Is the Super Bowl the ultimate marketing ecosystem of paid and earned media? 2010 will be huge test, as the new reality of consumer expression and cross-platform integration create a powerful new dynamic hovering over the largest single-spot ad spend on record.

What marketers urgently need to understand is not only total ROI on that mega-media buy, but the full return on all the other activities triggered or reinforced by this paid media stimulus. How does paid media drive earned media? And to what degree does earned media halo future paid media efforts? These are critical questions that Marketers need answers to – along with a metric or common yardstick that quantifies the blending of the two.

Getting Real about Real-Time
In an more agile and flexible marketing environment, where there’s actually a chance of making real-time changes based on available data, marketers need to understand the real-time role they can play in making tactical interventions to grow earned media impressions and ultimately, increase odds of success.

Twitter brings a fresh dynamic and promise to Super Bowl media efficiency. The platform reached a reach tipping point in 2009 – so much so that marketers increasingly use it to fan the flames for events, interact with brand mavens or enthusiasts, and, in a growing number of cases, manage or sandbag tension points like customer disappointment or service shortfalls.

Tweets are also increasingly embedding themselves in Facebook feeds, blog entries, and Google search results, magnifying their long-term value. Translated to the Super Bowl, positive playback about Super Bowl ads can have a “latency” effect and provide brands with an almost endless annuity of “earned media.” The same dynamic will be at work with Facebook brand fan pages, which can see massive growth – hundreds of thousands – following a major ad campaign, offline or online.

Quantifying the Big Picture
In the end, Super Bowl spots today need to meet two distinct “torture” tests – one measurable based on traditional TV scoring, and another based on unique dynamics of cross-platform engagement, most notably word-of-mouth and conversation. On a pure TV-impression alone, one can argue that the Super Bowl has become such an unusual magnet for consumer attention and recall – the one day of the year that we “celebrate” advertising – that it is worth every penny. Indeed, curiosity, anticipation, guessing, nostalgia come into play big time before this festival of brand persuasion. Consumers, after all, want to see the ads, almost akin to seeing a movie.

The entertainment halo certainly matters. Over the last three years, Nielsen IAG research found Super Bowl spots achieved a 31% higher break-through and 93% higher likability than the typical ad on television. But it’s not that simple. Timing is also a factor. First and second quarter spots yield more yardage than second half spots, and 4th quarter spots are about comparable to a “normal” TV buy in terms of generating ad recall. The viewer’s ability to associate the correct brand with the ad, and reported likability levels similarly wane over the course of the game. Surprisingly, branded integration effectiveness shows an opposite trend. Recall and brand opinion are lowest pre-game, moderate during the game, and big gainers post game. For Marketers, the mix is clear: focus on ads early and branded integration efforts late. Lastly, the SuperBowl is a touchdown for brands generally: purchase consideration for the average ad the week after increases +13% versus the week prior.

So that’s the foundation of pure “paid” measurements. What about the “earned” side of the equation, which factors in free media, consumer conversation, participation, and the like? Clearly, the Super Bowl in particular shines light across a far more complicated mix of marketing activity and user-engagement. Great copy finds life in other places.

An engaging, even participatory Pepsi game spot, for instance, might trigger a site visit, a Google search, a tweet, retweet, fan-page sign-up, or DVR rewind. It might trigger a desire to share, forward, discuss, critique, rate, or review. It might bleed over into the social media stream of a New York Times or any media reporter (a growing number of whom leverage social media across all platforms.)

The good news is that this digital trail can be quantified with high levels of precision – by volume, reach, tone, source, or even depth of brand advocacy. And much of this can be delivered in real-time, empowering today’s brand manager to make real-time changes or adjustments to the site. Last year, for instance, a large percentage of brands buying spots on the Super Bowl made real-time adjustments to their websites or social media efforts based on pre-game variables.

This year, Frito-Lay’s Doritos brand sits on the extreme of early-adjustments, as the four spots they are running are sourced from user-participation events and contests. In this case, the “earned media” is stimulating the paid side of the equation. Then again, this can work in reverse. When P&G’s Tide brand ran a highly engaging “Talking Stain” spot two years ago, it triggered a user-generated contest that created an impressive annuity of online video that quickly reshaped the brand’s search results for the better. Three years ago, Nationwide insurance estimated that the “earned media” dividend from their Kevin Federline spot totaled over $20 million dollars.

