I think the conclusion from this data is not that the iPhone doesn’t matter, is that it doesn’t drive subscriber growth for a carrier as much as one might expect given all of the hype around it. There is no doubt Apple has accelerated our arrival into a new era of awareness for mobile Internet and applications, but there are still a lot of mobile users out there who are indifferent to smartphones and the iPhone.

Assuming that about 25% of the installed mobile phone base are smartphones, and about 17% of those smartphones are iPhones, that’s means a little over 4% of all mobile phones are iPhones. And while smartphone share will continue to grow quickly, and probably iPhones, that still is a very small segment of carriers’ subscriber bases today. One can argue that having the iPhone and smartphones in its phone lineup is very important for carriers, it is not a major factor for a vast majority of mobile users today. As a carrier, if you want to grow your subscriber base today you must first be competitive on pricing, family plans and payment options.

Yes, marketers must increasingly target specific segments with tailored messages and offers, and yes the driver rankings for these segments (e.g. smartphone users, high-ARPU users) may be different from the rankings.

But my feeling is that they won’t be significantly different. Price sensitivity among smartphone users was obviously a major consideration in Apple’s iPhone pricing, as it is now with carriers’ data plan pricing. Price will always be a significant factor with any segment, especially in today’s economy. I think network quality is also still very important to mobile users. Its ranking likely fell because 1.) it is now considered a hygiene factor that all carriers are roughly meeting, or at least perceived to be meeting; 2.) carriers’ continued advertising focus on plans and prices; 3.) increased interest in smartphones due to Apple, RIM, etc.; and 4.) a very tight economy. Good network quality is now one of those things people don’t think about unless they don’t have it.

Also, “specific phone” is a very vague criteria. Besides the iPhone, there is very few phone that people ask by name. I also disagree that “specific phone” in 2006 is a valid representation of whether iPhone is important or not. Before iPhone, there were other phones that were the cool phones. Remember the Razr? I know, that may not be 2006. But, iPhone could very well now fill the void of being the new cool phone, which means the availability of the current cool phone matters, and whoever carries it matters.

Also, the data does not support the question that’s being posed. If the question is “does iPhone matter”?, then the question should be if all else equal, would you choose a specific carrier because of the iPhone availablity.

Scott