These are valid points you both make.

During the second quarter of this year, 85% of U.S consumers told Nielsen they believed a recession had already begun – perhaps as a result, 35% reported they planned to spend less on holiday shopping this year.

But since our holiday spending survey was conducted in early September, economic conditions have deteriorated significantly — with several major bank collapses or near-collapses worldwide. Given that, we expect that if we had conducted our survey again in early October, consumer response for “less holiday spending” would have been higher than what we reported from our early September survey results.

Incidentally, Nielsen will be releasing our “Global Consumer Confidence Survey” next week, which was fielded during the turbulent economic events of late September and early October. This data will give us the most current read on consumers’ perceptions of the current economic conditions — and we’ll be reporting those findings right here on NielsenWire.

For the time being, one thing is certain — those selling discretionary items will have to work much harder to capture spending this season.

-James Russo and Todd Hale, Nielsen