. By the end of 2011, Nielsen predicts smartphones to overtake feature phones in the U.S. market.

Where does Palm's WebOS which runs on the Palm Pre fit? It is included under Palm OS, under Linux or not included at all?

I would like to point out the skew in the data here… There are four different phones made by Apple running the iPhone OS (of various versions). And there are countless models of phones running the Android OS (also of various versions). iPhone OS runs on one network (AT&T) here in the United States, and Android is available on all carriers (speculation, but I think is a safe assumption) capable of serving smart phones.

you couldn't pry my BB out of my hands!

Not skewed, pure choice.
Buy into the walled garden or choose for the many other options out there. This shows many like the Android…no matter what phone its on..Andriod comes with choice…iPhone, no so much. You are using the same arguement for desktop's. MAC OS is only avialable via one company….Windows, Linus…= choice.

Of course all your are saying is because of Apple's marketing strategy. You could also argue that Apple was established well before Android came to market so they had plenty of time to build their market share. No doubt Android is the fastest growing smart phone OS and will eventually take over the top spot. Apple's plan to release a Verizon phone will surely help them but I don't think they can stop the Android from taking the top spot.

For Steven: I think that has a lot to do with what's making android so prevailent so fast. Also those same points make Android a little bit of a challenge to write software for.

It's amazing how well iPhone has done with a single manufacturer & a single US carrier. Over the long haul those could be stumbling blocks for #1 market share spot but certainly no problem for apple's profitability even in #2 or #3 spot as they don't have to share.

Android surpasses iPhone. No surprise here. Android is a platform available across multiple handsets, each handset targeting a market segment. iPhone is one device targeting a single target segment.

I'm not surprised at all. I've used both iPhone OS and Android. Android is very good. It has not emphasized visual polish to the extent that the iphone does. But the interface *works* really well. It very conveniently allows you to do what you need to do with less awareness of the boundaries of applications. The notification system is brilliant. People often make the analogy that Android is to the iPhone OS as Windows was to Mac OS. That analogy has some value when considering the business models. But the Windows OS was generally poorer than Mac OS. Windows was klugy and old with roots in dos. Android is functionally better than iPhone OS. Android phones aren't just successful because they are good enough and cheap. They also happen to work really well.

It's a good point but it makes things worse for Apple, not better. With some of the most technologically advanced companies like HTC, Samsung, and Motorola (and Google, of course) continually making new products and innovating for Android, Apple's phones, which have already been overtaken in some areas, will continue to fall farther and farther behind. Apple sycophants will be the only ones buying iPhones in a few months; no new buyer not already on the Apple bandwagon will have any need to settle for an iPhone. I'm not saying iPhones aren't excellent with great interfaces; I"m saying Apple will not by itself be able to out-innovate all of these other companies combined.

antiquated technology has that effect sometimes. Go 42%!

That's not skewing – that's the reality of the market.
Apple is an enclosed ecosystem – one carrier, one phone. You bought the phone, but it's owned by Apple. They'll tell you what to install, which network to use, etc.
Android is the extreme opposite – open OS, multiple choices for equipment AND networks. You can modify not only apps, but the OS itself.

The last graph ("Desired") shows the (familiar) brand loyalty that Apple customers have. Partially explained by the high quality of the Apple products, partially by fashion and cognitive dissonance.
It would be interesting to follow-up on the survey responders, and see what was their actual choice of phone given their earlier expressed preference.

Nielsen – do your thing! :-)

It will be interesting to see the loyalty figures after the iPhone 4 fiasco has been accounted for. I'm guessing they won't be dented too far. Here's some Change Wave research amongst iPhone 4 users: http://tinyurl.com/iPhoneLoyalty

I like palm web os and blackberry os 6

How come all the PC manufactures and Microsoft didn’t out-innovate the mac?

it appears that blackberry users are die hard…

I wonder how much OS loyalty stems from users not wanting to give up expensive apps that they have already payed for…

Because MS Windows is not open source… HTC, SOny , Motorola have already helped in the innovation of Android… Have you seen the difference in the OS from 2 years ago until now.. THe OS has been innovating a lot faster than Apple's iOS.
It actually has pressured Apple into innovating faster with iOS .. Before Android Iphone did not even have apps.. After the ANdroid announcement and the support for the development.. Apple came out with the App Store and 3rd party apps…

I switched from an iPhone 3G to a new android-powered phone. I really liked the iPhone, but couldn't stand AT&T due to constant dropped calls. However, after seeing friends' android phones doing way more stuff than my iPhone could, I began to wonder if it still was even better than android. I finally switched to android and am very happy I did so.

When Gartner and IDC forecast market share, the one thing they agreed on is Android's market share will increase and Apple's will decline. When I first got my iPhone I thought it was one of the coolest gadgets I bought, ever. After using it for a few years, I have grown to hate it. I belong to that 6% of iPhone users whose next mobile will be an Android. It is kind of impressive when you walk past an Apple Store and it's packed with all those people. Until you get stuck there waiting for your iPhone to be repaired and you realize they are all waiting for their iPhone to be repaired too. Apple cannot be making money on the iPhone hardware because it is an unreliable piece of crap.

I'm not a big fan of Google but Android is Linux base Open Source which eases the comfort level when dealing with a company founded with a mantra "Don't Do Evil". Trust me the check's in the mail. I believe Google has surpassed Microsoft as the Evil Empire. Beware. In contrast, Apple is too stupid to be a threat.

My first true smartphone was Symbian, running on a Nokia 9290 Communicator, then on to a 9300. At the time, it was very impressive until I dropped the phone just one too many times. I tried Windows Mobile for a brief period (very brief, it was all I could do to find another operating system before throwing my phone against the wall out of frustration). That's when I first started on a Blackberry 8800, then 8820, 8900, and my current 9700. I have been wanting to go to Android for a while now, since my son has the G1 and it is simply amazing. Most of my co-workers have iphones, but I have been amazed by the lack of basic functionality in certain areas that my Blackberry excelled in. Most of that functionality has finally been implemented with the iPhone 4, but it just seems to me that, while Apple is playing catch-up on the basics (e.g. copy/paste, camera flash, still no physical keyboard), Android is innovating (e.g. Flash 10.1 support, UMA support, video calling over network as well as wi-fi). I will admit that the UMA support was my one hold-out to giving up my Blackberry in favor of an Android phone (I travel internationally), but Google has removed that as a deal-breaker, so Christmas will be very good to me and my family this year. Now I just hope a MyTouch 4G Slide comes out before Xmas, since I want the physical keyboard, but the video calling for my wife & I would be very nice as well.

What has kept me away from the iPhone is mainly Apple's one size fits all mentality. No physical keyboard, because Apple doesn't think I need it. AT&T only, because Apple doesn't think the network makes any difference. No UMA, because AT&T doesn't support it. If the iPhone came out on T-Mobile a year ago and sported a slide-out keyboard and UMA support, they might have sucked me in then. Now, they are so far behind Android in having what is important to me that their chances are slim to none.

In terms of the network, I can't see myself leaving T-Mobile. Their customer service has always been great – much better than my experiences with Sprint and Verizon (I don't even understand how Sprint is still in business – must be all the corporate contracts). Their UMA feature is awesome and they are the only ones who have it. And now, their data network has become the fastest among the big four, and its backwards compatible with most 3G phones (I get 17mbps in the DC area on my BB 9700). My son has sometimes connected his xBox 360 to his G1 via wi-fi because he says he gets less lag on the T-Mobile network than he does through our FiOS!

I would also like to see what feature phone owners have to say. What do they want to buy next?