So in the end, it’s just not as simple as “buying” high-reach media. The broader ecosystems truly matter. This year, Nielsen is putting its biggest effort into measuring and quantifying the full return of Super Bowl advertising, combining a comprehensive suite of paid media and earned media metrics into a total “engagement” score. And we don’t intend to stop at the Super Bowl. Over the course of 2010, we’ll be applying our new cross-platform engagement metrics across our work on the Winter Olympics, Academy Awards, and the World Cup.

Webinar: Learn more about Nielsen’s comprehensive approach to the Super Bowl. Join Pete Blackshaw and Randall Beard for a webinar Maximizing Advertising ROI in a Paid vs. Earned Media Environment on December 8 at 2:00PM EST.

An average of over 19 million U.S. viewers watched the six games of this year’s World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees, the most since an average of 25.4 million people saw the Red Sox sweep the Cardinals in 2004. Game 4 of the series was also the most watched single World Series game (22.5 million viewers) since 2004.

A legendary 6-RBI game by Hideki Matsui in Game 6 propelled the Yankee DH from a postseason afterthought to World Series MVP. The series-clinching performance resounded throughout the internet as Matsui’s buzz soared across blogs and message boards in the hours after the final out:

Of all the players participating in the World Series, Alex Rodriguez delivered the most buzz. As A-Rod marched through October on his quest toward his first championship ring, his internet buzz was at a level three times higher than any other Yankee or Phillie. Surprisingly, the next-closest player in terms of buzz during the postseason was pitcher A.J. Burnett, who saw his share of ups and downs throughout the playoffs. Derek Jeter’s on-field steadiness translated to the blogosphere with the third-highest buzz of any World Series participant. The most buzzed-about Phillie was second baseman Chase Utley, whose five-homerun performance in the Fall Classic had many wondering if he could take MVP honors back to the losing city.

The top-market Yankees, with almost 20 million viewers in the New York City area (6.5% of the US), boasted the most viewers per game of all MLB teams during the regular season.  In 2009, the Yankees received an average audience of 445,000 viewers on YES in New York . Their following has continued to grow in the playoffs, with an average of 2.1 million New Yorkers tuning into the ALCS on FOX, with nearly 3 million for the decisive Game 6, despite the hometown Giants playing simultaneously on Sunday Night Football.

And the Pinstripes stretch out in all directions beyond New York’s five boroughs.  In Hartford/New Haven and Buffalo, where YES also broadcasts games during the regular season, the Yankees averaged 11.8, and 8.9 household ratings, respectively, during the ALCS on FOX – both well above the Metered Market Average of 7.7.

MLB WORLD SERIES VIEWERSHIP ON FOX SINCE 2001
(Winning team in BOLD)

Meanwhile, Philadelphia may relish the role of underdog on the field, but it is, after all, the fourth largest market (7.4 million viewers) and home to the defending World Series champions.  The Phillies themselves have long played second fiddle to the NFL’s Eagles, and while the city no doubt bleeds Eagle green, there is an increasing amount of red mixed in. The Phillies’ 7.1 household rating this season for games on Comcast SportsNet more than doubled their 2003 average, and was up 25% from 2008.

This year’s playoffs have even seen the Phillies putting up Eagle-esque viewing numbers:  The NLCS averaged a 29.6 household rating in the Philly market, the highest local rating for any team in the playoffs, and up 13% from their 2008 NLCS against the Dodgers.

The pros aren’t the only ones enjoying the spoils of America’s pigskin passion. Among college football’s marquee games this past weekend, USC-OHIO St. delivered ESPN 10.6 million viewers on Saturday, the largest cable audience for a regular or post-season college football game ever.  And Notre Dame-Michigan was seen by 8.4 million viewers, up 58% from the two schools’ match up last year.

NFC Rival Philadelphia Eagles were second in terms of total buzz volume, due in part to their signing of Michael Vick, who was atop the list of NFL player buzz.  This summer saw his release from prison, his reinstatement to the league, and his signing with the Eagles, and fans not shy about voicing their opinion on both sides of the issue.

In terms of television viewership, Pittsburgh, which kicked off this year’s season with Tennessee, continued to live up to its reputation as a football-crazed city, with the Steelers leading all teams in local markets ratings last season on their way to the Super Bowl. During 16 regular season games, the six-time Super Bowl champs were watched on average by 36.8% of Pittsburgh households.

