care reform, the conversations about this reform tend to be more political in nature and are less prominent in health forums and communities.

As the debate rages, consumers are increasingly turning to the official White House Web site to understand the key issues. In the last month, unique visitors to the health care pages of Whitehouse.gov have increased 390 percent, from 41,000 unique visitors in June 2009 to 201,000 in July. The administration has also established a site specifically dedicated to debunking the health care reform myths, www.whitehouse.gov/realitycheck.

Where do you stand?

“Life moves pretty fast,” Ferris Bueller warned us. “If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.”

Director John Hughes managed to capture slices of that fast-moving life on film, offering iconic, relatable characters like Ferris and the Breakfast Club kids to an entire generation. When he died suddenly on August 6, the Internet mourned the loss of a great voice in Hollywood. On the day after his death, Hughes was the most-discussed person on the Internet, according to Nielsen’s BlogPulse.
In the following days, thousands of fans reminisced about their favorite Hughes films, according to a Nielsen analysis of Hughes-related online consumer buzz. They pointed to movies like The Breakfast Club and Ferris Bueller’s Day Off as key points in their formative years, shaping how they viewed their high school experiences and their places in society.

Those lucky enough to have interacted with Hughes personally shared their memories of him. When blogger Alison Byrne Fields wrote of her years as Hughes’ pen-pal, links to her post skyrocketed, boosted by a link from Gawker and an interview on NPR. It quickly became the most-cited blog post on the Internet on Saturday, August 8, according to Nielsen BlogPulse. More than 1,200 users commented, many describing their own grief at Hughes’ passing.

“Thanks for sharing,” said one reader simply. “John Hughes understood us.”

In a difficult economy of rising unemployment, struggling newspapers and advertising agency cutbacks, Alexa Robinson graduated this year from the University of North Carolina/Chapel Hill with a degree in… journalism and advertising. But she wound up finding a position that carried an entirely new job title — one that didn’t even exist when she started at UNC — “Twintern.”

As Pizza Hut’s first-ever Twitter intern (Twitter + intern, hence, “Twintern”), the 22-year-old Greensboro NC native has been on the job in Dallas since late June. Alexa took time from her 140-character-a-message day to talk to Nielsen about what it’s like to be entrenched in the social media campaign of one of the country’s largest food brands. (Disclosure: YUM! Brands, owner of Pizza Hut, is a Nielsen client). Pizza Hut’s Twitter account had roughly 3,000 followers when Robinson started, and it now has 15,000-plus followers; she’s Tweeted about giveaways, promotions, new products, the Pizza Hut iPhone app, menu changes and more, and invited fans to send Tweets about their favorite foods/vacation photos/celebs).

Q. Is a “Twintern” what you wanted to be when you grew up?
Alexa Robinson: When I headed off to college, I was an undecided non-major. Until the end of my sophomore year, I just took general college arts-sciences classes, trying to figure out what I wanted to do. When it came time to declare a major, I thought about business, but I decided I would take an intro class to the journalism school, with advertising as my major. I thought that advertising looked fun, and I was curious about it. I’m really glad that I did, because I had an incredible experience. All the professors I had were amazing, and well-versed in everything that they taught, and many of them had been in the industry. During my last semester, I took a New Media class, where we discussed Twitter, Facebook, mobile marketing, social media…all of the changes going on in the world of media. I had been involved in social media before that class, but it definitely gave me an idea about how social media was going to transform the marketing and PR worlds.

Q. How did you find out about the “Twintern” job opening? What intrigued you about it?
A.R.: My parents both graduated with degrees in journalism, and my mother was watching CNN toward the end of April, and saw a news interview with Pizza Hut’s VP of marketing, Bob Kraut, about his plans to hire a Twintern. She called me and told me, ‘I just saw this job position on CNN, and I think it’s really up your alley. I really think you should apply.’ I had nearly forgotten about it when I got a call from Pizza Hut’s HR department for a phone interview, and I was surprised. It was a great opportunity and I jumped at the chance to talk to them. It’s unreal to me that I got chosen.”

Q. What’s been most surprising about the job so far?
A.R.: I had no clue what to expect coming in. I knew I was going to be in charge of the Twitter account and engaging with our followers there, hoping to increase the amount of awareness about Pizza Hut on Twitter. I think the most surprising thing has been how open the senior management is to the fact that my position exists and of moving further into the social media space in general. I know a lot of companies are hesitant about getting involved in the online space, or they’re not sure it’s a place for their brand. None of that hesitation is present at Pizza Hut. It definitely reflects on the company as an innovative leader. Brands want to be where their consumers are, and where those consumers are having a conversation. You definitely want to be a part of that so you can contribute more. If your consumers are all on Twitter, why wouldn’t you join in? That’s Pizza Hut’s philosophy. Obviously there are risks to getting involved, but I think they’re necessary risks if you want to get involved and converse with your consumers.”

Q: What’s been the reaction on Twitter?
A.R.:“A lot of people who didn’t know about the Twinternship position were surprised when I started tweeting so much about so many different things. When I started, it sparked a lot of conversation – not just on Twitter but about companies and brands that are on Twitter, and I think that’s been good for the social media space. I don’t think Twitter is just a fad. It has so many different applications, and people use it for so many different things – personal, business, networking – that I think there are a lot of different ways that brands can spin it in the future. And I’ve learned a lot about what kind of voice companies and brands are using on Twitter, and watching what other companies are doing in the social media space. I’d like to create a general awareness of how Pizza Hut is involved in the online space…and look for other places to explore that we aren’t in yet. I hope to leave some sort of mark…

Q: Pizza Hut just announced a program to “Send the Twintern to the edge” to promote its new Edge Pizza. Consumers are asked to suggest “on the edge” places in America to send you to deliver pizza. Are you up the challenge?
A.R.: Sure. We have just started taking entries. I’m hoping I’ll get to go to some pretty neat places. I think it’ll be a really good contest.

If you have not heard of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) by now, chances are you will be hearing about it in the near future. After breaking into the mainstream with The Ultimate Fighter reality series in 2005, an analysis of online buzz shows that the UFC continues to make great strides in popularity.

Backed by cable television programming and monthly pay-per-view events, the UFC has steadily gained online buzz during the past 18 months. Since 2008, UFC buzz has trended upward and peaked with the UFC 94 event held on January 31, 2009, which featured a bout between Georges St. Pierre, the welterweight champion, and B.J. Penn, the lightweight champion.

The UFC’s growth is actually even more impressive when compared against more well established sports leagues such as the MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL and NASCAR. When comparing the first six months of 2008 to the first six months of 2009, UFC online buzz jumped 93 percent and is the only sports organization to exhibit a double digit gain.

*Buzz is compared from January 2008 through June 2008 (H108) to January 2009 through June 2009 (H109)

It is appropriate to ask how much of the UFC’s increase can be attributed to a rise in popularity for its sport, Mixed Martial Arts (MMA)? Looking at the same time frame, MMA mentions increased 41 percent, which represents stronger growth than other sports, but still illustrates that the UFC brand is growing at a quicker rate.

With most fight oriented sports, intriguing match-ups and promotions are key to an event’s success. The UFC has done its best to “own” its sport by signing many of the world’s top fighters and using its octagon-shaped cage as a key branding point. Beyond these elements, the UFC also utilizes its own president, Dana White, to be the franchise’s most visible public figure. Although Dana White has received his share of heat for sometimes being too vocal, his name receives far more online buzz than commissioners from much larger sports organizations do.

*Buzz is from January 2008 through June 2009

Another key to the UFC’s success has been highly anticipated events featuring the sport’s top fighters. To celebrate its one hundredth pay-per-view match, the upcoming UFC 100 promises to be one of the biggest events in their 16 year history, featuring a heavyweight title match between Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir and a middleweight title match between Georges St. Pierre and Thiago Alves. Although the UFC 100 event won’t be held until July 11, 2009, anticipatory buzz has already outpaced that of overall discussion for seven of the past eight pay-per-view events.

* Buzz is from November 2008 through June 2009

Becoming the “fastest growing sports franchise” is not an easy feat. Sustaining the same level of growth over time may prove to be difficult for the UFC, especially as competing MMA organizations such as Affliction and Strikeforce attempt to capitalize on the sport’s success. However, with strong events on the horizon like the UFC 100, and increased coverage by the mainstream media, the UFC appears well positioned to continue its rise to the top of the sports world.

Patrick Doyle, President, Domino’s U.S.A., thanked the online community for the tip in his video and the brand also created a twitter account @dpzinfo to communicate.

Another major brand, Amazon, also drew some social media heat recently when gay and lesbian titles were dropped from Amazon’s sales rankings. This prompted an outcry and the creation of an #amazonfail tag on Twitter. Amazon issued a statement claiming it was merely a computer glitch and “ham-fisted cataloging error.”

Comparatively, the Amazon story spiked a bit higher than the Domino’s one, but neither registerd buzz as high as British singer Susan Boyle, whose performance on “Britain’s Got Talent” became an online smash.

But what’s important here is not the amount of chatter, but the emotion, intensity and negativity associated with a brand in a crisis. Words like “disgusting,” and “snot” hounded Dominos. The word “Motrin” also found its way into the conversation, echoing the PR backache that brand had with an ad that went negatively viral.

View a Brand Association Map of the Domino’s brand before and after the crisis.

Similarly, tags like “#glitchmyass” cropped up on Twitter relative to Amazon. When negative (tag) clouds hover over your brand, it’s critical to be able to track online threats and respond immediately using social media.

Learn more about Nielsen Online’s tracking tools here.

Percent of Blog Buzz Volume for Best Actor and Actress Nominees within Nominee Discussion, January 1-February 15, 2009

Buzz volume spiked for this year’s best actor and best actress Oscar nominees on January 12^th following the 2009 telecast of the Golden Globes and again on January 22^nd as the nominations for the 81^st Academy Awards were announced.   The most notable spikes in online chatter were driven by Kate Winslet after winning two Golden Globes for her leading role in “Revolutionary Road” and supporting role in “The Reader” and Brad Pitt, as consumers discuss whether he will take home an Oscar for Actor in a Leading Role for his performance in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” after losing to Mickey Rourke at the Golden Globes.

Pre-Oscar Internet Buzz Trend for Best Actor and Best Actress Nominees, Among All Blogs

Other Online-related notes on the Oscars from Nielsen:

• Online interest in the Oscars is up significantly this year, with unique visitors to oscars.movies.yahoo.com growing 462 percent year-over-year, from 832,000 in January 2008 to 4.7 million in January 2009. The top page driving traffic was a blog post about Angelina Jolie’s unusual fashion choice to wear her dress backwards for the SAG Awards.
• Oscar.com also enjoyed double digit growth in January, from 471,000 unique visitors last year to 1.0 million in 2009.
• Collectively, the movie Web sites of the films nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress drew 450,000 unique visitors in January. Last year the Oscars were still under the cloud of the writers’ strike, which may account for increased interest this year.