[update: For the season opener on 9/10/09 - the Steelers' hometown viewership was 49.6%]

Last Thursday, when the Eagles announced the signing of Michael Vick during a preseason game, it set off a media storm locally and nationally. The game itself was seen by 647,000 viewers in Philadelphia, a 63% increase over the Eagles’ first pre-season game in 2008. Recent online buzz was also high. According to Nielsen Buzzmetrics, the August buzz surrounding Vick overshadowed chatter following his release from prison earlier in the year.

Whether or not Michael Vick is able to rehabilitate his image, the best news for the Eagles may be that despite a risky signing, reports say they have retained all of their corporate sponsors. In fact, Vick has already had an indirect affect on the exposure of Eagles sponsors: his press conference delivered exposure time not only for the backdrop sponsor, but also for the naming rights sponsor of the Eagles’ practice facility which hosted the event.

Just as the buzz began to subside around Michael Vick, news broke on Tuesday afternoon that Brett Favre, after stating more than once that he’d stay retired, was on a plane to the Minnesota Vikings’ training camp, pushing online discussion to levels nearly as high as Michael Vick. Favre’s press conference was seen live on national cable and local broadcast television.

Minnesota television is still buzzing. “Brett Favre” was referenced 452 times on TV in the market alone on August 18-19, according to Nielsen Grabix, which monitors closed captioning. The Vikings and their sponsors are no doubt hoping that the increased interest Favre brings will translate to more eyeballs for their ads and signage. Last year, in his first “un-retirement” with the NY Jets, Favre contributed to a 17% boost in New York viewership compared to the year prior.

With these two signings Philadelphia and Minnesota proved that they were teams willing to take calculated risks which delivered increased exposure for their sponsors, and they hope in the end, a Super Bowl.

• Madden NFL 10 dominates the sports genre in several metrics, including unaided and aided awareness and definite purchase interest among active gamers.

• Unaided awareness for Madden NFL 10 for the week of August 2nd is a very robust 14% overall and a whopping 31% among Males 18 to 24. The next highest title mentioned during the same time period, Wii Sports Resort (released July 26), has roughly half the unaided awareness among active gamers (8%).

Platform Preference & Age Differences

• In terms of platform preference, 30% of over 9,200 gamers interested in purchasing Madden NFL 10 indicate Xbox 360 as their system of choice. This outpaces PS3 (23%), PS2 (20%) and Wii (17%).
• In terms of age, younger gamers (13 to 24) over-index for the Xbox 360 version, with the PS3 skewing older (18 to 34). Gamers 35 to 54 indicate Wii as their preferred platform (24%) just above Xbox 360 (23%), PS2 (22%) and PS3 (19%).
• Among the always desirable male 18 to 24 gamers, Xbox 360 had the highest platform choice for Madden NFL 10 at 42%, with PS3 (28%) and PS2 (15%) following behind.

Purchase Urgency – Some like it hot… (off the presses)

• 22% of gamers interested in purchasing Madden NFL 10 indicate they would either pre-order the game or buy it during the first week of its release. Another 29% indicated they would buy it in new condition after the first week of release, showing that over 50% of interested gamers have a high urgency to purchase the game early.

On July 22nd, when Rubin first reported that Mets VP of Player Personnel Tony Bernazard challenged players on the team’s minor league affiliate to a fight, the NY Daily News received no spike in online chatter according to Nielsen Buzzmetrics.

But during a July 27th press conference announcing the dismissal of Bernazard, Minaya poured fuel on the fire, by accusing reporter Adam Rubin (in attendance) of writing in self-motivation to get Bernazard’s job. The blogs began to boil, and buzz surrounding the Daily News doubled.

On television, national sports channels and local stations in New York ran with the story. According to Nielsen’s Grabix, which tracks over the air audio mentions correlated with minute by minute viewership data; the Daily News was referenced 24 times delivering a total of 41.9 Gross Rating Points (GRPs) in the New York Market on 7/27 — or roughly 3.6 million Gross Household viewers in New York.*

With dollars tight in a down economy and a transforming print industry, bloggers, word of mouth, and news coverage provided organic, free advertising. For the Daily News, the work of one reporter and a memorable press conference brought their paper to the top of the sports news cycle for at least one day.

*The same viewer exposed to multiple programs that mentioned the “Daily News” is counted each time.

An average of 14.6 million people watched the Midsummer Classic on Tuesday, the largest audience since the infamous 2002 game in Milwaukee that ended in a tie. Ratings in the game’s host city of St. Louis were especially high with 37% of all TV households tuning in to the game. It was the largest rating for the game’s host city since 2001 when 38.4% of Seattle households tuned in as the game was played in the Emerald City.

MLB HALF-SEASON RATINGS REVIEW
At MLB’s halfway mark, St. Louis again proved its passion for baseball, ranking behind only Boston as the top-rated professional baseball market. While an average of 9.5 percent of Boston households tuned in to Red Sox games so far this season, the Cardinals drew an impressive 7.4 percent of St. Louis homes.

TOP HALF-SEASON MLB MARKET RATINGS

But when looking at percent growth from this time last year, several surprising teams move to the top:

-The Texas Rangers, with one of baseball’s most exciting lineups, are enjoying a 50% increase in viewership in Dallas, the most year-over-year growth for any MLB team.

-The San Francisco Giants lead the NL wildcard thanks to superior pitching, contributing to 27% higher ratings. When Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum takes the mound, their average rating jumps an additional 9%.

-The Kansas City Royals’ ratings are up 23% despite trailing in the AL Central. The Royals’ ratings increase an additional 8% when Sports Illustrated cover boy Zack Greinke starts.

-The league-leading Los Angeles Dodgers showed no ill effects from the absence of Manny Ramirez, both on the field and on TV, where ratings have increased 20%, creating more ratings distance between the Angels, their in-market rivals.

-The Chicago White Sox are up 12% over 2008, and 27% over 2007, as they continue to close the gap on their cross town rival’s rating dominance.

BIGGEST GAIN IN MLB MARKET FIRST HALF RATINGS, 2008 VS. 2009

If you have not heard of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) by now, chances are you will be hearing about it in the near future. After breaking into the mainstream with The Ultimate Fighter reality series in 2005, an analysis of online buzz shows that the UFC continues to make great strides in popularity.

Backed by cable television programming and monthly pay-per-view events, the UFC has steadily gained online buzz during the past 18 months. Since 2008, UFC buzz has trended upward and peaked with the UFC 94 event held on January 31, 2009, which featured a bout between Georges St. Pierre, the welterweight champion, and B.J. Penn, the lightweight champion.

The UFC’s growth is actually even more impressive when compared against more well established sports leagues such as the MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL and NASCAR. When comparing the first six months of 2008 to the first six months of 2009, UFC online buzz jumped 93 percent and is the only sports organization to exhibit a double digit gain.

*Buzz is compared from January 2008 through June 2008 (H108) to January 2009 through June 2009 (H109)

It is appropriate to ask how much of the UFC’s increase can be attributed to a rise in popularity for its sport, Mixed Martial Arts (MMA)? Looking at the same time frame, MMA mentions increased 41 percent, which represents stronger growth than other sports, but still illustrates that the UFC brand is growing at a quicker rate.

With most fight oriented sports, intriguing match-ups and promotions are key to an event’s success. The UFC has done its best to “own” its sport by signing many of the world’s top fighters and using its octagon-shaped cage as a key branding point. Beyond these elements, the UFC also utilizes its own president, Dana White, to be the franchise’s most visible public figure. Although Dana White has received his share of heat for sometimes being too vocal, his name receives far more online buzz than commissioners from much larger sports organizations do.

*Buzz is from January 2008 through June 2009

Another key to the UFC’s success has been highly anticipated events featuring the sport’s top fighters. To celebrate its one hundredth pay-per-view match, the upcoming UFC 100 promises to be one of the biggest events in their 16 year history, featuring a heavyweight title match between Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir and a middleweight title match between Georges St. Pierre and Thiago Alves. Although the UFC 100 event won’t be held until July 11, 2009, anticipatory buzz has already outpaced that of overall discussion for seven of the past eight pay-per-view events.

* Buzz is from November 2008 through June 2009

Becoming the “fastest growing sports franchise” is not an easy feat. Sustaining the same level of growth over time may prove to be difficult for the UFC, especially as competing MMA organizations such as Affliction and Strikeforce attempt to capitalize on the sport’s success. However, with strong events on the horizon like the UFC 100, and increased coverage by the mainstream media, the UFC appears well positioned to continue its rise to the top of the sports world.